Upset Brief · MI-11 · Ethan Baker (R) vs. Jeremy Moss (D)

A long shot on the math: it takes a 19.2-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
79,890
net votes to find
36
days left, ballots already coming in
Where
  1. 01
    Troy
    Starting line Moss +12. 4.0% split their ticket.
    +918
  2. 02
    Waterford Township (Oakland County)
    Starting line Baker +3. 4.3% split their ticket.
    +799
  3. 03
    Farmington Hills
    Starting line Moss +32. 3.0% split their ticket.
    +683
  4. 04
    West Bloomfield Township (Oakland County)
    Starting line Moss +19. 3.1% split their ticket.
    +646
  5. 05
    Royal Oak
    Starting line Moss +36. 3.3% split their ticket.
    +610
  6. 06
    Bloomfield Township (Oakland County)
    Starting line Moss +10. 4.1% split their ticket.
    +604

The top 12 cities and townships carry 83% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    6,541 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Moss today.
    +6,541
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 3,966 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and townships where Baker's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +203
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and townships that lean Baker's way.
    +744

Plus a national shift of 19.2 points of margin (72,403 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Baker wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Moss.
  2. In White Lake Township (Oakland County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 19.2 points toward Baker's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    287 precincts, R² 0.992, 45 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -115,894 to -28,901 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 15
    Baker $121,125 cash on hand; Moss $352,517.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    13,229 households, 39,687 dials, about 2,080 live conversations: an estimated $5,575 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $5,575 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Michigan races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Michigan Bureau of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.