Michigan · U.S. House · District 11 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Ethan Baker.

Q: Can Ethan Baker win Michigan's 11th Congressional District in 2026?

Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 7,488 net votes against a gap of 79,890; the rest would take a 19.2-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.

Q: Where are the votes Ethan Baker needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Troy, Waterford Township (Oakland County), Farmington Hills, West Bloomfield Township (Oakland County), Royal Oak. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

Q: How many voters does Ethan Baker need to persuade?

About 3,270 voters who lean Jeremy Moss today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 6,541 persuadable voters leaning Jeremy Moss.

Q: When does early voting start in Michigan in 2026?

Michigan voters can vote absentee with no excuse; ballots have been available since September 24, 2026, and must reach the city or township clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3. Every community offers early in-person voting at least October 24 through November 1, and some start as early as October 5. Online and mail registration closes October 19; after that, voters can register in person at their clerk's office through 8 p.m. on Election Day.

Q: Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Michigan Bureau of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Moss starts 21.1 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 7,488 net votes toward Baker, a 2.0-point gain. Winning outright would take a 19.2-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Baker the one standing if one comes.

79,890

net votes between Baker and a win

days to election day. Absentee voting opened September 24.

21.1 pts

Moss lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Michigan races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 19.2-point national wave.

Odds today<1%

Odds with the plan<1%

Net votes to find79,890

WhereTroy, Waterford Township (Oakland County), Farmington Hills

Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Moss +21.1. Ethan Baker needs 79,890 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.

The number

188,963 votes.

That is half of the 377,925 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Baker stands today, and what is missing:

146,311 Ethan Baker baseline

226,201 Jeremy Moss baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

<1% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Baker wins in

<1%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

<1%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Baker short by 71,870.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

6,541

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 6,541

Who. 6,541 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Moss today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Baker needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Moss.

Mobilize

203

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 3,966

Who. At least 3,966 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and townships where Baker's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

744

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 2,124

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and townships that lean Baker's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 7,488 net votes against a gap of 79,890. Still 72,402 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 19.2 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 cities and townships carry 83% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Troypersuade
Starting line Moss +12. 4.0% split their ticket.
+918
02
Waterford Township (Oakland County)persuade
Starting line Baker +3. 4.3% split their ticket.
+799
03
Farmington Hillspersuade
Starting line Moss +32. 3.0% split their ticket.
+683
04
West Bloomfield Township (Oakland County)persuade
Starting line Moss +19. 3.1% split their ticket.
+646
05
Royal Oakpersuade
Starting line Moss +36. 3.3% split their ticket.
+610
06
Bloomfield Township (Oakland County)persuade
Starting line Moss +10. 4.1% split their ticket.
+604
07
White Lake Township (Oakland County)persuade
Starting line Baker +15. 4.3% split their ticket. About 3,636 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+569
08
Commerce Township (Oakland County)persuade
Starting line Baker +9. 4.1% split their ticket.
+519
09
Birminghampersuade
Starting line Moss +17. 4.0% split their ticket.
+269
10
Madison Heightspersuade
Starting line Moss +20. 3.5% split their ticket.
+232
11
Oak Parkpersuade
Starting line Moss +65. 2.6% split their ticket.
+188
12
Berkleypersuade
Starting line Moss +37. 3.3% split their ticket.
+170

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Troy carries the most.

Troy gives this plan more net votes than any other community: 918. It sits at Moss +12 on our starting line, and 4.0 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

White Lake Township (Oakland County) is a turnout target.

Baker's side leads White Lake Township (Oakland County) by about 15 points on our starting line, and it cast about 3,636 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 181 votes there.

Waterford Township (Oakland County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the cities and townships in this plan, Waterford Township (Oakland County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 4.3 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 15, 2026, Moss had $353K in cash on hand to Baker's $121K. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Baker's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 287
Slope: 0.992
R²: 0.992
Residual SD: 2.3 pts
Crossover precincts: 45

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Baker's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Ballots are already coming in.

Now to October 9
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities and townships. Every conversation tags the voter: with Baker, with Moss, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list, starting now: ballots are already being cast.
October 10 to 23
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 6,541 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 24 to 30
Bank the ballots
Absentee ballots have been available since September 24, with no excuse needed, and every community offers early in-person voting at least October 24 through November 1. Absentee ballots must reach the clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 31 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 3,966 of them live where Baker is favored. Absentee ballots must reach the city or township clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Voters can register in person at their clerk's office and vote the same day.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voters are asked for photo ID but can sign an affidavit instead, and same-day registration is available at the clerk's office. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 16.1 points; Slotkin carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 17.5 points; Whitmer carried the 2022 governor's race by 29.3 points.

Baker wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Moss.
In White Lake Township (Oakland County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
It would take a national shift of about 19.2 points toward Baker's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

2,080 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 39,687 dials to 13,229 households, before the last ballot is cast.

13K

households on the target list

40K

dials across three attempts

2,080

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $5,575 at our published rates: 13,229 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Ethan Baker (R)

Mayor of Troy since 2019 (re-elected 2023) after four years on the Troy City Council; earlier worked as a special assistant to former President Ronald Reagan in California.

Cash on hand $121,125 and $141,876 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite

Jeremy Moss (D)

State senator since 2019 and president pro tempore of the Michigan Senate since 2023, the first openly gay person elected to the Michigan Senate; he served in the Michigan House from 2015 to 2018 and was elected to the Southfield City Council in 2011 at age 25. A Detroit-born Southfield resident and Michigan State University journalism graduate.

Cash on hand $352,517 and $1,485,178 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Farid Ishac (L)

Waterford automotive engineer with 37 years of experience who holds an MBA from Wayne State University.

FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Ryan Teasdale (G)

FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Anil Kumar (I)

Physician (M.D., Wayne State University), educator and small business owner who has served on the Wayne State University Board of Governors since 2019.

Cash on hand $407,720 and $712,923 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 27, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Moss +21.1. Ethan Baker needs 79,890 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.

Questions

Can Ethan Baker win Michigan's 11th Congressional District in 2026?

Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 7,488 net votes against a gap of 79,890; the rest would take a 19.2-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.

Where are the votes Ethan Baker needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Troy, Waterford Township (Oakland County), Farmington Hills, West Bloomfield Township (Oakland County), Royal Oak. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Ethan Baker need to persuade?

About 3,270 voters who lean Jeremy Moss today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 6,541 persuadable voters leaning Jeremy Moss.

When does early voting start in Michigan in 2026?

Michigan voters can vote absentee with no excuse; ballots have been available since September 24, 2026, and must reach the city or township clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3. Every community offers early in-person voting at least October 24 through November 1, and some start as early as October 5. Online and mail registration closes October 19; after that, voters can register in person at their clerk's office through 8 p.m. on Election Day.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Michigan Bureau of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Michigan Bureau of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.