A long shot on the math: it takes a 40.1-point national wave.

1. 01
   Dearborn

   Starting line Tlaib +21. 19.2% split their ticket.
   +3,355
2. 02
   Livonia

   Starting line Tlaib +2. 7.1% split their ticket.
   +2,149
3. 03
   Dearborn Heights

   Starting line Tlaib +23. 20.8% split their ticket.
   +1,328
4. 04
   Westland

   Starting line Tlaib +20. 5.1% split their ticket.
   +1,000
5. 05
   Garden City

   Starting line Hooper +2. 7.3% split their ticket.
   +524
6. 06
   Southfield Township (Oakland County)

   Starting line Tlaib +19. 9.3% split their ticket.
   +470

The top 11 cities and townships carry 100% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  8,940 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Tlaib today.
  +8,940
• M
  Mobilize

  Few cities and townships give Hooper's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
  +0
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.
  +1,150

Plus a national shift of 40.1 points of margin (115,234 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Hooper wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Tlaib.
2. It would take a national shift of about 40.1 points toward Hooper's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  408 precincts, R² 0.737, 36 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -149,282 to -81,583 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through July 15

  Hooper $8,381 cash on hand; Tlaib $3,434,433.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  14,605 households, 43,814 dials, about 2,296 live conversations: an estimated $6,155 at published rates.