Michigan · U.S. House · District 12 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for James D. Hooper.

Tlaib starts 43.6 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 10,090 net votes toward Hooper, a 3.5-point gain. Winning outright would take a 40.1-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Hooper the one standing if one comes.

125,325

net votes between Hooper and a win

days to election day. Absentee voting opened September 24.

43.6 pts

Tlaib lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Michigan races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 40.1-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find125,325

WhereDearborn, Livonia, Dearborn Heights

Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Tlaib +43.6. James D. Hooper needs 125,325 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

143,702 votes.

That is half of the 287,403 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Hooper stands today, and what is missing:

75,888 James D. Hooper baseline

201,212 Rashida Tlaib baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Hooper wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Hooper short by 115,427.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

8,940

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 8,940

Who. 8,940 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Tlaib today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Hooper needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Tlaib.

Mobilize

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 0

Who. Few cities and townships give Hooper's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

1,150

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 3,287

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 10,090 net votes against a gap of 125,325. Still 115,235 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 40.1 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

11 cities and townships carry 100% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Dearbornpersuade
Starting line Tlaib +21. 19.2% split their ticket.
+3,355
02
Livoniapersuade
Starting line Tlaib +2. 7.1% split their ticket.
+2,149
03
Dearborn Heightspersuade
Starting line Tlaib +23. 20.8% split their ticket.
+1,328
04
Westlandpersuade
Starting line Tlaib +20. 5.1% split their ticket.
+1,000
05
Garden Citypersuade
Starting line Hooper +2. 7.3% split their ticket.
+524
06
Southfield Township (Oakland County)persuade
Starting line Tlaib +19. 9.3% split their ticket.
+470
07
Southfieldpersuade
Starting line Tlaib +73. 2.3% split their ticket.
+442
08
Redford Township (Wayne County)persuade
Starting line Tlaib +51. 3.2% split their ticket.
+387
09
Detroitpersuade
Starting line Tlaib +88. 0.9% split their ticket.
+338
10
Inksterpersuade
Starting line Tlaib +77. 1.6% split their ticket.
+63
11
Lathrup Villagepersuade
Starting line Tlaib +72. 2.3% split their ticket.
+34

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Dearborn carries the most.

Dearborn gives this plan more net votes than any other community: 3,355. It sits at Tlaib +21 on our starting line, and 19.2 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Dearborn Heights splits its ticket the most.

Of the cities and townships in this plan, Dearborn Heights has the highest share of ticket splitters: 20.8 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 15, 2026, Tlaib had $3.43 million in cash on hand to Hooper's $8,381. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 10,090 net votes. The gap is 125,325. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 3.5 points of margin, and a head start if the national mood breaks.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Hooper's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 408
Slope: 0.770
R²: 0.737
Residual SD: 19.5 pts
Crossover precincts: 36

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Hooper's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Ballots are already coming in.

Now to October 9
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities and townships. Every conversation tags the voter: with Hooper, with Tlaib, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list, starting now: ballots are already being cast.
October 10 to 23
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 8,940 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 24 to 30
Bank the ballots
Absentee ballots have been available since September 24, with no excuse needed, and every community offers early in-person voting at least October 24 through November 1. Absentee ballots must reach the clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 31 to November 2
Turn them out
The last push goes to every identified supporter who has not voted yet; few drop-off voters live where Hooper is favored, so this is a chase, not a turnout drive. Absentee ballots must reach the city or township clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Voters can register in person at their clerk's office and vote the same day.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voters are asked for photo ID but can sign an affidavit instead, and same-day registration is available at the clerk's office. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 38.0 points; Slotkin carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 40.8 points; Whitmer carried the 2022 governor's race by 52.3 points.

Hooper wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Tlaib.
It would take a national shift of about 40.1 points toward Hooper's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

2,296 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 43,814 dials to 14,605 households, before the last ballot is cast.

15K

households on the target list

44K

dials across three attempts

2,296

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,155 at our published rates: 14,605 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

James D. Hooper (R)

Tradesman who grew up on Detroit's east side, worked in Eastern Market and the building trades, and served overseas with Samaritan's Purse in Liberia, including managing a water, sanitation and hygiene program.

Cash on hand $8,381 and $775 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Rashida Tlaib (D)

U.S. representative since 2019 and a former Michigan state representative (2009 to 2014); a Detroit native and attorney who graduated from Wayne State University and Western Michigan University Cooley Law School.

Cash on hand $3,434,433 and $2,756,214 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Brenda K. Sanders (G)

Former judge of Detroit's 36th District Court who practiced law in Detroit for 24 years; she holds a bachelor's degree from the University of Michigan (1980) and a law degree from the University of Detroit Mercy (1983).

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Marc Joseph Sosnowski (UST)

Dearborn business consultant born in Detroit, with a bachelor's degree from the University of Michigan-Dearborn (1978) and an MBA from Cornerstone University; longtime chancellor of his Knights of Columbus council.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Gary Walkowicz (WC)

FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 27, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Tlaib +43.6. James D. Hooper needs 125,325 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can James D. Hooper win Michigan's 12th Congressional District in 2026?

Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 10,090 net votes against a gap of 125,325; the rest would take a 40.1-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.

Where are the votes James D. Hooper needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Dearborn, Livonia, Dearborn Heights, Westland, Garden City. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does James D. Hooper need to persuade?

About 4,470 voters who lean Rashida Tlaib today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 8,940 persuadable voters leaning Rashida Tlaib.

When does early voting start in Michigan in 2026?

Michigan voters can vote absentee with no excuse; ballots have been available since September 24, 2026, and must reach the city or township clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3. Every community offers early in-person voting at least October 24 through November 1, and some start as early as October 5. Online and mail registration closes October 19; after that, voters can register in person at their clerk's office through 8 p.m. on Election Day.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Michigan Bureau of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Michigan Bureau of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.