Upset Brief · MI-02 · Ben Ambrose (D) vs. John Moolenaar (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 25.4-point national wave.

0%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
100,270
net votes to find
36
days left, ballots already coming in
Where
  1. 01
    Mount Pleasant
    Starting line Ambrose +29. 5.7% split their ticket. About 1,708 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +370
  2. 02
    Caledonia Township (Kent County)
    Starting line Moolenaar +29. 5.4% split their ticket.
    +260
  3. 03
    Algoma Township (Kent County)
    Starting line Moolenaar +26. 4.4% split their ticket.
    +162
  4. 04
    Union Township (Isabella County)
    Starting line Ambrose +6. 7.6% split their ticket.
    +158
  5. 05
    Cadillac
    Starting line Moolenaar +16. 7.0% split their ticket.
    +155
  6. 06
    Alma
    Starting line Moolenaar +4. 8.3% split their ticket.
    +137

The top 12 cities and townships carry 17% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    10,198 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Moolenaar today.
    +10,198
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 1,823 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and townships where Ambrose's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +170
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and townships that lean Ambrose's way.
    +1,012

Plus a national shift of 25.4 points of margin (88,890 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Ambrose wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Moolenaar.
  2. In Mount Pleasant, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 25.4 points toward Ambrose's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    385 precincts, R² 0.979, 64 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -129,399 to -47,605 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 15
    Ambrose $21,868 cash on hand; Moolenaar $1,905,561.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    17,326 households, 51,979 dials, about 2,724 live conversations: an estimated $6,870 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,870 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Michigan races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Michigan Bureau of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.