What it would take for Ben Ambrose.
Moolenaar starts 28.6 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 11,380 net votes toward Ambrose, a 3.2-point gain. Winning outright would take a 25.4-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Ambrose the one standing if one comes.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 25.4-point national wave.
175,289 votes.
That is half of the 350,576 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Ambrose stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
0% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 10,198 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Moolenaar today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Ambrose needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Moolenaar.
Who. At least 1,823 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and townships where Ambrose's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and townships that lean Ambrose's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 11,380 net votes against a gap of 100,270. Still 88,890 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 25.4 points that no campaign controls.
12 cities and townships carry 17% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+370Mount PleasantpersuadeStarting line Ambrose +29. 5.7% split their ticket. About 1,708 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 02+260Caledonia Township (Kent County)persuadeStarting line Moolenaar +29. 5.4% split their ticket.
- 03+162Algoma Township (Kent County)persuadeStarting line Moolenaar +26. 4.4% split their ticket.
- 04+158Union Township (Isabella County)persuadeStarting line Ambrose +6. 7.6% split their ticket.
- 05+155CadillacpersuadeStarting line Moolenaar +16. 7.0% split their ticket.
- 06+137AlmapersuadeStarting line Moolenaar +4. 8.3% split their ticket.
- 07+132Courtland Township (Kent County)persuadeStarting line Moolenaar +28. 4.5% split their ticket.
- 08+123GreenvillepersuadeStarting line Moolenaar +9. 6.8% split their ticket.
- 09+120LudingtonpersuadeStarting line Moolenaar +2. 5.7% split their ticket.
- 10+116Laketon Township (Muskegon County)persuadeStarting line Moolenaar +6. 4.9% split their ticket.
- 11+115Dalton Township (Muskegon County)persuadeStarting line Moolenaar +21. 4.9% split their ticket.
- 12+115Morton Township (Mecosta County)persuadeStarting line Moolenaar +29. 7.6% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Mount Pleasant carries the most.
Mount Pleasant gives this plan more net votes than any other community: 370. It sits at Ambrose +29 on our starting line, and 5.7 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Mount Pleasant is also the top turnout target.
Ambrose's side leads Mount Pleasant by about 29 points on our starting line, and it cast about 1,708 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 162 votes there.
Alma splits its ticket the most.
Of the cities and townships in this plan, Alma has the highest share of ticket splitters: 8.3 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of July 15, 2026, Moolenaar had $1.91 million in cash on hand to Ambrose's $22K. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Ambrose's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 385
- Slope
- 0.981
- R²
- 0.979
- Residual SD
- 2.5 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 64
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Ambrose's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Ballots are already coming in.
- Now to October 9Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities and townships. Every conversation tags the voter: with Ambrose, with Moolenaar, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list, starting now: ballots are already being cast.
- October 10 to 23Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 10,198 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
- October 24 to 30Bank the ballots
Absentee ballots have been available since September 24, with no excuse needed, and every community offers early in-person voting at least October 24 through November 1. Absentee ballots must reach the clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 31 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 1,823 of them live where Ambrose is favored. Absentee ballots must reach the city or township clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Voters can register in person at their clerk's office and vote the same day.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voters are asked for photo ID but can sign an affidavit instead, and same-day registration is available at the clerk's office. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 30.1 points; Rogers carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 28.4 points; Dixon carried the 2022 governor's race by 17.8 points.
- Ambrose wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Moolenaar.
- In Mount Pleasant, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- It would take a national shift of about 25.4 points toward Ambrose's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
2,724 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 51,979 dials to 17,326 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,870 at our published rates: 17,326 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Ben Ambrose (D)
A Hesperia native raised on a family farm who served nearly two decades in the U.S. Marine Corps infantry, retiring as a staff sergeant after deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan, and later led federal innovation work for the Department of Veterans Affairs and the Department of Defense; he holds degrees from Georgetown University and Johns Hopkins University.
Cash on hand $21,868 and $85,094 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.
John Moolenaar (R)
U.S. representative since 2015 and chairman of the House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party; he previously served on the Midland City Council (1997 to 2000), in the Michigan House (2003 to 2008) and in the Michigan Senate (2011 to 2014). A Midland native and former Dow Chemical chemist, he holds a chemistry degree from Hope College and a master's in public administration from Harvard.
Cash on hand $1,905,561 and $1,652,235 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.
Charlotte Magoon (G)
A registered nurse and community hospice nurse from Kent County with 17 years in nursing; she earned her BSN from Grand Valley State University in 2009 while raising a child as a single mother.
Richard Sills (NL)
A Farwell resident originally from the Cincinnati area who moved to Michigan in 1983; he has owned two meat processing plants, helped implement federal safety standards for the meat processing industry, worked in printing and marketing, and has been an ostrich farmer.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 27, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Moolenaar +28.6. Ben Ambrose needs 100,270 net votes. Odds 0% today, under 1% with the plan.
Questions
Can Ben Ambrose win Michigan's 2nd Congressional District in 2026?
Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 11,380 net votes against a gap of 100,270; the rest would take a 25.4-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.
Where are the votes Ben Ambrose needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Mount Pleasant, Caledonia Township (Kent County), Algoma Township (Kent County), Union Township (Isabella County), Cadillac. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Ben Ambrose need to persuade?
About 5,099 voters who lean John Moolenaar today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 10,198 persuadable voters leaning John Moolenaar.
When does early voting start in Michigan in 2026?
Michigan voters can vote absentee with no excuse; ballots have been available since September 24, 2026, and must reach the city or township clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3. Every community offers early in-person voting at least October 24 through November 1, and some start as early as October 5. Online and mail registration closes October 19; after that, voters can register in person at their clerk's office through 8 p.m. on Election Day.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Michigan Bureau of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Michigan Bureau of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Michigan Bureau of Elections, election results and data
- Michigan Department of State, elections
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
Race coverage
- Wikipedia: Michigan's 2nd congressional district
- Ballotpedia: Michigan's 2nd Congressional District election, 2026
- Ballotpedia: John Moolenaar
- Ballotpedia: Charlotte Magoon
- Ballotpedia: Richard Sills