Upset Brief · MI-03 · Terri DeBoer (R) vs. Hillary Scholten (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 9.2-point national wave.

7%
odds today
9%
odds with the plan
36,411
net votes to find
36
days left, ballots already coming in
Where
  1. 01
    Grand Rapids
    Starting line Scholten +43. 0.7% split their ticket.
    +443
  2. 02
    Byron Township (Kent County)
    Starting line DeBoer +29. 1.0% split their ticket. About 3,093 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +423
  3. 03
    Wyoming
    Starting line Scholten +10. 1.3% split their ticket.
    +311
  4. 04
    Allendale Township (Ottawa County)
    Starting line DeBoer +22. 1.1% split their ticket. About 2,967 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +295
  5. 05
    Fruitport Township (Muskegon County)
    Starting line DeBoer +13. 2.9% split their ticket. About 2,014 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +225
  6. 06
    Norton Shores
    Starting line Scholten +4. 2.5% split their ticket.
    +211

The top 12 cities and townships carry 62% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    2,225 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Scholten today.
    +2,225
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 14,030 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and townships where DeBoer's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,083
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and townships that lean DeBoer's way.
    +1,249

Plus a national shift of 9.2 points of margin (31,854 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. DeBoer wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Scholten.
  2. In Byron Township (Kent County) and Allendale Township (Ottawa County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 9.2 points toward DeBoer's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    271 precincts, R² 0.993, 40 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -72,079 to 7,874 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 15
    DeBoer $361,355 cash on hand; Scholten $1,356,573.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    15,213 households, 45,638 dials, about 2,391 live conversations: an estimated $6,032 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,032 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Michigan races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Michigan Bureau of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.