Michigan · U.S. House · District 3 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Terri DeBoer.

Scholten starts 10.5 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 4,557 net votes toward DeBoer, a 1.3-point gain. Winning outright would take a 9.2-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes DeBoer the one standing if one comes.

36,411

net votes between DeBoer and a win

days to election day. Absentee voting opened September 24.

10.5 pts

Scholten lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Michigan races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 9.2-point national wave.

Odds today7%

Odds with the plan9%

Net votes to find36,411

WhereGrand Rapids, Byron Township (Kent County), Wyoming

Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Scholten +10.5. Terri DeBoer needs 36,411 net votes. Odds 7% today, 9% with the plan.

The number

172,902 votes.

That is half of the 345,802 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where DeBoer stands today, and what is missing:

150,631 Terri DeBoer baseline

187,042 Hillary Scholten baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

7% today. 9% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

DeBoer wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: DeBoer short by 31,979.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

2,225

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 2,225

Who. 2,225 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Scholten today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. DeBoer needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Scholten.

Mobilize

1,083

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 14,030

Who. At least 14,030 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and townships where DeBoer's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

1,249

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 3,567

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and townships that lean DeBoer's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 4,557 net votes against a gap of 36,411. Still 31,854 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 9.2 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 cities and townships carry 62% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Grand Rapidspersuade
Starting line Scholten +43. 0.7% split their ticket.
+443
02
Byron Township (Kent County)mobilize
Starting line DeBoer +29. 1.0% split their ticket. About 3,093 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+423
03
Wyomingpersuade
Starting line Scholten +10. 1.3% split their ticket.
+311
04
Allendale Township (Ottawa County)mobilize
Starting line DeBoer +22. 1.1% split their ticket. About 2,967 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+295
05
Fruitport Township (Muskegon County)persuade
Starting line DeBoer +13. 2.9% split their ticket. About 2,014 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+225
06
Norton Shorespersuade
Starting line Scholten +4. 2.5% split their ticket.
+211
07
Kentwoodpersuade
Starting line Scholten +22. 1.1% split their ticket.
+188
08
Plainfield Township (Kent County)persuade
Starting line DeBoer +2. 1.0% split their ticket.
+175
09
Walkerpersuade
Starting line DeBoer +3. 1.6% split their ticket.
+152
10
Cannon Township (Kent County)mobilize
Starting line DeBoer +15. 0.9% split their ticket. About 1,693 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+151
11
Tallmadge Township (Ottawa County)mobilize
Starting line DeBoer +32. 0.8% split their ticket. About 829 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+131
12
Muskegonpersuade
Starting line Scholten +44. 1.7% split their ticket.
+127

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Grand Rapids carries the most.

Grand Rapids gives this plan more net votes than any other community: 443. It sits at Scholten +43 on our starting line, and 0.7 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Byron Township (Kent County) is a turnout target.

DeBoer's side leads Byron Township (Kent County) by about 29 points on our starting line, and it cast about 3,093 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 289 votes there.

Fruitport Township (Muskegon County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the cities and townships in this plan, Fruitport Township (Muskegon County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 2.9 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 15, 2026, Scholten had $1.36 million in cash on hand to DeBoer's $361K. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where DeBoer's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 271
Slope: 0.995
R²: 0.993
Residual SD: 2.5 pts
Crossover precincts: 40

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: DeBoer's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Ballots are already coming in.

Now to October 9
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities and townships. Every conversation tags the voter: with DeBoer, with Scholten, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list, starting now: ballots are already being cast.
October 10 to 23
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 2,225 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 24 to 30
Bank the ballots
Absentee ballots have been available since September 24, with no excuse needed, and every community offers early in-person voting at least October 24 through November 1. Absentee ballots must reach the clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 31 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 14,030 of them live where DeBoer is favored. Absentee ballots must reach the city or township clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Voters can register in person at their clerk's office and vote the same day.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voters are asked for photo ID but can sign an affidavit instead, and same-day registration is available at the clerk's office. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 7.8 points; Slotkin carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 7.2 points; Whitmer carried the 2022 governor's race by 12.6 points.

DeBoer wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Scholten.
In Byron Township (Kent County) and Allendale Township (Ottawa County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 9.2 points toward DeBoer's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

2,391 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 45,638 dials to 15,213 households, before the last ballot is cast.

15K

households on the target list

46K

dials across three attempts

2,391

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,032 at our published rates: 15,213 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Terri DeBoer (R)

Former West Michigan television meteorologist who forecast the region's weather for more than three decades, including nearly 30 years at WOOD-TV in Grand Rapids beginning in 1995, and the first woman in Michigan to earn the American Meteorological Society's Television Seal of Approval; she lives in Byron Center.

Cash on hand $361,355 and $551,697 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Hillary Scholten (D)

U.S. representative for Michigan's 3rd District since 2023 and a Grand Rapids native raised in Hudsonville; an attorney who worked at the U.S. Department of Justice and in private practice, with a B.A. from Gordon College and a J.D. from the University of Maryland.

Cash on hand $1,356,573 and $2,329,122 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Joe Jock (G)

FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 27, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Scholten +10.5. Terri DeBoer needs 36,411 net votes. Odds 7% today, 9% with the plan.

Questions

Can Terri DeBoer win Michigan's 3rd Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 4,557 net votes; the gap is 36,411. The rest would take a 9.2-point national shift.

Where are the votes Terri DeBoer needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Grand Rapids, Byron Township (Kent County), Wyoming, Allendale Township (Ottawa County), Fruitport Township (Muskegon County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Terri DeBoer need to persuade?

About 1,112 voters who lean Hillary Scholten today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 2,225 persuadable voters leaning Hillary Scholten.

When does early voting start in Michigan in 2026?

Michigan voters can vote absentee with no excuse; ballots have been available since September 24, 2026, and must reach the city or township clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3. Every community offers early in-person voting at least October 24 through November 1, and some start as early as October 5. Online and mail registration closes October 19; after that, voters can register in person at their clerk's office through 8 p.m. on Election Day.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Michigan Bureau of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Michigan Bureau of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.