Upset Brief · MI-04 · Sean McCann (D) vs. Bill Huizenga (R), incumbent

McCann can win. The plan uses 26 percent of what history allows.

50%
odds today
66%
odds with the plan
6,921
net votes to find
36
days left, ballots already coming in
Where
  1. 01
    Portage
    Starting line McCann +23. 7.7% split their ticket.
    +1,822
  2. 02
    Kalamazoo
    Starting line McCann +64. 4.8% split their ticket. About 7,843 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +723
  3. 03
    Texas Township (Kalamazoo County)
    Starting line McCann +10. 7.6% split their ticket.
    +719
  4. 04
    Comstock Township (Kalamazoo County)
    Starting line McCann +9. 7.5% split their ticket.
    +570
  5. 05
    Benton Harbor
    Starting line McCann +93. 2.1% split their ticket. About 1,507 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +494
  6. 06
    Emmett Township (Calhoun County)
    Starting line Huizenga +18. 7.7% split their ticket.
    +363

The top 12 cities and townships carry 80% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    23,084 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Huizenga, plus the 7 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
    +5,899
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 33,797 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and townships where McCann's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,054
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and townships that lean McCann's way.
    +313
What has to be true
  1. McCann wins 13 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Huizenga.
  2. In Kalamazoo and Benton Harbor, 9 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan uses 26 percent of what recent Michigan results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    299 precincts, R² 0.990, 44 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -21,840 to 36,026 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 15
    McCann $1,686,240 cash on hand; Huizenga $2,268,747.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    11,620 households, 34,859 dials, about 1,827 live conversations: an estimated $5,185 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $5,185 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Michigan races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Michigan Bureau of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.