Michigan · U.S. House · District 4 · November 3, 2026

How Sean McCann wins.

A true toss-up between McCann and Huizenga: the 3 head-to-head 2026 polls between the two finalists average within one point. In a tied race, the plan aims for a 2-point cushion: 6,921 net votes, most of them in Portage, Kalamazoo and Texas Township (Kalamazoo County).

6,921

net votes between McCann and a win

days to election day. Absentee voting opened September 24.

Tied

our starting line: a toss-up in 2026 polls

In short

One-page brief ›All Michigan races ranked ›

McCann can win. The plan uses 26 percent of what history allows.

Odds today50%

Odds with the plan66%

Net votes to find6,921

WherePortage, Kalamazoo, Texas Township (Kalamazoo County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Huizenga +0.0. Sean McCann needs 6,921 net votes. Odds 50% today, 66% with the plan.

The number

173,015 votes.

That is half of the 346,029 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where McCann stands today, and what is missing:

169,616 Sean McCann baseline

169,617 Bill Huizenga baseline

Starting line: a tie (the 3 head-to-head 2026 polls between the two finalists average within one point), applied to each community's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. In a tied race the plan aims for a 2-point cushion. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

50% today. 66% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

McCann wins in

66%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

50%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves26%

The plan on this page sits at 26%. Median outcome at this setting: McCann by 7,154.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

5,899

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 23,084

Who. 23,084 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Huizenga, plus the 7 percent still undecided in the latest poll.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. McCann needs to win 13 percent of the ones now leaning Huizenga.

Mobilize

1,054

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 33,797

Who. At least 33,797 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and townships where McCann's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

313

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 3,503

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and townships that lean McCann's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 7,266 net votes against a gap of 6,921. That is a win.

Where it is won

12 cities and townships carry 80% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Portagepersuade
Starting line McCann +23. 7.7% split their ticket.
+1,822
02
Kalamazoomobilize
Starting line McCann +64. 4.8% split their ticket. About 7,843 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+723
03
Texas Township (Kalamazoo County)persuade
Starting line McCann +10. 7.6% split their ticket.
+719
04
Comstock Township (Kalamazoo County)persuade
Starting line McCann +9. 7.5% split their ticket.
+570
05
Benton Harbormobilize
Starting line McCann +93. 2.1% split their ticket. About 1,507 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+494
06
Emmett Township (Calhoun County)persuade
Starting line Huizenga +18. 7.7% split their ticket.
+363
07
Gun Plain Township (Allegan County)persuade
Starting line Huizenga +6. 7.6% split their ticket.
+227
08
Pavilion Township (Kalamazoo County)persuade
Starting line Huizenga +8. 7.9% split their ticket.
+220
09
Otsego Township (Allegan County)persuade
Starting line Huizenga +9. 8.6% split their ticket.
+212
10
Alamo Township (Kalamazoo County)persuade
Starting line Huizenga +17. 7.8% split their ticket.
+159
11
South Haven (Van Buren County)persuade
Starting line McCann +30. 8.0% split their ticket.
+156
12
Otsegopersuade
Starting line Huizenga +2. 8.3% split their ticket.
+133

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Portage carries the most.

Portage gives this plan more net votes than any other community: 1,822. It sits at McCann +23 on our starting line, and 7.7 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Kalamazoo is a turnout target.

McCann's side leads Kalamazoo by about 64 points on our starting line, and it cast about 7,843 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 570 votes there.

Otsego Township (Allegan County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the cities and townships in this plan, Otsego Township (Allegan County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 8.6 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

The money is close.

As of July 15, 2026, Huizenga had $2.27 million in cash on hand to McCann's $1.69 million. A race this close on money is decided on voter contact.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where McCann's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 299
Slope: 1.026
R²: 0.990
Residual SD: 3.3 pts
Crossover precincts: 44

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: McCann's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Ballots are already coming in.

Now to October 9
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities and townships. Every conversation tags the voter: with McCann, with Huizenga, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list, starting now: ballots are already being cast.
October 10 to 23
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 5,899 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 24 to 30
Bank the ballots
Absentee ballots have been available since September 24, with no excuse needed, and every community offers early in-person voting at least October 24 through November 1. Absentee ballots must reach the clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 31 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 33,797 of them live where McCann is favored. Absentee ballots must reach the city or township clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Voters can register in person at their clerk's office and vote the same day.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voters are asked for photo ID but can sign an affidavit instead, and same-day registration is available at the clerk's office. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 5.5 points; Rogers carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 6.1 points; Whitmer carried the 2022 governor's race by 0.8 points.

McCann wins 13 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Huizenga.
In Kalamazoo and Benton Harbor, 9 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
No national wave is required. The plan uses 26 percent of what recent Michigan results show is possible.
The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The work

1,827 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 34,859 dials to 11,620 households, before the last ballot is cast.

12K

households on the target list

35K

dials across three attempts

1,827

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $5,185 at our published rates: 11,620 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Sean McCann (D)

Michigan state senator (19th District, formerly 20th) and former state representative (elected 2010), who served ten years on the Kalamazoo City Commission from 1999; a Western Michigan University political science graduate and member of the Citizen Potawatomi Nation.

Cash on hand $1,686,240 and $2,620,011 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Favorite · incumbent

Bill Huizenga (R)

U.S. representative since 2011 (4th District since 2023), previously a Michigan state representative (2003 to 2009) and aide to Rep. Pete Hoekstra; co-owner of the family Huizenga Gravel Company in Jenison, from Holland.

Cash on hand $2,268,747 and $4,093,991 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Shafina Che Barnett (G)

FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 27, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Huizenga +0.0. Sean McCann needs 6,921 net votes. Odds 50% today, 66% with the plan.

Questions

Can Sean McCann win Michigan's 4th Congressional District in 2026?

Yes. The race starts tied, so Sean McCann wins with any net gain. The plan aims for a 2-point cushion of 6,921 net votes, and recent Michigan results show about 28,436 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan builds that full cushion.

Where are the votes Sean McCann needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Portage, Kalamazoo, Texas Township (Kalamazoo County), Comstock Township (Kalamazoo County), Benton Harbor. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Sean McCann need to persuade?

About 2,950 voters who lean Bill Huizenga today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 13 percent of the 23,084 persuadable voters leaning Bill Huizenga.

When does early voting start in Michigan in 2026?

Michigan voters can vote absentee with no excuse; ballots have been available since September 24, 2026, and must reach the city or township clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3. Every community offers early in-person voting at least October 24 through November 1, and some start as early as October 5. Online and mail registration closes October 19; after that, voters can register in person at their clerk's office through 8 p.m. on Election Day.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Michigan Bureau of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Michigan Bureau of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.