Upset Brief · MI-05 · Christian Vukasovich (D) vs. Tim Walberg (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 23.6-point national wave.

<1%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
87,818
net votes to find
36
days left, ballots already coming in
Where
  1. 01
    Bedford Township (Monroe County)
    Starting line Walberg +24. 6.4% split their ticket.
    +513
  2. 02
    Jackson
    Starting line Vukasovich +14. 6.0% split their ticket. About 3,709 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +453
  3. 03
    Summit Township (Jackson County)
    Starting line Walberg +16. 7.2% split their ticket.
    +416
  4. 04
    Frenchtown Township (Monroe County)
    Starting line Walberg +24. 7.3% split their ticket.
    +330
  5. 05
    Blackman Township (Jackson County)
    Starting line Walberg +13. 8.6% split their ticket.
    +313
  6. 06
    Monroe
    Starting line Walberg +4. 6.6% split their ticket.
    +277

The top 12 cities and townships carry 33% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    9,808 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Walberg today.
    +9,808
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 5,460 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and townships where Vukasovich's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +283
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and townships that lean Vukasovich's way.
    +778

Plus a national shift of 23.6 points of margin (76,949 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Vukasovich wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Walberg.
  2. In Jackson and Albion, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 23.6 points toward Vukasovich's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    322 precincts, R² 0.985, 42 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -115,411 to -38,776 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 15
    Vukasovich $13,290 cash on hand; Walberg $993,833.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    18,837 households, 56,511 dials, about 2,961 live conversations: an estimated $7,002 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $7,002 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Michigan races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Michigan Bureau of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.