What it would take for Christian Vukasovich.
Walberg starts 27.0 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 10,869 net votes toward Vukasovich, a 3.3-point gain. Winning outright would take a 23.6-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Vukasovich the one standing if one comes.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 23.6-point national wave.
162,742 votes.
That is half of the 325,483 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Vukasovich stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
<1% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 9,808 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Walberg today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Vukasovich needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Walberg.
Who. At least 5,460 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and townships where Vukasovich's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and townships that lean Vukasovich's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 10,869 net votes against a gap of 87,818. Still 76,949 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 23.6 points that no campaign controls.
12 cities and townships carry 33% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+513Bedford Township (Monroe County)persuadeStarting line Walberg +24. 6.4% split their ticket.
- 02+453JacksonpersuadeStarting line Vukasovich +14. 6.0% split their ticket. About 3,709 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 03+416Summit Township (Jackson County)persuadeStarting line Walberg +16. 7.2% split their ticket.
- 04+330Frenchtown Township (Monroe County)persuadeStarting line Walberg +24. 7.3% split their ticket.
- 05+313Blackman Township (Jackson County)persuadeStarting line Walberg +13. 8.6% split their ticket.
- 06+277MonroepersuadeStarting line Walberg +4. 6.6% split their ticket.
- 07+238Leoni Township (Jackson County)persuadeStarting line Walberg +25. 7.6% split their ticket.
- 08+231Monroe Township (Monroe County)persuadeStarting line Walberg +23. 7.6% split their ticket.
- 09+225Lincoln Township (Berrien County)persuadeStarting line Walberg +22. 5.5% split their ticket.
- 10+202Berlin Township (Monroe County)persuadeStarting line Walberg +34. 8.3% split their ticket.
- 11+183AlbionmobilizeStarting line Vukasovich +35. 6.1% split their ticket. About 860 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 12+161Dundee Township (Monroe County)persuadeStarting line Walberg +22. 8.2% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Bedford Township (Monroe County) carries the most.
Bedford Township (Monroe County) gives this plan more net votes than any other community: 513. It sits at Walberg +24 on our starting line, and 6.4 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Jackson is a turnout target.
Vukasovich's side leads Jackson by about 14 points on our starting line, and it cast about 3,709 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 148 votes there.
Blackman Township (Jackson County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the cities and townships in this plan, Blackman Township (Jackson County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 8.6 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of July 15, 2026, Walberg had $994K in cash on hand to Vukasovich's $13K. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Vukasovich's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 322
- Slope
- 0.982
- R²
- 0.985
- Residual SD
- 2.3 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 42
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Vukasovich's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Ballots are already coming in.
- Now to October 9Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities and townships. Every conversation tags the voter: with Vukasovich, with Walberg, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list, starting now: ballots are already being cast.
- October 10 to 23Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 9,808 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
- October 24 to 30Bank the ballots
Absentee ballots have been available since September 24, with no excuse needed, and every community offers early in-person voting at least October 24 through November 1. Absentee ballots must reach the clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 31 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 5,460 of them live where Vukasovich is favored. Absentee ballots must reach the city or township clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Voters can register in person at their clerk's office and vote the same day.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voters are asked for photo ID but can sign an affidavit instead, and same-day registration is available at the clerk's office. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 27.0 points; Rogers carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 25.8 points; Dixon carried the 2022 governor's race by 15.5 points.
- Vukasovich wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Walberg.
- In Jackson and Albion, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- It would take a national shift of about 23.6 points toward Vukasovich's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
2,961 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 56,511 dials to 18,837 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $7,002 at our published rates: 18,837 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Christian Vukasovich (D)
A Michigan-born teacher, college professor and labor organizer from Galien in Berrien County.
Cash on hand $13,290 and $55,756 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.
Tim Walberg (R)
Chairman of the House Committee on Education and Workforce, first elected to Congress in 2006 and representing Michigan's 5th District since 2023; before Congress he served in the Michigan House of Representatives (1983 to 1999) and worked as a pastor, a Moody Bible Institute division manager and president of the Warren Reuther Center for Education and Community Impact. Born in Chicago in 1951, he holds degrees from Fort Wayne Bible College (now Taylor University Fort Wayne) and Wheaton College.
Cash on hand $993,833 and $1,742,399 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.
James Bronke (G)
An engineer from Cassopolis; born in Manchester, Connecticut, he earned a bachelor's degree from California State University, Northridge in 1982.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 27, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Walberg +27.0. Christian Vukasovich needs 87,818 net votes. Odds under 1% today, under 1% with the plan.
Questions
Can Christian Vukasovich win Michigan's 5th Congressional District in 2026?
Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 10,869 net votes against a gap of 87,818; the rest would take a 23.6-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.
Where are the votes Christian Vukasovich needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Bedford Township (Monroe County), Jackson, Summit Township (Jackson County), Frenchtown Township (Monroe County), Blackman Township (Jackson County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Christian Vukasovich need to persuade?
About 4,904 voters who lean Tim Walberg today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 9,808 persuadable voters leaning Tim Walberg.
When does early voting start in Michigan in 2026?
Michigan voters can vote absentee with no excuse; ballots have been available since September 24, 2026, and must reach the city or township clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3. Every community offers early in-person voting at least October 24 through November 1, and some start as early as October 5. Online and mail registration closes October 19; after that, voters can register in person at their clerk's office through 8 p.m. on Election Day.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Michigan Bureau of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Michigan Bureau of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Michigan Bureau of Elections, election results and data
- Michigan Department of State, elections
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
Race coverage
- Wikipedia: Michigan's 5th congressional district
- Ballotpedia: Michigan's 5th Congressional District election, 2026
- Ballotpedia: Christian Vukasovich
- Ballotpedia: James Bronke