Upset Brief · MI-06 · Heather Smiley (R) vs. Debbie Dingell (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 27.2-point national wave.

0%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
108,687
net votes to find
36
days left, ballots already coming in
Where
  1. 01
    Canton Township (Wayne County)
    Starting line Dingell +23. 2.3% split their ticket.
    +700
  2. 02
    Brownstown Township (Wayne County)
    Starting line Dingell +7. 5.5% split their ticket.
    +461
  3. 03
    Novi
    Starting line Dingell +17. 2.6% split their ticket.
    +389
  4. 04
    Huron Township (Wayne County)
    Starting line Smiley +18. 4.7% split their ticket. About 2,226 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +334
  5. 05
    Ypsilanti Township (Washtenaw County)
    Starting line Dingell +52. 2.2% split their ticket.
    +314
  6. 06
    Trenton
    Starting line Dingell +1. 5.0% split their ticket.
    +270

The top 12 cities and townships carry 68% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    4,398 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Dingell today.
    +4,398
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 4,034 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and townships where Smiley's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +230
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and townships that lean Smiley's way.
    +820

Plus a national shift of 27.2 points of margin (103,239 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Smiley wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Dingell.
  2. In Huron Township (Wayne County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. It would take a national shift of about 27.2 points toward Smiley's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    261 precincts, R² 0.989, 39 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -146,680 to -59,892 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 15
    Smiley no FEC totals reported; Dingell $414,935.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    10,469 households, 31,408 dials, about 1,646 live conversations: an estimated $4,671 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $4,671 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Michigan races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Michigan Bureau of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.