What it would take for Heather Smiley.
Dingell starts 28.6 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 5,448 net votes toward Smiley, a 1.4-point gain. Winning outright would take a 27.2-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Smiley the one standing if one comes.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 27.2-point national wave.
189,723 votes.
That is half of the 379,445 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Smiley stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
0% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 4,398 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Dingell today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Smiley needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Dingell.
Who. At least 4,034 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and townships where Smiley's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and townships that lean Smiley's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 5,448 net votes against a gap of 108,687. Still 103,239 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 27.2 points that no campaign controls.
12 cities and townships carry 68% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+700Canton Township (Wayne County)persuadeStarting line Dingell +23. 2.3% split their ticket.
- 02+461Brownstown Township (Wayne County)persuadeStarting line Dingell +7. 5.5% split their ticket.
- 03+389NovipersuadeStarting line Dingell +17. 2.6% split their ticket.
- 04+334Huron Township (Wayne County)persuadeStarting line Smiley +18. 4.7% split their ticket. About 2,226 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
- 05+314Ypsilanti Township (Washtenaw County)persuadeStarting line Dingell +52. 2.2% split their ticket.
- 06+270TrentonpersuadeStarting line Dingell +1. 5.0% split their ticket.
- 07+243Van Buren Township (Wayne County)persuadeStarting line Dingell +32. 3.2% split their ticket.
- 08+223Northville Township (Wayne County)persuadeStarting line Dingell +8. 2.0% split their ticket.
- 09+208Ann ArborpersuadeStarting line Dingell +75. 0.6% split their ticket.
- 10+205Plymouth Township (Wayne County)persuadeStarting line Dingell +6. 1.9% split their ticket.
- 11+178WoodhavenpersuadeStarting line Dingell +3. 5.3% split their ticket.
- 12+172Grosse Ile Township (Wayne County)persuadeStarting line Smiley +10. 4.6% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Canton Township (Wayne County) carries the most.
Canton Township (Wayne County) gives this plan more net votes than any other community: 700. It sits at Dingell +23 on our starting line, and 2.3 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Huron Township (Wayne County) is a turnout target.
Smiley's side leads Huron Township (Wayne County) by about 18 points on our starting line, and it cast about 2,226 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 131 votes there.
Brownstown Township (Wayne County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the cities and townships in this plan, Brownstown Township (Wayne County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 5.5 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
The honest math.
Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 5,448 net votes. The gap is 108,687. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 1.4 points of margin, and a head start if the national mood breaks.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Smiley's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 261
- Slope
- 0.929
- R²
- 0.989
- Residual SD
- 3.1 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 39
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Smiley's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Ballots are already coming in.
- Now to October 9Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities and townships. Every conversation tags the voter: with Smiley, with Dingell, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list, starting now: ballots are already being cast.
- October 10 to 23Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 4,398 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
- October 24 to 30Bank the ballots
Absentee ballots have been available since September 24, with no excuse needed, and every community offers early in-person voting at least October 24 through November 1. Absentee ballots must reach the clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 31 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 4,034 of them live where Smiley is favored. Absentee ballots must reach the city or township clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Voters can register in person at their clerk's office and vote the same day.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voters are asked for photo ID but can sign an affidavit instead, and same-day registration is available at the clerk's office. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 23.3 points; Slotkin carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 24.2 points; Whitmer carried the 2022 governor's race by 34.3 points.
- Smiley wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Dingell.
- In Huron Township (Wayne County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- It would take a national shift of about 27.2 points toward Smiley's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
1,646 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 31,408 dials to 10,469 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $4,671 at our published rates: 10,469 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Heather Smiley (R)
A Riverview resident who retired from Ford Motor Company after 32 years (1990 to 2022) in union and salaried roles spanning product development, strategy and planning, customer service and analytics, including work on location in Europe; she holds a bachelor's (1985) and a master's in administration (2001) from Central Michigan University.
Debbie Dingell (D)
U.S. representative since 2015, serving on the Energy and Commerce and Natural Resources committees; before Congress she spent more than 30 years at General Motors, including as president of the GM Foundation, and served on the Wayne State University Board of Governors from 2007 to 2014. A Detroit native, she holds a foreign service degree and a master's degree from Georgetown University.
Cash on hand $414,935 and $1,193,712 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.
Clyde Shabazz (G)
A podcast host, media producer and artist from Detroit.
Tim Teagan (L)
Chair of the Libertarian Party of Michigan, from Plymouth.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 27, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Dingell +28.6. Heather Smiley needs 108,687 net votes. Odds 0% today, under 1% with the plan.
Questions
Can Heather Smiley win Michigan's 6th Congressional District in 2026?
Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 5,448 net votes against a gap of 108,687; the rest would take a 27.2-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.
Where are the votes Heather Smiley needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Canton Township (Wayne County), Brownstown Township (Wayne County), Novi, Huron Township (Wayne County), Ypsilanti Township (Washtenaw County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Heather Smiley need to persuade?
About 2,199 voters who lean Debbie Dingell today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 4,398 persuadable voters leaning Debbie Dingell.
When does early voting start in Michigan in 2026?
Michigan voters can vote absentee with no excuse; ballots have been available since September 24, 2026, and must reach the city or township clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3. Every community offers early in-person voting at least October 24 through November 1, and some start as early as October 5. Online and mail registration closes October 19; after that, voters can register in person at their clerk's office through 8 p.m. on Election Day.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Michigan Bureau of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Michigan Bureau of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Michigan Bureau of Elections, election results and data
- Michigan Department of State, elections
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
Race coverage
- Wikipedia: Michigan's 6th congressional district
- Ballotpedia: Michigan's 6th Congressional District election, 2026
- Ballotpedia: Debbie Dingell
- Ballotpedia: Heather Smiley