Upset Brief · MI-07 · William Lawrence (D) vs. Tom Barrett (R), incumbent

Lawrence can win. The plan uses 80 percent of what history allows.

50%
odds today
62%
odds with the plan
7,577
net votes to find
36
days left, ballots already coming in
Where
  1. 01
    Lansing (Ingham County)
    Starting line Lawrence +47. 1.7% split their ticket. About 11,486 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +2,307
  2. 02
    East Lansing (Ingham County)
    Starting line Lawrence +58. 1.3% split their ticket. About 4,601 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +978
  3. 03
    Meridian Township (Ingham County)
    Starting line Lawrence +42. 1.5% split their ticket. About 3,840 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +461
  4. 04
    Delta Township (Eaton County)
    Starting line Lawrence +23. 3.3% split their ticket.
    +368
  5. 05
    Delhi Township (Ingham County)
    Starting line Lawrence +20. 2.3% split their ticket.
    +240
  6. 06
    Lyon Township (Oakland County)
    Starting line Barrett +14. 3.1% split their ticket.
    +182

The top 12 cities and townships carry 67% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    4,501 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Barrett today.
    +3,584
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 30,237 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and townships where Lawrence's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +3,181
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and townships that lean Lawrence's way.
    +1,191
What has to be true
  1. Lawrence wins 40 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Barrett.
  2. In Lansing (Ingham County) and East Lansing (Ingham County), 28 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan uses 80 percent of what recent Michigan results show is possible.
  4. Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one comes from one side's sponsors, and the major ratings disagree); with Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections all at toss-up, the race is treated as a tie. An independent head-to-head poll would move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    302 precincts, R² 0.997, 46 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -35,702 to 52,074 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 15
    Lawrence $383,116 cash on hand; Barrett $2,871,872.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    20,616 households, 61,849 dials, about 3,241 live conversations: an estimated $7,150 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $7,150 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Michigan races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Michigan Bureau of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.