Michigan · U.S. House · District 7 · November 3, 2026

How William Lawrence wins.

A true toss-up between Lawrence and Barrett: Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections all call it a toss-up, and no independent public poll sets a starting line. In a tied race, the plan aims for a 2-point cushion: 7,577 net votes, most of them in Lansing (Ingham County), East Lansing (Ingham County) and Meridian Township (Ingham County).

7,577

net votes between Lawrence and a win

days to election day. Absentee voting opened September 24.

Tied

our starting line: a toss-up (the raters; no independent poll)

In short

One-page brief ›All Michigan races ranked ›

Lawrence can win. The plan uses 80 percent of what history allows.

Odds today50%

Odds with the plan62%

Net votes to find7,577

WhereLansing (Ingham County), East Lansing (Ingham County), Meridian Township (Ingham County)

Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Barrett +0.0. William Lawrence needs 7,577 net votes. Odds 50% today, 62% with the plan.

The number

189,425 votes.

That is half of the 378,848 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Lawrence stands today, and what is missing:

185,190 William Lawrence baseline

185,190 Tom Barrett baseline

Starting line: a tie (Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections all call it a toss-up, and no independent public poll sets a starting line), applied to each community's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. In a tied race the plan aims for a 2-point cushion. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

50% today. 62% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Lawrence wins in

62%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

50%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves80%

The plan on this page sits at 80%. Median outcome at this setting: Lawrence by 8,363.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

3,584

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 4,501

Who. 4,501 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Barrett today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Lawrence needs to win 40 percent of the ones now leaning Barrett.

Mobilize

3,181

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 30,237

Who. At least 30,237 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and townships where Lawrence's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

1,191

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 4,275

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and townships that lean Lawrence's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 7,956 net votes against a gap of 7,577. That is a win.

Where it is won

12 cities and townships carry 67% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Lansing (Ingham County)mobilize
Starting line Lawrence +47. 1.7% split their ticket. About 11,486 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+2,307
02
East Lansing (Ingham County)mobilize
Starting line Lawrence +58. 1.3% split their ticket. About 4,601 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+978
03
Meridian Township (Ingham County)mobilize
Starting line Lawrence +42. 1.5% split their ticket. About 3,840 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+461
04
Delta Township (Eaton County)persuade
Starting line Lawrence +23. 3.3% split their ticket.
+368
05
Delhi Township (Ingham County)persuade
Starting line Lawrence +20. 2.3% split their ticket.
+240
06
Lyon Township (Oakland County)persuade
Starting line Barrett +14. 3.1% split their ticket.
+182
07
Owossopersuade
Starting line Barrett +4. 4.4% split their ticket.
+161
08
Green Oak Township (Livingston County)persuade
Starting line Barrett +16. 1.8% split their ticket.
+145
09
DeWitt Township (Clinton County)persuade
Starting line Lawrence +8. 2.7% split their ticket.
+142
10
Lansing (Eaton County)mobilize
Starting line Lawrence +64. 3.0% split their ticket. About 453 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+128
11
South Lyonpersuade
Starting line Barrett +3. 3.2% split their ticket.
+122
12
Charlottepersuade
Starting line Barrett +7. 4.7% split their ticket.
+103

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Lansing (Ingham County) carries the most.

Lansing (Ingham County) gives this plan more net votes than any other community: 2,307. It sits at Lawrence +47 on our starting line, and 1.7 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

East Lansing (Ingham County) is a turnout target.

Lawrence's side leads East Lansing (Ingham County) by about 58 points on our starting line, and it cast about 4,601 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 911 votes there.

Charlotte splits its ticket the most.

Of the cities and townships in this plan, Charlotte has the highest share of ticket splitters: 4.7 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 15, 2026, Barrett had $2.87 million in cash on hand to Lawrence's $383K. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Lawrence's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 302
Slope: 1.021
R²: 0.997
Residual SD: 1.8 pts
Crossover precincts: 46

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Lawrence's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Ballots are already coming in.

Now to October 9
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities and townships. Every conversation tags the voter: with Lawrence, with Barrett, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list, starting now: ballots are already being cast.
October 10 to 23
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 3,584 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 24 to 30
Bank the ballots
Absentee ballots have been available since September 24, with no excuse needed, and every community offers early in-person voting at least October 24 through November 1. Absentee ballots must reach the clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 31 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 30,237 of them live where Lawrence is favored. Absentee ballots must reach the city or township clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Voters can register in person at their clerk's office and vote the same day.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voters are asked for photo ID but can sign an affidavit instead, and same-day registration is available at the clerk's office. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 1.3 points; Slotkin carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 1.1 points; Whitmer carried the 2022 governor's race by 9.9 points.

Lawrence wins 40 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Barrett.
In Lansing (Ingham County) and East Lansing (Ingham County), 28 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
No national wave is required. The plan uses 80 percent of what recent Michigan results show is possible.
Published 2026 polls do not set the starting line here (every usable one comes from one side's sponsors, and the major ratings disagree); with Cook, Sabato and Inside Elections all at toss-up, the race is treated as a tie. An independent head-to-head poll would move it.

The work

3,241 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 61,849 dials to 20,616 households, before the last ballot is cast.

21K

households on the target list

62K

dials across three attempts

3,241

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $7,150 at our published rates: 20,616 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

William Lawrence (D)

Co-founder of the Sunrise Movement climate organization (2015) and a Swarthmore College graduate in sociology and anthropology, raised in East Lansing.

Cash on hand $383,116 and $1,119,198 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Favorite · incumbent

Tom Barrett (R)

U.S. representative since 2025, previously a Michigan state senator (2019 to 2023) and state representative (2015 to 2019); a 21-year Army veteran who served in Iraq and Kuwait and a Western Michigan University graduate, from Charlotte.

Cash on hand $2,871,872 and $6,306,828 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Shane Dedrick (G)

FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 27, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Barrett +0.0. William Lawrence needs 7,577 net votes. Odds 50% today, 62% with the plan.

Questions

Can William Lawrence win Michigan's 7th Congressional District in 2026?

Yes. The race starts tied, so William Lawrence wins with any net gain. The plan aims for a 2-point cushion of 7,577 net votes, and recent Michigan results show about 9,992 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan builds that full cushion.

Where are the votes William Lawrence needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Lansing (Ingham County), East Lansing (Ingham County), Meridian Township (Ingham County), Delta Township (Eaton County), Delhi Township (Ingham County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does William Lawrence need to persuade?

About 1,792 voters who lean Tom Barrett today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 40 percent of the 4,501 persuadable voters leaning Tom Barrett.

When does early voting start in Michigan in 2026?

Michigan voters can vote absentee with no excuse; ballots have been available since September 24, 2026, and must reach the city or township clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3. Every community offers early in-person voting at least October 24 through November 1, and some start as early as October 5. Online and mail registration closes October 19; after that, voters can register in person at their clerk's office through 8 p.m. on Election Day.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Michigan Bureau of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Michigan Bureau of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.