Upset Brief · MI-08 · Thomas J. Smith (R) vs. Kristen McDonald Rivet (D), incumbent

Smith gets within 10,623 votes on campaign work alone. A 3.1-point national shift finishes it.

19%
odds today
33%
odds with the plan
21,130
net votes to find
36
days left, ballots already coming in
Where
  1. 01
    Saginaw Township (Saginaw County)
    Starting line McDonald Rivet +11. 4.1% split their ticket.
    +499
  2. 02
    Grand Blanc Township (Genesee County)
    Starting line McDonald Rivet +13. 3.6% split their ticket.
    +421
  3. 03
    Bay City
    Starting line McDonald Rivet +19. 5.2% split their ticket.
    +392
  4. 04
    Burton
    Starting line McDonald Rivet +10. 5.1% split their ticket.
    +368
  5. 05
    Midland (Midland County)
    Starting line McDonald Rivet +8. 2.4% split their ticket.
    +337
  6. 06
    Fenton Township (Genesee County)
    Starting line Smith +17. 2.8% split their ticket. About 2,349 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +306

The top 12 cities and townships carry 37% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    7,357 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean McDonald Rivet today.
    +7,357
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 21,336 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and townships where Smith's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,414
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and townships that lean Smith's way.
    +1,736

Plus a national shift of 3.1 points of margin (10,623 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Smith wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning McDonald Rivet.
  2. In Fenton Township (Genesee County) and Thomas Township (Saginaw County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 3.1 points toward Smith's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    302 precincts, R² 0.991, 57 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -50,954 to 29,369 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 15
    Smith $219,799 cash on hand; Rivet $4,254,099.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    28,297 households, 84,890 dials, about 4,448 live conversations: an estimated $9,463 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $9,463 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Michigan races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Michigan Bureau of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.