Michigan · U.S. House · District 8 · November 3, 2026

How Thomas J. Smith wins.

McDonald Rivet starts 6.2 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work gets Smith within 10,623 votes; a 3.1-point shift in the national mood finishes it. The most net votes are in Saginaw Township (Saginaw County), Grand Blanc Township (Genesee County) and Bay City.

21,130

net votes between Smith and a win

days to election day. Absentee voting opened September 24.

6.2 pts

McDonald Rivet lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Michigan races ranked ›

Smith gets within 10,623 votes on campaign work alone. A 3.1-point national shift finishes it.

Odds today19%

Odds with the plan33%

Net votes to find21,130

WhereSaginaw Township (Saginaw County), Grand Blanc Township (Genesee County), Bay City

Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Rivet +6.2. Thomas J. Smith needs 21,130 net votes. Odds 19% today, 33% with the plan.

The number

171,139 votes.

That is half of the 342,277 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Smith stands today, and what is missing:

155,280 Thomas J. Smith baseline

176,411 Kristen McDonald Rivet baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

19% today. 33% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Smith wins in

33%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

19%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Smith short by 10,440.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

7,357

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 7,357

Who. 7,357 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean McDonald Rivet today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Smith needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning McDonald Rivet.

Mobilize

1,414

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 21,336

Who. At least 21,336 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and townships where Smith's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

1,736

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 4,960

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the cities and townships that lean Smith's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 10,507 net votes against a gap of 21,130. Still 10,623 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 3.1 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 cities and townships carry 37% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Saginaw Township (Saginaw County)persuade
Starting line McDonald Rivet +11. 4.1% split their ticket.
+499
02
Grand Blanc Township (Genesee County)persuade
Starting line McDonald Rivet +13. 3.6% split their ticket.
+421
03
Bay Citypersuade
Starting line McDonald Rivet +19. 5.2% split their ticket.
+392
04
Burtonpersuade
Starting line McDonald Rivet +10. 5.1% split their ticket.
+368
05
Midland (Midland County)persuade
Starting line McDonald Rivet +8. 2.4% split their ticket.
+337
06
Fenton Township (Genesee County)persuade
Starting line Smith +17. 2.8% split their ticket. About 2,349 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+306
07
Thomas Township (Saginaw County)persuade
Starting line Smith +18. 5.8% split their ticket. About 1,408 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
+301
08
Genesee Township (Genesee County)persuade
Starting line McDonald Rivet +9. 5.9% split their ticket.
+285
09
Bangor Township (Bay County)persuade
Starting line Smith +4. 6.6% split their ticket.
+274
10
Davison Township (Genesee County)persuade
Starting line Smith +3. 4.5% split their ticket.
+271
11
Flint Township (Genesee County)persuade
Starting line McDonald Rivet +36. 3.4% split their ticket.
+247
12
Flintpersuade
Starting line McDonald Rivet +68. 1.6% split their ticket.
+231

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Saginaw Township (Saginaw County) carries the most.

Saginaw Township (Saginaw County) gives this plan more net votes than any other community: 499. It sits at McDonald Rivet +11 on our starting line, and 4.1 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Fenton Township (Genesee County) is a turnout target.

Smith's side leads Fenton Township (Genesee County) by about 17 points on our starting line, and it cast about 2,349 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 118 votes there.

Bangor Township (Bay County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the cities and townships in this plan, Bangor Township (Bay County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 6.6 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of July 15, 2026, McDonald Rivet had $4.25 million in cash on hand to Smith's $220K. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Smith's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 302
Slope: 0.944
R²: 0.991
Residual SD: 2.9 pts
Crossover precincts: 57

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Smith's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Ballots are already coming in.

Now to October 9
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities and townships. Every conversation tags the voter: with Smith, with McDonald Rivet, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list, starting now: ballots are already being cast.
October 10 to 23
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 7,357 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 24 to 30
Bank the ballots
Absentee ballots have been available since September 24, with no excuse needed, and every community offers early in-person voting at least October 24 through November 1. Absentee ballots must reach the clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 31 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 21,336 of them live where Smith is favored. Absentee ballots must reach the city or township clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Voters can register in person at their clerk's office and vote the same day.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voters are asked for photo ID but can sign an affidavit instead, and same-day registration is available at the clerk's office. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 2.0 points; Slotkin carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 1.4 points; Whitmer carried the 2022 governor's race by 11.5 points.

Smith wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning McDonald Rivet.
In Fenton Township (Genesee County) and Thomas Township (Saginaw County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 3.1 points toward Smith's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The work

4,448 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 84,890 dials to 28,297 households, before the last ballot is cast.

28K

households on the target list

85K

dials across three attempts

4,448

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $9,463 at our published rates: 28,297 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Thomas J. Smith (R)

Retired General Motors engineer and small-business owner of a salsa company, from Flint.

Cash on hand $219,799 and $243,238 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Kristen McDonald Rivet (D)

U.S. representative since 2025 and former Michigan state senator (35th District), assistant majority floor leader 2023 to 2025; former executive director of Michigan Head Start and Skillman Foundation vice president, with degrees from Michigan State University and the University of Michigan-Flint, from Bay City.

Cash on hand $4,254,099 and $5,644,876 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

C. Mia Pettus (L)

FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Jim Casha (G)

FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Kathy Goodwin (WC)

FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 27, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Rivet +6.2. Thomas J. Smith needs 21,130 net votes. Odds 19% today, 33% with the plan.

Questions

Can Thomas J. Smith win Michigan's 8th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 10,507 net votes; the gap is 21,130. The rest would take a 3.1-point national shift.

Where are the votes Thomas J. Smith needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Saginaw Township (Saginaw County), Grand Blanc Township (Genesee County), Bay City, Burton, Midland (Midland County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Thomas J. Smith need to persuade?

About 3,678 voters who lean Kristen McDonald Rivet today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 7,357 persuadable voters leaning Kristen McDonald Rivet.

When does early voting start in Michigan in 2026?

Michigan voters can vote absentee with no excuse; ballots have been available since September 24, 2026, and must reach the city or township clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3. Every community offers early in-person voting at least October 24 through November 1, and some start as early as October 5. Online and mail registration closes October 19; after that, voters can register in person at their clerk's office through 8 p.m. on Election Day.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Michigan Bureau of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Michigan Bureau of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.