Upset Brief · MI-09 · Ray Pooley (D) vs. Lisa McClain (R), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 26.7-point national wave.

0%
odds today
<1%
odds with the plan
118,333
net votes to find
36
days left, ballots already coming in
Where
  1. 01
    Macomb Township (Macomb County)
    Starting line McClain +26. 7.6% split their ticket.
    +1,382
  2. 02
    Chesterfield Township (Macomb County)
    Starting line McClain +23. 8.0% split their ticket.
    +988
  3. 03
    Orion Township (Oakland County)
    Starting line McClain +12. 7.4% split their ticket.
    +822
  4. 04
    Independence Township (Oakland County)
    Starting line McClain +19. 7.1% split their ticket.
    +788
  5. 05
    Washington Township (Macomb County)
    Starting line McClain +38. 6.4% split their ticket.
    +527
  6. 06
    Port Huron
    Starting line even. 7.9% split their ticket.
    +459

The top 12 cities and townships carry 48% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    13,493 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean McClain today.
    +13,493
  • M
    Mobilize
    Few cities and townships give Pooley's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
    +0
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.
    +1,240

Plus a national shift of 26.7 points of margin (103,600 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Pooley wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning McClain.
  2. It would take a national shift of about 26.7 points toward Pooley's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
  3. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    325 precincts, R² 0.982, 63 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -148,455 to -58,064 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 15
    Pooley $4,942 cash on hand; McClain $1,536,890.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    21,065 households, 63,195 dials, about 3,311 live conversations: an estimated $7,305 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $7,305 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Michigan races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Michigan Bureau of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.