What it would take for Ray Pooley.
McClain starts 30.5 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 14,733 net votes toward Pooley, a 3.8-point gain. Winning outright would take a 26.7-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Pooley the one standing if one comes.
A long shot on the math: it takes a 26.7-point national wave.
193,852 votes.
That is half of the 387,702 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Pooley stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House in 2024 and 2022, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
0% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 13,493 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean McClain today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Pooley needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning McClain.
Who. Few cities and townships give Pooley's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 14,733 net votes against a gap of 118,333. Still 103,600 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 26.7 points that no campaign controls.
12 cities and townships carry 48% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+1,382Macomb Township (Macomb County)persuadeStarting line McClain +26. 7.6% split their ticket.
- 02+988Chesterfield Township (Macomb County)persuadeStarting line McClain +23. 8.0% split their ticket.
- 03+822Orion Township (Oakland County)persuadeStarting line McClain +12. 7.4% split their ticket.
- 04+788Independence Township (Oakland County)persuadeStarting line McClain +19. 7.1% split their ticket.
- 05+527Washington Township (Macomb County)persuadeStarting line McClain +38. 6.4% split their ticket.
- 06+459Port HuronpersuadeStarting line even. 7.9% split their ticket.
- 07+455Oxford Township (Oakland County)persuadeStarting line McClain +21. 7.2% split their ticket.
- 08+372Highland Township (Oakland County)persuadeStarting line McClain +27. 6.2% split their ticket.
- 09+370Oakland Township (Oakland County)persuadeStarting line McClain +21. 6.2% split their ticket.
- 10+311Springfield Township (Oakland County)persuadeStarting line McClain +27. 7.0% split their ticket.
- 11+299Brandon Township (Oakland County)persuadeStarting line McClain +30. 6.7% split their ticket.
- 12+262New BaltimorepersuadeStarting line McClain +29. 7.8% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Macomb Township (Macomb County) carries the most.
Macomb Township (Macomb County) gives this plan more net votes than any other community: 1,382. It sits at McClain +26 on our starting line, and 7.6 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Chesterfield Township (Macomb County) splits its ticket the most.
Of the cities and townships in this plan, Chesterfield Township (Macomb County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 8.0 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of July 15, 2026, McClain had $1.54 million in cash on hand to Pooley's $4,942. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.
The honest math.
Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 14,733 net votes. The gap is 118,333. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 3.8 points of margin, and a head start if the national mood breaks.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Pooley's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 325
- Slope
- 0.984
- R²
- 0.982
- Residual SD
- 2.0 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 63
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Pooley's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Ballots are already coming in.
- Now to October 9Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities and townships. Every conversation tags the voter: with Pooley, with McClain, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list, starting now: ballots are already being cast.
- October 10 to 23Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 13,493 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
- October 24 to 30Bank the ballots
Absentee ballots have been available since September 24, with no excuse needed, and every community offers early in-person voting at least October 24 through November 1. Absentee ballots must reach the clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 31 to November 2Turn them out
The last push goes to every identified supporter who has not voted yet; few drop-off voters live where Pooley is favored, so this is a chase, not a turnout drive. Absentee ballots must reach the city or township clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Voters can register in person at their clerk's office and vote the same day.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voters are asked for photo ID but can sign an affidavit instead, and same-day registration is available at the clerk's office. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 32.3 points; Rogers carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 28.5 points; Dixon carried the 2022 governor's race by 16.8 points.
- Pooley wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning McClain.
- It would take a national shift of about 26.7 points toward Pooley's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
- No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
3,311 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 63,195 dials to 21,065 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $7,305 at our published rates: 21,065 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Ray Pooley (D)
A third-generation manufacturer who works as a CNC machinist and programmer, a Hartland High School graduate from Highland who raises chickens.
Cash on hand $4,942 and $8,084 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.
Lisa McClain (R)
U.S. representative since 2021 and chair of the House Republican Conference since January 2025; before Congress she was a business executive and founded the North End Support Team. A Romeo resident, she holds a business administration degree from Northwood University.
Cash on hand $1,536,890 and $5,242,309 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.
Kevin Vayko (L)
An environmental engineer from Dryden who graduated from Almont High School and earned a bachelor's degree in environmental engineering from Michigan Technological University in 2011.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 27, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: McClain +30.5. Ray Pooley needs 118,333 net votes. Odds 0% today, under 1% with the plan.
Questions
Can Ray Pooley win Michigan's 9th Congressional District in 2026?
Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 14,733 net votes against a gap of 118,333; the rest would take a 26.7-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.
Where are the votes Ray Pooley needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Macomb Township (Macomb County), Chesterfield Township (Macomb County), Orion Township (Oakland County), Independence Township (Oakland County), Washington Township (Macomb County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Ray Pooley need to persuade?
About 6,746 voters who lean Lisa McClain today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 13,493 persuadable voters leaning Lisa McClain.
When does early voting start in Michigan in 2026?
Michigan voters can vote absentee with no excuse; ballots have been available since September 24, 2026, and must reach the city or township clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3. Every community offers early in-person voting at least October 24 through November 1, and some start as early as October 5. Online and mail registration closes October 19; after that, voters can register in person at their clerk's office through 8 p.m. on Election Day.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Michigan Bureau of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Michigan Bureau of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Michigan Bureau of Elections, election results and data
- Michigan Department of State, elections
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
Race coverage
- Wikipedia: Michigan's 9th congressional district
- Ballotpedia: Michigan's 9th Congressional District election, 2026
- Ballotpedia: Lisa McClain