Upset Brief · Michigan U.S. Senate · Mike Rogers (R) vs. Abdul El-Sayed (D)

Rogers can win. The plan uses 35 percent of what history allows.

30%
odds today
51%
odds with the plan
116,706
net votes to find
36
days left, ballots already coming in
Where
  1. 01
    Macomb County
    Starting line Rogers +6. 27,421 persuadable voters leaning El-Sayed; 124,516 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +21,816
  2. 02
    Wayne County
    Starting line El-Sayed +33. 42,716 persuadable voters leaning El-Sayed; 213,253 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +20,107
  3. 03
    Oakland County
    Starting line El-Sayed +15. 41,634 persuadable voters leaning El-Sayed; 142,610 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +10,438
  4. 04
    Livingston County
    Starting line Rogers +20. 7,723 persuadable voters leaning El-Sayed; 23,616 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +6,751
  5. 05
    St. Clair County
    Starting line Rogers +27. 5,371 persuadable voters leaning El-Sayed; 21,891 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +5,050
  6. 06
    Kent County
    Starting line El-Sayed +6. 19,528 persuadable voters leaning El-Sayed; 72,948 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +4,265

The top 12 counties carry 70% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    297,441 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning El-Sayed, plus the 11 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
    +102,720
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 439,770 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and townships where Rogers's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +14,284
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Rogers's way.
    +5,537
What has to be true
  1. Rogers wins 17 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning El-Sayed.
  2. In the cities and townships Rogers's side carries in St. Clair County and Allegan County, 12 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan uses 35 percent of what recent Michigan results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    4,417 precincts, R² 0.994, 612 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -363,932 to 380,911 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through July 15
    Rogers $4,473,237 cash on hand; El-Sayed $2,552,763.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    217,578 households, 652,733 dials, about 34,203 live conversations: an estimated $59,812 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $59,812 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Michigan races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Michigan Bureau of Elections precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 27, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.