Michigan · U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026

How Mike Rogers wins.

El-Sayed starts 2.6 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Rogers needs 116,706 net votes, and the plan uses 35 percent of what history allows. The most net votes are in Macomb County, Wayne County and Oakland County.

116,706

net votes between Rogers and a win

days to election day. Absentee voting opened September 24.

2.6 pts

El-Sayed lead, our starting line from 2026 polls

In short

One-page brief ›All Michigan races ranked ›

Rogers can win. The plan uses 35 percent of what history allows.

Odds today30%

Odds with the plan51%

Net votes to find116,706

WhereMacomb County, Wayne County, Oakland County

Underdog UpdateSeptember 27, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: El-Sayed +2.7. Mike Rogers needs 119,484 net votes. Odds 30% today, 51% with the plan.

The number

2,248,980 votes.

That is half of the 4,497,958 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Rogers stands today, and what is missing:

2,143,335 Mike Rogers baseline

2,260,040 Abdul El-Sayed baseline

Starting line: El-Sayed +2.6 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each county's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

30% today. 51% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Rogers wins in

51%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

30%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves35%

The plan on this page sits at 35%. Median outcome at this setting: Rogers by 6,248.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

103K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 297,441

Who. 297,441 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning El-Sayed, plus the 11 percent still undecided in the latest poll.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Rogers needs to win 17 percent of the ones now leaning El-Sayed.

Mobilize

14K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 439,770

Who. At least 439,770 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in cities and townships where Rogers's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

5,537

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 45,808

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Rogers's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 122,541 net votes against a gap of 116,706. That is a win.

Where it is won

12 counties carry 70% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Macomb Countypersuade
Starting line Rogers +6. 27,421 persuadable voters leaning El-Sayed; 124,516 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+21,816
02
Wayne Countypersuade
Starting line El-Sayed +33. 42,716 persuadable voters leaning El-Sayed; 213,253 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+20,107
03
Oakland Countypersuade
Starting line El-Sayed +15. 41,634 persuadable voters leaning El-Sayed; 142,610 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+10,438
04
Livingston Countypersuade
Starting line Rogers +20. 7,723 persuadable voters leaning El-Sayed; 23,616 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+6,751
05
St. Clair Countypersuade
Starting line Rogers +27. 5,371 persuadable voters leaning El-Sayed; 21,891 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+5,050
06
Kent Countypersuade
Starting line El-Sayed +6. 19,528 persuadable voters leaning El-Sayed; 72,948 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+4,265
07
Muskegon Countypersuade
Starting line El-Sayed +2. 5,272 persuadable voters leaning El-Sayed; 21,383 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+4,210
08
Monroe Countypersuade
Starting line Rogers +22. 4,829 persuadable voters leaning El-Sayed; 22,232 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+2,745
09
Bay Countypersuade
Starting line Rogers +7. 3,516 persuadable voters leaning El-Sayed; 12,151 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+2,648
10
Allegan Countypersuade
Starting line Rogers +24. 3,871 persuadable voters leaning El-Sayed; 14,788 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+2,628
11
Lapeer Countypersuade
Starting line Rogers +34. 3,023 persuadable voters leaning El-Sayed; 11,499 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+2,626
12
Saginaw Countypersuade
Starting line even. 5,533 persuadable voters leaning El-Sayed; 22,337 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+2,387

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Macomb County holds the biggest share of the plan.

Macomb County gives this plan more net votes than any other county: 21,816. It sits at Rogers +6 on our starting line.

St. Clair County is a turnout target.

In the cities and townships Rogers's side carries in St. Clair County, bringing back people who voted in 2024 and skipped the 2022 midterm nets 1,093 votes in this plan.

Rogers has the cash edge.

As of July 15, 2026, the close of the latest FEC reporting period, Rogers had $4.47 million in cash on hand to El-Sayed's $2.55 million. The underdog can fund the contact this plan takes.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Rogers's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 4,417
Slope: 0.984
R²: 0.994
Residual SD: 2.9 pts
Crossover precincts: 612

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Rogers's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 36 days

Ballots are already coming in.

Now to October 9
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these counties. Every conversation tags the voter: with Rogers, with El-Sayed, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list, starting now: ballots are already being cast.
October 10 to 23
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 102,720 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
October 24 to 30
Bank the ballots
Absentee ballots have been available since September 24, with no excuse needed, and every community offers early in-person voting at least October 24 through November 1. Absentee ballots must reach the clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
October 31 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 439,770 of them live where Rogers is favored. Absentee ballots must reach the city or township clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Voters can register in person at their clerk's office and vote the same day.
November 3
Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Voters are asked for photo ID but can sign an affidavit instead, and same-day registration is available at the clerk's office. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results statewide: Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 1.4 points; Slotkin carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 0.3 points; Whitmer carried the 2022 governor's race by 10.5 points.

Rogers wins 17 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning El-Sayed.
In the cities and townships Rogers's side carries in St. Clair County and Allegan County, 12 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
No national wave is required. The plan uses 35 percent of what recent Michigan results show is possible.
The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The work

34,203 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 652,733 dials to 217,578 households, before the last ballot is cast.

218K

households on the target list

653K

dials across three attempts

34K

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $59,812 at our published rates: 217,578 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Mike Rogers (R)

Livonia native who represented Michigan's 8th District in the U.S. House (2001 to 2015), chairing the House Intelligence Committee (2011 to 2015), after serving in the Michigan Senate (1995 to 2001), where he wrote the law creating the Michigan Education Savings Program. An Adrian College graduate, he served as a U.S. Army officer (1985 to 1989) and an FBI special agent in Chicago (1989 to 1994).

Cash on hand $4,473,237 and $10,898,177 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Favorite

Abdul El-Sayed (D)

Physician and epidemiologist born in Rochester Hills who served as Detroit health officer and executive director of the Detroit Health Department (appointed 2015) and as director of Wayne County's Department of Health, Human and Veterans Services (2023 to 2025). A University of Michigan graduate and Rhodes Scholar, he earned a DPhil at Oxford and an MD from Columbia University, where he was an assistant professor of epidemiology.

Cash on hand $2,552,763 and $14,514,336 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through July 15, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Lydia Christensen (L)

Ironwood-based computer scientist and founder of Iron Fortress LLC, a Michigan technology company focused on Bitcoin mining and AI infrastructure; she is a member of the Kiowa-Sioux Nation and is running on an 'Unchain Michigan' civil-liberties platform.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Douglas P. Marsh (G)

West Branch journalist with publishing-industry experience who holds a BA in philosophy from the University of Michigan; he was the Green Party's 2024 U.S. Senate nominee.

FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Tim Long (UST)

FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Walter P. Kristy (NL)

Fenton resident who serves as vice chair of the Natural Law Party of Michigan.

FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 27, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: El-Sayed +2.7. Mike Rogers needs 119,484 net votes. Odds 30% today, 51% with the plan.

Questions

Can Mike Rogers win the U.S. Senate race in Michigan in 2026?

Yes, on the math. Mike Rogers needs 116,706 net votes, and recent Michigan results show about 354,832 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 35 percent of that.

Where are the votes Mike Rogers needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Macomb County, Wayne County, Oakland County, Livingston County, St. Clair County. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Mike Rogers need to persuade?

About 51,360 voters who lean Abdul El-Sayed today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 17 percent of the 297,441 persuadable voters leaning Abdul El-Sayed.

When does early voting start in Michigan in 2026?

Michigan voters can vote absentee with no excuse; ballots have been available since September 24, 2026, and must reach the city or township clerk by 8 p.m. on November 3. Every community offers early in-person voting at least October 24 through November 1, and some start as early as October 5. Online and mail registration closes October 19; after that, voters can register in person at their clerk's office through 8 p.m. on Election Day.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Michigan Bureau of Elections precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Michigan Bureau of Elections returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 27, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.