Upset Brief · MN-01 · Jake Johnson (DFL) vs. Brad Finstad (R), incumbent

Johnson can win. The math closes using 54 percent of what history allows.

19%
odds today
52%
odds with the plan
12,871
net votes to find
38
days left, ballots already coming in
Where
  1. 01
    Rochester
    Starting line Johnson +28. 4.3% split their ticket. 16,883 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +1,618
  2. 02
    Owatonna
    Starting line Finstad +8. 7.8% split their ticket.
    +828
  3. 03
    Albert Lea
    Starting line Johnson +1. 9.7% split their ticket.
    +599
  4. 04
    Faribault
    Starting line Finstad +3. 7.7% split their ticket.
    +576
  5. 05
    New Ulm
    Starting line Finstad +14. 8.7% split their ticket.
    +489
  6. 06
    Fairmont
    Starting line Finstad +23. 8.1% split their ticket.
    +294

The top 12 cities and townships carry 42% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    Voters who split their ticket and the 7 percent still undecided. 21,000 lean Finstad today, concentrated in Steele, Freeborn, Rice and Brown counties.
    +11,334
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 36,954 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022 in places Johnson carries, 16,883 of them in Rochester alone.
    +1,623
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who backed Legal Marijuana Now or Grassroots in 2022 (3.8 percent districtwide) in towns that lean his way.
    +559
What has to be true
  1. Johnson wins 27 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Finstad.
  2. In Rochester and St. Peter, 19 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The September poll showing Johnson up 1 was paid for by a Democratic super PAC. This plan assumes the average of every 2026 poll instead: Finstad by 4.
  4. No wave is required. The plan closes at 54 percent of what history allows.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    741 precincts, R² 0.977, 132 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -24,585 to 26,266 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC report through July 22
    Johnson $1,011,593 cash on hand; Finstad $1,283,923.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    28,626 households, 85,877 dials, about 4,500 live conversations: an estimated $9,573 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $9,573 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Minnesota races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Minnesota Secretary of State precinct returns (2022, 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.