Where a dollar moves a Minnesota race.

Where

1. Lakeville +2,352
   Starting line Little +2. 5.2% split their ticket.
2. Eagan +2,200
   Starting line Little +31. 4.7% split their ticket.
3. Burnsville +1,761
   Starting line Little +23. 5.4% split their ticket.
4. Apple Valley +1,716
   Starting line Little +25. 4.9% split their ticket.
5. Cottage Grove +1,313
   Starting line Little +12. 6.0% split their ticket.

The top 12 cities and townships carry 64% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +22,753
  Ticket splitters and the 8 percent still undecided: 22,753 leaning Little. Lakeville, Eagan, Burnsville and Apple Valley hold the most.
• Mobilize +1,285
  At least 14,275 voters who skipped the 2022 midterm in the towns Pratt carries.
• Consolidate +1,418
  Voters who backed Legal Marijuana Now in 2022, when it took 3.3 percent of the district vote.

Plus a 1.7-point national shift (5,646 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Pratt wins half of the splitters and undecided voters now leaning Little. That is the ceiling, and he needs all of it.
2. Voters who went third party in 2022 break his way this time.
3. The national environment moves about 1.7 points his way between now and November 3.
4. Both published polls are campaign internals. If the true gap is closer to Pratt's own poll (Little +5), the math closes with no wave at all.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  255 precincts, slope 0.892, R² 0.970, 45 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -34,892 to 24,501
• Cash on hand, July 22
  Pratt $254,373 · Little $127,543
• Call program
  44,045 households, 132,134 dials, about 6,924 live conversations and 2,361 voter IDs, at $0.2971 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Rochester +1,618
   Starting line Johnson +28. 4.3% split their ticket. 16,883 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
2. Owatonna +828
   Starting line Finstad +8. 7.8% split their ticket.
3. Albert Lea +599
   Starting line Johnson +1. 9.7% split their ticket.
4. Faribault +576
   Starting line Finstad +3. 7.7% split their ticket.
5. New Ulm +489
   Starting line Finstad +14. 8.7% split their ticket.

The top 12 cities and townships carry 42% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +11,334
  Voters who split their ticket and the 7 percent still undecided. 21,000 lean Finstad today, concentrated in Steele, Freeborn, Rice and Brown counties.
• Mobilize +1,623
  At least 36,954 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022 in places Johnson carries, 16,883 of them in Rochester alone.
• Consolidate +559
  Voters who backed Legal Marijuana Now or Grassroots in 2022 (3.8 percent districtwide) in towns that lean his way.

What has to be true

1. Johnson wins 27 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Finstad.
2. In Rochester and St. Peter, 19 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The September poll showing Johnson up 1 was paid for by a Democratic super PAC. This plan assumes the average of every 2026 poll instead: Finstad by 4.
4. No wave is required. The plan closes at 54 percent of what history allows.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  741 precincts, slope 0.984, R² 0.977, 132 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -24,585 to 26,266
• Cash on hand, July 22
  Johnson $1,011,593 · Finstad $1,283,923
• Call program
  28,626 households, 85,877 dials, about 4,500 live conversations and 1,535 voter IDs, at $0.3344 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Blaine +2,330
   Starting line Chapin +11. 6.2% split their ticket.
2. St. Cloud +1,901
   Starting line Chapin +12. 7.0% split their ticket. 7,467 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
3. Chanhassen +1,265
   Starting line Chapin +16. 6.3% split their ticket. 3,241 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
4. Andover +1,238
   Starting line Emmer +9. 5.8% split their ticket.
5. Chaska +1,067
   Starting line Chapin +14. 4.6% split their ticket. 4,196 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.

The top 12 cities and townships carry 49% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +25,052
  Ticket splitters and the 9 percent undecided: 25,052 leaning Emmer, most in Blaine, St. Cloud, Andover and Chanhassen.
• Mobilize +773
  At least 16,575 voters who skipped 2022 in St. Cloud, Chaska and Chanhassen, the places Chapin carries.
• Consolidate +612
  Third-party voters in the Carver and Stearns towns that lean his way.

Plus a 2.8-point national shift (9,129 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Chapin wins half of the splitters and undecided voters now leaning Emmer.
2. In St. Cloud, Chaska and Chanhassen, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 2.8 points toward the challenger's side.
4. The resources gap closes enough to fund the contact: Emmer had $4.5 million in cash in July to Chapin's $70,000.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  269 precincts, slope 0.918, R² 0.968, 34 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -38,121 to 20,566
• Cash on hand, July 22
  Chapin $70,293 · Emmer $4,496,007
• Call program
  47,214 households, 141,643 dials, about 7,422 live conversations and 2,531 voter IDs, at $0.2846 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Stearns County +4,297
   Starting line Tafoya +27. 6,719 persuadable voters leaning Flanagan; 21,527 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
2. St. Louis County +3,598
   Starting line Flanagan +13. 8,638 persuadable voters leaning Flanagan; 26,230 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
3. Wright County +2,536
   Starting line Tafoya +32. 6,191 persuadable voters leaning Flanagan; 23,888 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
4. Douglas County +2,339
   Starting line Tafoya +35. 2,205 persuadable voters leaning Flanagan; 5,423 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
5. Morrison County +2,061
   Starting line Tafoya +56. 1,595 persuadable voters leaning Flanagan; 4,901 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.

The top 12 counties carry 36% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +62,901
  Ticket splitters and the 7 to 12 percent still undecided in September polls. 227,017 of them lean Flanagan today. Densest in Todd, Douglas, Freeborn, McLeod and Lyon counties.
• Mobilize +8,911
  At least 293,244 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in towns where Tafoya wins at least 55 percent.
• Consolidate +2,449
  Voters who backed a third party in 2024 or 2022 in towns that lean her way.

What has to be true

1. Tafoya wins 14 percent of the splitters and undecided voters now leaning Flanagan. Not a landslide among them: a steady edge, town by town.
2. In her strongest towns, 10 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The third-party vote holds near its polling level of 2 to 4 percent, and her share of it grows.
4. No national wave is required. This plan closes the gap at 28 percent of what recent Minnesota results show is possible.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  4,061 precincts, slope 0.895, R² 0.985, 1,036 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -204,872 to 214,577
• Cash on hand, July 22
  Tafoya $1,372,728 · Flanagan $1,058,604
• Call program
  122,599 households, 367,798 dials, about 19,273 live conversations and 6,572 voter IDs, at $0.2749 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Duluth +2,650
   Starting line Swanson +39. 4.6% split their ticket. 12,372 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
2. Lower Red Lake +355
   Starting line Swanson +86. 2.7% split their ticket. 1,129 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
3. Forest Lake +309
   Starting line Stauber +20. 6.3% split their ticket.
4. Hibbing +287
   Starting line Stauber +4. 8.4% split their ticket.
5. Hugo +263
   Starting line Stauber +12. 6.1% split their ticket.

The top 12 cities and townships carry 36% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +11,008
  11,008 ticket splitters leaning Stauber, most in Hibbing, Forest Lake, Hugo, Brainerd and Hermantown.
• Mobilize +2,202
  At least 16,466 voters who skipped the 2022 midterm in places Swanson carries, 12,372 of them in Duluth.
• Consolidate +635
  Third-party voters in the Duluth and Range towns that lean her way.

Plus a 9.7-point national shift (32,331 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Swanson wins half of the ticket splitters leaning Stauber, the ceiling.
2. In Duluth and Lower Red Lake, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 9.7 points toward her side, roughly the size of a wave year.
4. The cash gap narrows: Stauber had $1.2 million on hand in July to Swanson's $90,000.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  820 precincts, slope 0.961, R² 0.986, 166 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -71,709 to 6,920
• Cash on hand, July 22
  Swanson $90,423 · Stauber $1,200,836
• Call program
  27,804 households, 83,412 dials, about 4,371 live conversations and 1,491 voter IDs, at $0.3344 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Plymouth +1,102
   Starting line Morrison +25. 5.3% split their ticket.
2. Maple Grove +1,016
   Starting line Morrison +12. 5.4% split their ticket.
3. Bloomington +901
   Starting line Morrison +29. 4.0% split their ticket.
4. Eden Prairie +873
   Starting line Morrison +24. 5.4% split their ticket.
5. Coon Rapids +807
   Starting line Morrison +6. 5.9% split their ticket.

The top 12 cities and townships carry 83% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +8,606
  8,606 voters who split their ticket in 2024 or 2022 and lean Morrison today.
• Mobilize +310
  At least 5,058 voters who skipped the 2022 midterm in the few places Bass carries.
• Consolidate +524
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the towns that lean his way.

Plus a 16.5-point national shift (55,641 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Bass wins half of the ticket splitters leaning Morrison, the ceiling.
2. Coon Rapids, Champlin and Anoka sit within single digits on the starting line. They are the northern edge of the district and the natural first calls.
3. A national wave of about 16.5 points arrives on top of a flawless campaign.
4. Anything short of that is still a result worth building: every point gained here is a list of identified voters for the next race.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  229 precincts, slope 0.963, R² 0.948, 55 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -94,975 to -16,569
• Cash on hand, July 22
  Bass n/a · Morrison $413,942
• Call program
  16,399 households, 49,198 dials, about 2,578 live conversations and 879 voter IDs, at $0.3965 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. St. Paul +2,134
   Starting line McCollum +59. 3.7% split their ticket.
2. Woodbury +806
   Starting line McCollum +20. 4.8% split their ticket.
3. Maplewood +494
   Starting line McCollum +26. 5.8% split their ticket.
4. Oakdale +393
   Starting line McCollum +17. 6.3% split their ticket.
5. Roseville +345
   Starting line McCollum +44. 3.6% split their ticket.

The top 12 cities and townships carry 81% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +6,721
  6,721 voters who split their ticket in 2024 or 2022 and lean McCollum today.
• Mobilize +5
  At least 92 voters who skipped the 2022 midterm in the few places Wikstrom carries.
• Consolidate +401
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the towns that lean his way.

Plus a 33.3-point national shift (99,829 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Wikstrom wins half of the ticket splitters leaning McCollum, the ceiling.
2. Woodbury, Oakdale and Lake Elmo in Washington County are the closest ground in the district.
3. A national wave of about 33.3 points arrives on top of a flawless campaign.
4. Anything short of that is still a result worth building: every point gained here is a list of identified voters for the next race.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  211 precincts, slope 0.969, R² 0.983, 42 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -134,972 to -65,002
• Cash on hand, July 22
  Wikstrom $2,205 · McCollum $498,697
• Call program
  10,127 households, 30,382 dials, about 1,592 live conversations and 543 voter IDs, at $0.4462 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Minneapolis +5,155
   Starting line Omar +69. 5.6% split their ticket.
2. St. Louis Park +1,288
   Starting line Omar +43. 10.0% split their ticket.
3. Golden Valley +764
   Starting line Omar +41. 11.4% split their ticket.
4. Richfield +742
   Starting line Omar +39. 9.5% split their ticket.
5. Edina +597
   Starting line Omar +22. 18.6% split their ticket.

The top 12 cities and townships carry 98% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +11,026
  11,026 voters who split their ticket in 2024 or 2022 and lean Omar today.
• Mobilize +0
  There are almost no places Nagel's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.
• Consolidate +423
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the towns that lean his way.

Plus a 51.5-point national shift (152,742 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Nagel wins half of the ticket splitters leaning Omar, the ceiling.
2. Fridley, Edina's slice of the district and Crystal are the closest ground.
3. A national wave of about 51.5 points arrives on top of a flawless campaign.
4. Anything short of that is still a result worth building: every point gained here is a list of identified voters for the next race.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  217 precincts, slope 1.077, R² 0.864, 38 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -188,003 to -117,853
• Cash on hand, July 22
  Nagel $46,922 · Omar $1,347,365
• Call program
  16,050 households, 48,151 dials, about 2,523 live conversations and 860 voter IDs, at $0.3965 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Where

1. Moorhead +494
   Starting line Osberg +12. 5.8% split their ticket.
2. Alexandria +305
   Starting line Fischbach +29. 9.7% split their ticket.
3. Willmar +281
   Starting line Fischbach +15. 8.0% split their ticket.
4. Hutchinson +277
   Starting line Fischbach +26. 8.4% split their ticket.
5. Marshall +237
   Starting line Fischbach +22. 9.7% split their ticket.

The top 12 cities and townships carry 17% of the plan.

How

• Persuade +14,606
  14,606 voters who split their ticket in 2024 or 2022 and lean Fischbach today.
• Mobilize +4
  At least 59 voters who skipped the 2022 midterm in the few places Osberg carries.
• Consolidate +840
  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the towns that lean his way.

Plus a 33.7-point national shift (104,325 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

1. Osberg wins half of the ticket splitters leaning Fischbach, the ceiling.
2. Moorhead, where Clay County sits near even, is the natural anchor.
3. A national wave of about 33.7 points arrives on top of a flawless campaign.
4. Anything short of that is still a result worth building: every point gained here is a list of identified voters for the next race.

The numbers behind it

• Crossover regression
  1,313 precincts, slope 0.923, R² 0.958, 234 crossover precincts
• Monte Carlo
  20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -140,346 to -67,582
• Cash on hand, July 22
  Osberg $114,432 · Fischbach $919,823
• Call program
  21,852 households, 65,556 dials, about 3,435 live conversations and 1,171 voter IDs, at $0.3468 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)