Minnesota · 9 federal races · 38 days left
Every Minnesota race. From the other side.
The polls tell you who is ahead. These pages tell the candidate who is behind exactly how many votes they need, where those votes live, and what it takes to reach them before the last ballot is cast.
See every race rankedOdds today → with the plan, and the call program each plan takes.
9
underdog plans, built from precinct returns
70,726
net votes: the closest upset in Minnesota (Minnesota U.S. Senate)
38
days until November 3. Absentee voting is open now.
Pick a race
9 plans. One question each.
Minnesota U.S. Senate · open seat
How Michele Tafoya wins
70,726 net votes to find, most of them in Stearns County and St. Louis County.
See the path ›
MN-01 · vs. incumbent
How Jake Johnson wins
12,871 net votes to find, most of them in Rochester and Owatonna.
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MN-02 · open seat
How Eric Pratt wins
31,102 net votes to find, most of them in Lakeville and Eagan.
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MN-03 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Tyler Bass
65,082 net votes to find, most of them in Plymouth and Maple Grove.
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MN-04 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Paul Wikstrom
106,955 net votes to find, most of them in St. Paul and Woodbury.
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MN-05 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for John Nagel
164,191 net votes to find, most of them in Minneapolis and St. Louis Park.
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MN-06 · vs. incumbent
How Doug Chapin wins
35,566 net votes to find, most of them in Blaine and St. Cloud.
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MN-07 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Erik Osberg
119,774 net votes to find, most of them in Moorhead and Alexandria.
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MN-08 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Trina Swanson
46,177 net votes to find, most of them in Duluth and Lower Red Lake.
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Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Minnesota Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and public polls. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Also see the Minnesota 2026 election guide.