Minnesota · 9 federal races · election held November 3

Every Minnesota race. From the other side.

The election is over. 8 of 9 races are called so far, and no underdog won. Each plan below stays up as the record, with the result beside it.

The polls tell you who is ahead. These pages tell the candidate who is behind exactly how many votes they need, where those votes live, and what it takes to reach them before the last ballot is cast.

See every race rankedOdds today → with the plan, and the call program each plan takes.

underdog plans, built from precinct returns

70,726

net votes: the closest upset in Minnesota (Minnesota U.S. Senate)

underdog wins out of 8 races called so far

Pick a race

9 plans. One question each.

Minnesota U.S. Senate · open seat

How Michele Tafoya wins

70,726 net votes to find, most of them in Stearns County and St. Louis County.

Result: Peggy Flanagan won.

See the path and the result ›

MN-01 · vs. incumbent

How Jake Johnson wins

12,871 net votes to find, most of them in Rochester and Owatonna.

Result: Jake Johnson leads, still counting.

See the path and the result ›

MN-02 · open seat

How Eric Pratt wins

31,102 net votes to find, most of them in Lakeville and Eagan.

Result: Matt Little won.

See the path and the result ›

MN-03 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Tyler Bass

65,082 net votes to find, most of them in Plymouth and Maple Grove.

Result: Kelly Morrison won.

See the path and the result ›

MN-04 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Paul Wikstrom

106,955 net votes to find, most of them in St. Paul and Woodbury.

Result: Betty McCollum won.

See the path and the result ›

MN-05 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for John Nagel

164,191 net votes to find, most of them in Minneapolis and St. Louis Park.

Result: Ilhan Omar won.

See the path and the result ›

MN-06 · vs. incumbent

How Doug Chapin wins

35,566 net votes to find, most of them in Blaine and St. Cloud.

Result: Tom Emmer won.

See the path and the result ›

MN-07 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Erik Osberg

119,774 net votes to find, most of them in Moorhead and Alexandria.

Result: Michelle Fischbach won.

See the path and the result ›

MN-08 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Trina Swanson

46,177 net votes to find, most of them in Duluth and Lower Red Lake.

Result: Pete Stauber won.

See the path and the result ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Minnesota Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and public polls. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Also see the Minnesota 2026 election guide.