Minnesota · U.S. House · District 1 · November 3, 2026

How Jake Johnson wins.

Finstad starts about 4 points ahead once every 2026 poll is averaged. Johnson needs 12,871 net votes: turnout in Rochester, plus the persuadable voters of Owatonna, Albert Lea and Faribault, the three I-35 towns that decide southern Minnesota.

12,871

net votes between Johnson and a win

days to election day. Absentee voting opened September 18.

4.3 pts

Finstad lead, our starting line from 2026 polls

In short

One-page brief ›All Minnesota races ranked ›

Johnson can win. The math closes using 54 percent of what history allows.

Odds today19%

Odds with the plan52%

Net votes to find12,871

WhereRochester, Owatonna, Albert Lea

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Finstad +4.3. Jake Johnson needs 12,871 net votes. Odds 19% today, 52% with the plan.

The number

149,669 votes.

That is half of the 299,337 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Johnson stands today, and what is missing:

140,196 Jake Johnson baseline

153,068 Brad Finstad baseline

Starting line: Finstad +4.3 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each city's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

19% today. 52% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Johnson wins in

52%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

19%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves54%

The plan on this page sits at 54%. Median outcome at this setting: Johnson by 723.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

11K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 21,000

Who. Voters who split their ticket and the 7 percent still undecided. 21,000 lean Finstad today, concentrated in Steele, Freeborn, Rice and Brown counties.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines in 2024 or 2022, plus the undecided. Johnson needs to win 27 percent of the ones now leaning Finstad.

Mobilize

1,623

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 36,954

Who. At least 36,954 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022 in places Johnson carries, 16,883 of them in Rochester alone.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

559

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 2,958

Who. Voters who backed Legal Marijuana Now or Grassroots in 2022 (3.8 percent districtwide) in towns that lean his way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 13,516 net votes against a gap of 12,871. That is a win.

Where it is won

12 cities and townships carry 42% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Rochestermobilize
Starting line Johnson +28. 4.3% split their ticket. 16,883 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+1,618
02
Owatonnapersuade
Starting line Finstad +8. 7.8% split their ticket.
+828
03
Albert Leapersuade
Starting line Johnson +1. 9.7% split their ticket.
+599
04
Faribaultpersuade
Starting line Finstad +3. 7.7% split their ticket.
+576
05
New Ulmpersuade
Starting line Finstad +14. 8.7% split their ticket.
+489
06
Fairmontpersuade
Starting line Finstad +23. 8.1% split their ticket.
+294
07
Wasecapersuade
Starting line Finstad +11. 7.5% split their ticket.
+267
08
Worthingtonpersuade
Starting line Finstad +5. 7.7% split their ticket.
+211
09
Stewartvillepersuade
Starting line Finstad +16. 8.4% split their ticket.
+204
10
Byronpersuade
Starting line Finstad +2. 7.5% split their ticket.
+196
11
St. Petermobilize
Starting line Johnson +31. 6.4% split their ticket. 1,530 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+181
12
Lake Citypersuade
Starting line Finstad +1. 7.3% split their ticket.
+164

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Rochester is a turnout race, not a persuasion race.

Johnson's side carries Rochester by about 28 points on our starting line. But Rochester cast 16,883 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022: at least that many of its 2024 voters sat out the midterm. The plan brings back enough of them to net 1,458 votes in Rochester alone.

Three I-35 towns are within reach.

Owatonna, Albert Lea and Faribault sit within 8 points of even on the starting line, and 8 to 10 percent of their voters split their tickets. Together they carry more of this plan than any single county except Olmsted.

The money is even.

Through July, both candidates had raised about $2.0 million. Finstad held $1.28 million in cash to Johnson's $1.01 million. A race that is even on money is decided on contact.

The ballots are already moving.

About 54,000 absentee ballots had been requested in the district by September 24 (our estimate from Secretary of State county counts), the third most of Minnesota's eight districts. Every one requested by a Johnson supporter needs a chase call until it is returned.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Johnson's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 741
Slope: 0.984
R²: 0.977
Residual SD: 4.0 pts
Crossover precincts: 132

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Johnson's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 38 days

Ballots are already coming in.

Now to October 4
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities. Every conversation tags the voter: with Johnson, with Finstad, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 5 to 15
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 11,334 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 16 to 27
Bank the ballots
From October 16 early voters feed ballots straight into the counter. About 54,000 absentee ballots had already been requested in this district (our estimate from county counts) by September 24. Chase every supporter's request until it is returned.
October 28 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 36,954 of them live where Johnson is favored. Mail ballots must arrive by November 3; a postmark does not count.
November 3
Election day
Minnesota registers voters at the polls with proof of residence. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Finstad won this seat by 11.5 points in the 2022 midterm and by 17.1 in 2024. Midterm margins here run smaller, and the only September poll has Johnson up 1.

Johnson wins 27 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Finstad.
In Rochester and St. Peter, 19 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The September poll showing Johnson up 1 was paid for by a Democratic super PAC. This plan assumes the average of every 2026 poll instead: Finstad by 4.
No wave is required. The plan closes at 54 percent of what history allows.

The work

4,500 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 85,877 dials to 28,626 households, before the last ballot is cast.

29K

households on the target list

86K

dials across three attempts

4,500

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. Households at 0.69 per voter, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $9,573 at our published rates: 28,626 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Jake Johnson (DFL)

Math teacher at Mayo High School in Rochester and union leader who grew up in Stewartville and graduated from UW La Crosse; on the DCCC Red to Blue list.

Cash on hand $1,011,593, raised $2,000,547, FEC candidate totals through July 22, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Brad Finstad (R)

Fourth-generation farmer from New Ulm, former state representative and former USDA Rural Development state director for Minnesota, serving in Congress since 2022.

Cash on hand $1,283,923, raised $2,030,569, FEC candidate totals through July 22, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Finstad +4.3. Jake Johnson needs 12,871 net votes. Odds 19% today, 52% with the plan.

Questions

Can Jake Johnson win Minnesota's 1st Congressional District in 2026?

Yes, on the math. Jake Johnson needs 12,871 net votes, and recent Minnesota results show about 25,041 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 54 percent of that.

Where are the votes Jake Johnson needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Rochester, Owatonna, Albert Lea, Faribault, New Ulm. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2024 and 2022 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Jake Johnson need to persuade?

About 5,667 voters who lean Brad Finstad today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 27 percent of the 21,000 persuadable voters leaning Brad Finstad.

When does early voting start in Minnesota in 2026?

Absentee voting in person and by mail began September 18, 2026. From October 16, early voters put their ballots directly into the tabulator. Absentee ballots must be received by November 3; Minnesota also registers voters on election day.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Minnesota Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Minnesota Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.