Pratt gets within 5,646 votes on campaign work alone. A 1.7-point national shift finishes it.

1. 01
   Lakeville

   Starting line Little +2. 5.2% split their ticket.
   +2,352
2. 02
   Eagan

   Starting line Little +31. 4.7% split their ticket.
   +2,200
3. 03
   Burnsville

   Starting line Little +23. 5.4% split their ticket.
   +1,761
4. 04
   Apple Valley

   Starting line Little +25. 4.9% split their ticket.
   +1,716
5. 05
   Cottage Grove

   Starting line Little +12. 6.0% split their ticket.
   +1,313
6. 06
   Shakopee

   Starting line Little +10. 6.3% split their ticket.
   +1,262

The top 12 cities and townships carry 64% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  Ticket splitters and the 8 percent still undecided: 22,753 leaning Little. Lakeville, Eagan, Burnsville and Apple Valley hold the most.
  +22,753
• M
  Mobilize

  At least 14,275 voters who skipped the 2022 midterm in the towns Pratt carries.
  +1,285
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who backed Legal Marijuana Now in 2022, when it took 3.3 percent of the district vote.
  +1,418

Plus a national shift of 1.7 points of margin (5,646 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Pratt wins half of the splitters and undecided voters now leaning Little. That is the ceiling, and he needs all of it.
2. Voters who went third party in 2022 break his way this time.
3. The national environment moves about 1.7 points his way between now and November 3.
4. Both published polls are campaign internals. If the true gap is closer to Pratt's own poll (Little +5), the math closes with no wave at all.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  255 precincts, R² 0.970, 45 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -34,892 to 24,501 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC report through July 22

  Pratt $254,373 cash on hand; Little $127,543.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  44,045 households, 132,134 dials, about 6,924 live conversations: an estimated $13,086 at published rates.