Minnesota · U.S. House · District 2 · November 3, 2026

How Eric Pratt wins.

Little leads by about 9 points across the two campaign polls. With every lever at its historical ceiling, Pratt closes all but 5,646 votes of the gap. The last 1.7 points have to come from the national mood. If they do, this seat is decided in Lakeville, Eagan and Scott County.

31,102

net votes between Pratt and a win

days to election day. Absentee voting opened September 18.

9.5 pts

Little lead, our starting line from 2026 polls

In short

One-page brief ›All Minnesota races ranked ›

Pratt gets within 5,646 votes on campaign work alone. A 1.7-point national shift finishes it.

Odds today3%

Odds with the plan38%

Net votes to find31,102

WhereLakeville, Eagan, Burnsville

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Little +9.5. Eric Pratt needs 31,102 net votes. Odds 3% today, 38% with the plan.

The number

163,693 votes.

That is half of the 327,385 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Pratt stands today, and what is missing:

143,670 Eric Pratt baseline

174,772 Matt Little baseline

Starting line: Little +9.5 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each city's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

3% today. 38% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Pratt wins in

38%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Pratt short by 5,834.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

23K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 22,753

Who. Ticket splitters and the 8 percent still undecided: 22,753 leaning Little. Lakeville, Eagan, Burnsville and Apple Valley hold the most.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines in 2024 or 2022, plus the undecided. Pratt needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Little.

Mobilize

1,285

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 14,275

Who. At least 14,275 voters who skipped the 2022 midterm in the towns Pratt carries.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

1,418

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 4,052

Who. Voters who backed Legal Marijuana Now in 2022, when it took 3.3 percent of the district vote.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 25,456 net votes against a gap of 31,102. Still 5,646 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 1.7 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 cities and townships carry 64% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Lakevillepersuade
Starting line Little +2. 5.2% split their ticket.
+2,352
02
Eaganpersuade
Starting line Little +31. 4.7% split their ticket.
+2,200
03
Burnsvillepersuade
Starting line Little +23. 5.4% split their ticket.
+1,761
04
Apple Valleypersuade
Starting line Little +25. 4.9% split their ticket.
+1,716
05
Cottage Grovepersuade
Starting line Little +12. 6.0% split their ticket.
+1,313
06
Shakopeepersuade
Starting line Little +10. 6.3% split their ticket.
+1,262
07
Inver Grove Heightspersuade
Starting line Little +17. 5.8% split their ticket.
+1,183
08
Savagepersuade
Starting line Little +11. 5.0% split their ticket.
+1,027
09
Prior Lakepersuade
Starting line Pratt +2. 5.5% split their ticket.
+997
10
Rosemountpersuade
Starting line Little +11. 5.8% split their ticket.
+934
11
Hastingspersuade
Starting line even. 7.1% split their ticket.
+848
12
Farmingtonpersuade
Starting line Pratt +5. 6.7% split their ticket.
+748

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Lakeville is close.

The district's biggest persuasion city sits within 2 points of even on the starting line, and 11,155 more ballots cast there in 2024 than in 2022. It carries more net votes in this plan than any other city in the district.

Scott County is home ground.

Pratt grew up in Prior Lake and has served in the state Senate since 2013. Scott County already leans his way on the starting line, and it is where voters are most likely to know his name before the call.

The 2022 margin was 5 points.

In the last midterm, Craig won this seat by 5.3 points while Legal Marijuana Now took 3.3 percent. A midterm electorate in this district is far closer than the 2024 result suggests.

He had the cash edge at the last report.

Little spent heavily to win a contested primary. As of July 22, the close of the most recent FEC reporting period, he had $128,000 in cash to Pratt's $254,000.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Pratt's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 255
Slope: 0.892
R²: 0.970
Residual SD: 3.6 pts
Crossover precincts: 45

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Pratt's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 38 days

Ballots are already coming in.

Now to October 4
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities. Every conversation tags the voter: with Pratt, with Little, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 5 to 15
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 22,753 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 16 to 27
Bank the ballots
From October 16 early voters feed ballots straight into the counter. About 36,000 absentee ballots had already been requested in this district (our estimate from county counts) by September 24. Chase every supporter's request until it is returned.
October 28 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 14,275 of them live where Pratt is favored. Mail ballots must arrive by November 3; a postmark does not count.
November 3
Election day
Minnesota registers voters at the polls with proof of residence. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Open seat. Craig won it by 5.3 points in 2022 and 13.4 in 2024. Our starting line averages the only two polls, one from each campaign.

Pratt wins half of the splitters and undecided voters now leaning Little. That is the ceiling, and he needs all of it.
Voters who went third party in 2022 break his way this time.
The national environment moves about 1.7 points his way between now and November 3.
Both published polls are campaign internals. If the true gap is closer to Pratt's own poll (Little +5), the math closes with no wave at all.

The work

6,924 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 132,134 dials to 44,045 households, before the last ballot is cast.

44K

households on the target list

132K

dials across three attempts

6,924

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. Households at 0.69 per voter, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $13,086 at our published rates: 44,045 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Eric Pratt (R)

State senator since 2013 (District 55, then District 54 since 2023) who grew up in Prior Lake; former University of Colorado linebacker with a St. Thomas MBA and a career in banking and finance.

Cash on hand $254,373, raised $511,213, FEC candidate totals through July 22, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Favorite

Matt Little (DFL)

Lakeville native, attorney, and former state senator for District 58 (2017 to 2021) with a political science degree from the University of Minnesota Morris; DFL-endorsed and primary winner.

Cash on hand $127,543, raised $923,277, FEC candidate totals through July 22, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Little +9.5. Eric Pratt needs 31,102 net votes. Odds 3% today, 38% with the plan.

Questions

Can Eric Pratt win Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 25,456 net votes; the gap is 31,102. The rest would take a 1.7-point national shift.

Where are the votes Eric Pratt needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Lakeville, Eagan, Burnsville, Apple Valley, Cottage Grove. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2024 and 2022 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Eric Pratt need to persuade?

About 11,376 voters who lean Matt Little today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 22,753 persuadable voters leaning Matt Little.

When does early voting start in Minnesota in 2026?

Absentee voting in person and by mail began September 18, 2026. From October 16, early voters put their ballots directly into the tabulator. Absentee ballots must be received by November 3; Minnesota also registers voters on election day.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Minnesota Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Minnesota Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.