A long shot on the math: it takes a 16.5-point national wave.

1. 01
   Plymouth

   Starting line Morrison +25. 5.3% split their ticket.
   +1,102
2. 02
   Maple Grove

   Starting line Morrison +12. 5.4% split their ticket.
   +1,016
3. 03
   Bloomington

   Starting line Morrison +29. 4.0% split their ticket.
   +901
4. 04
   Eden Prairie

   Starting line Morrison +24. 5.4% split their ticket.
   +873
5. 05
   Coon Rapids

   Starting line Morrison +6. 5.9% split their ticket.
   +807
6. 06
   Minnetonka

   Starting line Morrison +34. 4.9% split their ticket.
   +766

The top 12 cities and townships carry 83% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  8,606 voters who split their ticket in 2024 or 2022 and lean Morrison today.
  +8,606
• M
  Mobilize

  At least 5,058 voters who skipped the 2022 midterm in the few places Bass carries.
  +310
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the towns that lean his way.
  +524

Plus a national shift of 16.5 points of margin (55,641 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Bass wins half of the ticket splitters leaning Morrison, the ceiling.
2. Coon Rapids, Champlin and Anoka sit within single digits on the starting line. They are the northern edge of the district and the natural first calls.
3. A national wave of about 16.5 points arrives on top of a flawless campaign.
4. Anything short of that is still a result worth building: every point gained here is a list of identified voters for the next race.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  229 precincts, R² 0.948, 55 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -94,975 to -16,569 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC report through July 22

  Bass no FEC totals reported; Morrison $413,942.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  16,399 households, 49,198 dials, about 2,578 live conversations: an estimated $6,502 at published rates.