Minnesota · U.S. House · District 3 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Tyler Bass.

Q: Can Tyler Bass win Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 9,440 net votes; the gap is 65,082. The rest would take a 16.5-point national shift.

Q: Where are the votes Tyler Bass needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Plymouth, Maple Grove, Bloomington, Eden Prairie, Coon Rapids. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2024 and 2022 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

Q: How many voters does Tyler Bass need to persuade?

About 4,303 voters who lean Kelly Morrison today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 8,606 persuadable voters leaning Kelly Morrison.

Q: When does early voting start in Minnesota in 2026?

Absentee voting in person and by mail began September 18, 2026. From October 16, early voters put their ballots directly into the tabulator. Absentee ballots must be received by November 3; Minnesota also registers voters on election day.

Q: Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Minnesota Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

On recent results Morrison starts 19 points ahead. Campaign work can move about 9,440 net votes toward Bass, a 2.8-point gain. Winning outright would take a 16.5-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Bass the one standing when a wave comes.

65,082

net votes between Bass and a win

days to election day. Absentee voting opened September 18.

19.3 pts

Morrison lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Minnesota races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 16.5-point national wave.

Odds today<1%

Odds with the plan1%

Net votes to find65,082

WherePlymouth, Maple Grove, Bloomington

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Morrison +19.3. Tyler Bass needs 65,082 net votes. Odds under 1% today, 1% with the plan.

The number

168,432 votes.

That is half of the 336,863 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Bass stands today, and what is missing:

134,029 Tyler Bass baseline

199,111 Kelly Morrison baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the 2024 and 2022 official results in this district (House, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

<1% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Bass wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

<1%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Bass short by 55,780.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

8,606

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 8,606

Who. 8,606 voters who split their ticket in 2024 or 2022 and lean Morrison today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines in 2024 or 2022, plus the undecided. Bass needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Morrison.

Mobilize

310

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 5,058

Who. At least 5,058 voters who skipped the 2022 midterm in the few places Bass carries.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

524

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,496

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the towns that lean his way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 9,440 net votes against a gap of 65,082. Still 55,642 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 16.5 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 cities and townships carry 83% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Plymouthpersuade
Starting line Morrison +25. 5.3% split their ticket.
+1,102
02
Maple Grovepersuade
Starting line Morrison +12. 5.4% split their ticket.
+1,016
03
Bloomingtonpersuade
Starting line Morrison +29. 4.0% split their ticket.
+901
04
Eden Prairiepersuade
Starting line Morrison +24. 5.4% split their ticket.
+873
05
Coon Rapidspersuade
Starting line Morrison +6. 5.9% split their ticket.
+807
06
Minnetonkapersuade
Starting line Morrison +34. 4.9% split their ticket.
+766
07
Edinapersuade
Starting line Morrison +33. 5.4% split their ticket.
+649
08
Brooklyn Parkpersuade
Starting line Morrison +34. 4.1% split their ticket.
+598
09
Rogerspersuade
Starting line Bass +16. 5.6% split their ticket. 2,884 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+354
10
Champlinpersuade
Starting line Morrison +8. 5.5% split their ticket.
+338
11
Anokapersuade
Starting line Morrison +4. 5.9% split their ticket.
+221
12
Corcoranpersuade
Starting line Bass +18. 5.7% split their ticket. 1,329 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+193

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

The northern edge is close.

Coon Rapids, Champlin, Anoka and Rogers are within single digits or lean his way. The seat's lean comes from Edina, Minnetonka and Bloomington. The opening, if there is one, starts in the north.

Maple Grove and Plymouth hold the persuadable voters.

Plymouth and Maple Grove together carry 2,118 net votes in the plan, the most of any two cities, because both are big and both split their tickets.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 9,440 net votes. The gap is 65,082. That is not a reason to stop. It is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 2.8 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

Money.

Bass had not reported FEC receipts through July. A call program on the northern-edge cities is the most efficient first spend.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Bass's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 229
Slope: 0.963
R²: 0.948
Residual SD: 3.8 pts
Crossover precincts: 55

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Bass's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 38 days

Ballots are already coming in.

Now to October 4
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities. Every conversation tags the voter: with Bass, with Morrison, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 5 to 15
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 8,606 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 16 to 27
Bank the ballots
From October 16 early voters feed ballots straight into the counter. About 40,000 absentee ballots had already been requested in this district (our estimate from county counts) by September 24. Chase every supporter's request until it is returned.
October 28 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 5,058 of them live where Bass is favored. Mail ballots must arrive by November 3; a postmark does not count.
November 3
Election day
Minnesota registers voters at the polls with proof of residence. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Morrison won by 16.9 points in 2024; Phillips won the seat by 19.2 in 2022. No 2026 polls have been published.

Bass wins half of the ticket splitters leaning Morrison, the ceiling.
Coon Rapids, Champlin and Anoka sit within single digits on the starting line. They are the northern edge of the district and the natural first calls.
A national wave of about 16.5 points arrives on top of a flawless campaign.
Anything short of that is still a result worth building: every point gained here is a list of identified voters for the next race.

The work

2,578 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 49,198 dials to 16,399 households, before the last ballot is cast.

16K

households on the target list

49K

dials across three attempts

2,578

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. Households at 0.69 per voter, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,502 at our published rates: 16,399 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Tyler Bass (R)

Small business owner who founded an in-home personal training company, later sold life insurance, and now runs a general contracting business.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Kelly Morrison (DFL)

Minneapolis-born physician and Blake School graduate who served in the Minnesota House (2019 to 2023) and Senate (2023 to 2024) before winning this seat in 2024.

Cash on hand $413,942, raised $1,361,933, FEC candidate totals through July 22, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Morrison +19.3. Tyler Bass needs 65,082 net votes. Odds under 1% today, 1% with the plan.

Questions

Can Tyler Bass win Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 9,440 net votes; the gap is 65,082. The rest would take a 16.5-point national shift.

Where are the votes Tyler Bass needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Plymouth, Maple Grove, Bloomington, Eden Prairie, Coon Rapids. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2024 and 2022 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Tyler Bass need to persuade?

About 4,303 voters who lean Kelly Morrison today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 8,606 persuadable voters leaning Kelly Morrison.

When does early voting start in Minnesota in 2026?

Absentee voting in person and by mail began September 18, 2026. From October 16, early voters put their ballots directly into the tabulator. Absentee ballots must be received by November 3; Minnesota also registers voters on election day.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Minnesota Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Minnesota Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.