A long shot on the math: it takes a 33.3-point national wave.

1. 01
   St. Paul

   Starting line McCollum +59. 3.7% split their ticket.
   +2,134
2. 02
   Woodbury

   Starting line McCollum +20. 4.8% split their ticket.
   +806
3. 03
   Maplewood

   Starting line McCollum +26. 5.8% split their ticket.
   +494
4. 04
   Oakdale

   Starting line McCollum +17. 6.3% split their ticket.
   +393
5. 05
   Roseville

   Starting line McCollum +44. 3.6% split their ticket.
   +345
6. 06
   Shoreview

   Starting line McCollum +27. 4.5% split their ticket.
   +345

The top 12 cities and townships carry 81% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  6,721 voters who split their ticket in 2024 or 2022 and lean McCollum today.
  +6,721
• M
  Mobilize

  At least 92 voters who skipped the 2022 midterm in the few places Wikstrom carries.
  +5
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the towns that lean his way.
  +401

Plus a national shift of 33.3 points of margin (99,829 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Wikstrom wins half of the ticket splitters leaning McCollum, the ceiling.
2. Woodbury, Oakdale and Lake Elmo in Washington County are the closest ground in the district.
3. A national wave of about 33.3 points arrives on top of a flawless campaign.
4. Anything short of that is still a result worth building: every point gained here is a list of identified voters for the next race.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  211 precincts, R² 0.983, 42 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -134,972 to -65,002 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC report through July 22

  Wikstrom $2,205 cash on hand; McCollum $498,697.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  10,127 households, 30,382 dials, about 1,592 live conversations: an estimated $4,519 at published rates.