Minnesota · U.S. House · District 4 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Paul Wikstrom.

On recent results McCollum starts 36 points ahead. Campaign work can move about 7,127 net votes toward Wikstrom, a 2.4-point gain. Winning outright would take a 33.3-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Wikstrom the one standing when a wave comes.

106,955

net votes between Wikstrom and a win

days to election day. Absentee voting opened September 18.

35.7 pts

McCollum lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Minnesota races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 33.3-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find106,955

WhereSt. Paul, Woodbury, Maplewood

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: McCollum +35.7. Paul Wikstrom needs 106,955 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

149,974 votes.

That is half of the 299,946 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Wikstrom stands today, and what is missing:

94,610 Paul Wikstrom baseline

201,565 Betty McCollum baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the 2024 and 2022 official results in this district (House, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Wikstrom wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Wikstrom short by 99,969.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

6,721

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 6,721

Who. 6,721 voters who split their ticket in 2024 or 2022 and lean McCollum today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines in 2024 or 2022, plus the undecided. Wikstrom needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning McCollum.

Mobilize

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 92

Who. At least 92 voters who skipped the 2022 midterm in the few places Wikstrom carries.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

401

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,144

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the towns that lean his way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 7,127 net votes against a gap of 106,955. Still 99,828 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 33.3 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 cities and townships carry 81% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
St. Paulpersuade
Starting line McCollum +59. 3.7% split their ticket.
+2,134
02
Woodburypersuade
Starting line McCollum +20. 4.8% split their ticket.
+806
03
Maplewoodpersuade
Starting line McCollum +26. 5.8% split their ticket.
+494
04
Oakdalepersuade
Starting line McCollum +17. 6.3% split their ticket.
+393
05
Rosevillepersuade
Starting line McCollum +44. 3.6% split their ticket.
+345
06
Shoreviewpersuade
Starting line McCollum +27. 4.5% split their ticket.
+345
07
White Bear Lakepersuade
Starting line McCollum +17. 5.0% split their ticket.
+309
08
Stillwaterpersuade
Starting line McCollum +20. 4.2% split their ticket.
+238
09
New Brightonpersuade
Starting line McCollum +34. 3.9% split their ticket.
+221
10
Lake Elmopersuade
Starting line McCollum +4. 5.3% split their ticket.
+191
11
Vadnais Heightspersuade
Starting line McCollum +16. 4.7% split their ticket.
+167
12
White Bear Townshippersuade
Starting line McCollum +12. 4.6% split their ticket.
+161

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Washington County is the opening.

Woodbury, Oakdale, Lake Elmo and Stillwater lean the incumbent by far less than St. Paul. That is where persuasion calls convert.

St. Paul is about margin, not winning.

St. Paul casts more than a third of the district's votes. Moving it a few points is worth more than winning a suburb.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 7,127 net votes. The gap is 106,955. That is not a reason to stop. It is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 2.4 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

Money.

Wikstrom had about $2,000 in cash in July. At that budget, volunteer calls and earned media carry most of this plan.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Wikstrom's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 211
Slope: 0.969
R²: 0.983
Residual SD: 3.0 pts
Crossover precincts: 42

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Wikstrom's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 38 days

Ballots are already coming in.

Now to October 4
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities. Every conversation tags the voter: with Wikstrom, with McCollum, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 5 to 15
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 6,721 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 16 to 27
Bank the ballots
From October 16 early voters feed ballots straight into the counter. About 35,000 absentee ballots had already been requested in this district (our estimate from county counts) by September 24. Chase every supporter's request until it is returned.
October 28 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 92 of them live where Wikstrom is favored. Mail ballots must arrive by November 3; a postmark does not count.
November 3
Election day
Minnesota registers voters at the polls with proof of residence. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

McCollum has held the seat since 2001 and won by 34.6 points in 2024. No 2026 polls have been published.

Wikstrom wins half of the ticket splitters leaning McCollum, the ceiling.
Woodbury, Oakdale and Lake Elmo in Washington County are the closest ground in the district.
A national wave of about 33.3 points arrives on top of a flawless campaign.
Anything short of that is still a result worth building: every point gained here is a list of identified voters for the next race.

The work

1,592 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 30,382 dials to 10,127 households, before the last ballot is cast.

10K

households on the target list

30K

dials across three attempts

1,592

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. Households at 0.69 per voter, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $4,519 at our published rates: 10,127 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Paul Wikstrom (R)

Engineer and software engineering manager who was the GOP nominee for Minnesota House District 40B in 2024.

Cash on hand $2,205, raised $28,031, FEC candidate totals through July 22, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Betty McCollum (DFL)

Former teacher and North St. Paul city council member who served in the Minnesota House before winning this seat in 2000; senior appropriator serving the St. Paul area.

Cash on hand $498,697, raised $1,251,583, FEC candidate totals through July 22, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: McCollum +35.7. Paul Wikstrom needs 106,955 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can Paul Wikstrom win Minnesota's 4th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 7,127 net votes; the gap is 106,955. The rest would take a 33.3-point national shift.

Where are the votes Paul Wikstrom needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: St. Paul, Woodbury, Maplewood, Oakdale, Roseville. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2024 and 2022 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Paul Wikstrom need to persuade?

About 3,360 voters who lean Betty McCollum today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 6,721 persuadable voters leaning Betty McCollum.

When does early voting start in Minnesota in 2026?

Absentee voting in person and by mail began September 18, 2026. From October 16, early voters put their ballots directly into the tabulator. Absentee ballots must be received by November 3; Minnesota also registers voters on election day.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Minnesota Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Minnesota Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.