A long shot on the math: it takes a 51.5-point national wave.

1. 01
   Minneapolis

   Starting line Omar +69. 5.6% split their ticket.
   +5,155
2. 02
   St. Louis Park

   Starting line Omar +43. 10.0% split their ticket.
   +1,288
3. 03
   Golden Valley

   Starting line Omar +41. 11.4% split their ticket.
   +764
4. 04
   Richfield

   Starting line Omar +39. 9.5% split their ticket.
   +742
5. 05
   Edina

   Starting line Omar +22. 18.6% split their ticket.
   +597
6. 06
   Fridley

   Starting line Omar +20. 10.2% split their ticket.
   +555

The top 12 cities and townships carry 98% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  11,026 voters who split their ticket in 2024 or 2022 and lean Omar today.
  +11,026
• M
  Mobilize

  There are almost no places Nagel's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.
  +0
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the towns that lean his way.
  +423

Plus a national shift of 51.5 points of margin (152,742 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Nagel wins half of the ticket splitters leaning Omar, the ceiling.
2. Fridley, Edina's slice of the district and Crystal are the closest ground.
3. A national wave of about 51.5 points arrives on top of a flawless campaign.
4. Anything short of that is still a result worth building: every point gained here is a list of identified voters for the next race.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  217 precincts, R² 0.864, 38 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -188,003 to -117,853 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC report through July 22

  Nagel $46,922 cash on hand; Omar $1,347,365.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  16,050 households, 48,151 dials, about 2,523 live conversations: an estimated $6,364 at published rates.