Minnesota · U.S. House · District 5 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for John Nagel.

On recent results Omar starts 55 points ahead. Campaign work can move about 11,449 net votes toward Nagel, a 3.9-point gain. Winning outright would take a 51.5-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Nagel the one standing when a wave comes.

164,191

net votes between Nagel and a win

days to election day. Absentee voting opened September 18.

55.3 pts

Omar lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Minnesota races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 51.5-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find164,191

WhereMinneapolis, St. Louis Park, Golden Valley

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Omar +55.3. John Nagel needs 164,191 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

148,397 votes.

That is half of the 296,793 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Nagel stands today, and what is missing:

63,444 John Nagel baseline

227,636 Ilhan Omar baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the 2024 and 2022 official results in this district (House, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Nagel wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Nagel short by 152,625.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

11K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 11,026

Who. 11,026 voters who split their ticket in 2024 or 2022 and lean Omar today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines in 2024 or 2022, plus the undecided. Nagel needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Omar.

Mobilize

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 0

Who. There are almost no places Nagel's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

423

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,210

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the towns that lean his way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 11,449 net votes against a gap of 164,191. Still 152,742 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 51.5 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 cities and townships carry 98% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Minneapolispersuade
Starting line Omar +69. 5.6% split their ticket.
+5,155
02
St. Louis Parkpersuade
Starting line Omar +43. 10.0% split their ticket.
+1,288
03
Golden Valleypersuade
Starting line Omar +41. 11.4% split their ticket.
+764
04
Richfieldpersuade
Starting line Omar +39. 9.5% split their ticket.
+742
05
Edinapersuade
Starting line Omar +22. 18.6% split their ticket.
+597
06
Fridleypersuade
Starting line Omar +20. 10.2% split their ticket.
+555
07
Crystalpersuade
Starting line Omar +27. 9.6% split their ticket.
+484
08
New Hopepersuade
Starting line Omar +28. 10.2% split their ticket.
+449
09
Columbia Heightspersuade
Starting line Omar +37. 8.9% split their ticket.
+353
10
Brooklyn Centerpersuade
Starting line Omar +38. 7.8% split their ticket.
+352
11
Robbinsdalepersuade
Starting line Omar +44. 8.5% split their ticket.
+297
12
St. Anthonypersuade
Starting line Omar +36. 10.7% split their ticket.
+182

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

The first-ring suburbs are closer than Minneapolis.

Fridley, Crystal, New Hope and the Edina precincts lean the incumbent by 20 to 28 points, less than half the Minneapolis margin.

There are two challengers.

An independent, DeVelle Jackson, is also on the ballot. Voters who want a change have two places to go, which splits the persuadable pool.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 11,449 net votes. The gap is 164,191. That is not a reason to stop. It is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 3.9 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

Money.

Nagel raised $747,000 through July, second only to Jake Johnson among this fall's challengers to sitting Minnesota House members. That funds a real contact program.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Nagel's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 217
Slope: 1.077
R²: 0.864
Residual SD: 7.5 pts
Crossover precincts: 38

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Nagel's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 38 days

Ballots are already coming in.

Now to October 4
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities. Every conversation tags the voter: with Nagel, with Omar, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 5 to 15
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 11,026 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 16 to 27
Bank the ballots
From October 16 early voters feed ballots straight into the counter. About 37,000 absentee ballots had already been requested in this district (our estimate from county counts) by September 24. Chase every supporter's request until it is returned.
October 28 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 0 of them live where Nagel is favored. Mail ballots must arrive by November 3; a postmark does not count.
November 3
Election day
Minnesota registers voters at the polls with proof of residence. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Omar won by 49.8 points in both 2022 and 2024. No 2026 general election polls have been published.

Nagel wins half of the ticket splitters leaning Omar, the ceiling.
Fridley, Edina's slice of the district and Crystal are the closest ground.
A national wave of about 51.5 points arrives on top of a flawless campaign.
Anything short of that is still a result worth building: every point gained here is a list of identified voters for the next race.

The work

2,523 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 48,151 dials to 16,050 households, before the last ballot is cast.

16K

households on the target list

48K

dials across three attempts

2,523

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. Households at 0.69 per voter, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,364 at our published rates: 16,050 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

John Nagel (R)

Retired law enforcement officer and the 2024 GOP nominee for Minnesota House District 46A.

Cash on hand $46,922, raised $747,046, FEC candidate totals through July 22, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Ilhan Omar (DFL)

Former state representative and the first Somali American elected to Congress, representing Minneapolis since 2019.

Cash on hand $1,347,365, raised $5,829,715, FEC candidate totals through July 22, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

DeVelle Jackson (I)

Construction field engineer and union carpenter who grew up in St. Paul and Minneapolis.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Omar +55.3. John Nagel needs 164,191 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can John Nagel win Minnesota's 5th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 11,449 net votes; the gap is 164,191. The rest would take a 51.5-point national shift.

Where are the votes John Nagel needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Minneapolis, St. Louis Park, Golden Valley, Richfield, Edina. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2024 and 2022 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does John Nagel need to persuade?

About 5,513 voters who lean Ilhan Omar today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 11,026 persuadable voters leaning Ilhan Omar.

When does early voting start in Minnesota in 2026?

Absentee voting in person and by mail began September 18, 2026. From October 16, early voters put their ballots directly into the tabulator. Absentee ballots must be received by November 3; Minnesota also registers voters on election day.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Minnesota Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Minnesota Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.