Upset Brief · MN-06 · Doug Chapin (DFL) vs. Tom Emmer (R), incumbent

Chapin gets within 9,129 votes on campaign work alone. A 2.8-point national shift finishes it.

1%
odds today
30%
odds with the plan
35,566
net votes to find
38
days left, ballots already coming in
Where
  1. 01
    Blaine
    Starting line Chapin +11. 6.2% split their ticket.
    +2,330
  2. 02
    St. Cloud
    Starting line Chapin +12. 7.0% split their ticket. 7,467 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +1,901
  3. 03
    Chanhassen
    Starting line Chapin +16. 6.3% split their ticket. 3,241 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +1,265
  4. 04
    Andover
    Starting line Emmer +9. 5.8% split their ticket.
    +1,238
  5. 05
    Chaska
    Starting line Chapin +14. 4.6% split their ticket. 4,196 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +1,067
  6. 06
    Ramsey
    Starting line Emmer +9. 6.2% split their ticket.
    +915

The top 12 cities and townships carry 49% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    Ticket splitters and the 9 percent undecided: 25,052 leaning Emmer, most in Blaine, St. Cloud, Andover and Chanhassen.
    +25,052
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 16,575 voters who skipped 2022 in St. Cloud, Chaska and Chanhassen, the places Chapin carries.
    +773
  • C
    Consolidate
    Third-party voters in the Carver and Stearns towns that lean his way.
    +612

Plus a national shift of 2.8 points of margin (9,129 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Chapin wins half of the splitters and undecided voters now leaning Emmer.
  2. In St. Cloud, Chaska and Chanhassen, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 2.8 points toward the challenger's side.
  4. The resources gap closes enough to fund the contact: Emmer had $4.5 million in cash in July to Chapin's $70,000.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    269 precincts, R² 0.968, 34 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -38,121 to 20,566 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC report through July 22
    Chapin $70,293 cash on hand; Emmer $4,496,007.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    47,214 households, 141,643 dials, about 7,422 live conversations: an estimated $13,437 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $13,437 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Minnesota races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Minnesota Secretary of State precinct returns (2022, 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.