Minnesota · U.S. House · District 6 · November 3, 2026

How Doug Chapin wins.

Emmer leads by 10 in Chapin's own poll. Campaign work can move 26,437 net votes; the remaining 9,129 need a 2.8-point shift in the national mood. If his poll is right, the gap is smallest where the district is growing: Carver County sits at even and St. Cloud leans Chapin.

35,566

net votes between Chapin and a win

days to election day. Absentee voting opened September 18.

11.0 pts

Emmer lead, our starting line from 2026 polls

In short

One-page brief ›All Minnesota races ranked ›

Chapin gets within 9,129 votes on campaign work alone. A 2.8-point national shift finishes it.

Odds today1%

Odds with the plan30%

Net votes to find35,566

WhereBlaine, St. Cloud, Chanhassen

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Emmer +11.0. Doug Chapin needs 35,566 net votes. Odds 1% today, 30% with the plan.

The number

161,666 votes.

That is half of the 323,330 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Chapin stands today, and what is missing:

141,941 Doug Chapin baseline

177,507 Tom Emmer baseline

Starting line: Emmer +11.0 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each city's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

1% today. 30% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Chapin wins in

30%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Chapin short by 9,271.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

25K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 25,052

Who. Ticket splitters and the 9 percent undecided: 25,052 leaning Emmer, most in Blaine, St. Cloud, Andover and Chanhassen.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines in 2024 or 2022, plus the undecided. Chapin needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Emmer.

Mobilize

773

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 16,575

Who. At least 16,575 voters who skipped 2022 in St. Cloud, Chaska and Chanhassen, the places Chapin carries.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

612

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 1,748

Who. Third-party voters in the Carver and Stearns towns that lean his way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 26,437 net votes against a gap of 35,566. Still 9,129 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 2.8 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 cities and townships carry 49% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Blainepersuade
Starting line Chapin +11. 6.2% split their ticket.
+2,330
02
St. Cloudpersuade
Starting line Chapin +12. 7.0% split their ticket. 7,467 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+1,901
03
Chanhassenpersuade
Starting line Chapin +16. 6.3% split their ticket. 3,241 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+1,265
04
Andoverpersuade
Starting line Emmer +9. 5.8% split their ticket.
+1,238
05
Chaskapersuade
Starting line Chapin +14. 4.6% split their ticket. 4,196 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+1,067
06
Ramseypersuade
Starting line Emmer +9. 6.2% split their ticket.
+915
07
Elk Riverpersuade
Starting line Emmer +13. 6.4% split their ticket.
+879
08
Lino Lakespersuade
Starting line Chapin +2. 5.8% split their ticket.
+838
09
St. Michaelpersuade
Starting line Emmer +15. 6.0% split their ticket.
+721
10
Otsegopersuade
Starting line Emmer +16. 5.4% split their ticket.
+693
11
Ham Lakepersuade
Starting line Emmer +21. 5.8% split their ticket.
+640
12
Sartellpersuade
Starting line Emmer +8. 6.4% split their ticket.
+572

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

This is not the 6th it used to be.

On our starting line, the district's part of Carver County sits at even and its part of Stearns within about a point. The seat's reputation comes from Wright and Sherburne. Its opening comes from the fast-growing suburbs on the southwest edge.

St. Cloud is the anchor.

St. Cloud leans Chapin on our starting line and has 7,467 more ballots cast in 2024 than in 2022. It is both a persuasion and a turnout city.

Blaine is the biggest prize.

Blaine carries more net votes in this plan than any other city: 2,330. It is large, and about 6 percent of its voters split their tickets.

An election expert on the ballot.

Chapin founded electionline.org and led Pew's elections work. That is a credential voters understand, and it belongs in every persuasion call.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Chapin's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 269
Slope: 0.918
R²: 0.968
Residual SD: 3.4 pts
Crossover precincts: 34

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Chapin's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 38 days

Ballots are already coming in.

Now to October 4
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities. Every conversation tags the voter: with Chapin, with Emmer, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 5 to 15
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 25,052 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 16 to 27
Bank the ballots
From October 16 early voters feed ballots straight into the counter. About 27,000 absentee ballots had already been requested in this district (our estimate from county counts) by September 24. Chase every supporter's request until it is returned.
October 28 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 16,575 of them live where Chapin is favored. Mail ballots must arrive by November 3; a postmark does not count.
November 3
Election day
Minnesota registers voters at the polls with proof of residence. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Emmer won by 24 points in 2022 and 25 in 2024. The only 2026 poll, from Chapin's campaign, has it at 10.

Chapin wins half of the splitters and undecided voters now leaning Emmer.
In St. Cloud, Chaska and Chanhassen, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 2.8 points toward the challenger's side.
The resources gap closes enough to fund the contact: Emmer had $4.5 million in cash in July to Chapin's $70,000.

The work

7,422 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 141,643 dials to 47,214 households, before the last ballot is cast.

47K

households on the target list

142K

dials across three attempts

7,422

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. Households at 0.69 per voter, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $13,437 at our published rates: 47,214 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Doug Chapin (DFL)

Attorney and nationally recognized election administration expert who founded electionline.org and led Pew's elections team; college professor and former congressional aide.

Cash on hand $70,293, raised $438,700, FEC candidate totals through July 22, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Tom Emmer (R)

House Majority Whip, attorney, and former state representative who has represented the northwest suburbs and St. Cloud area since 2015.

Cash on hand $4,496,007, raised $9,786,064, FEC candidate totals through July 22, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Emmer +11.0. Doug Chapin needs 35,566 net votes. Odds 1% today, 30% with the plan.

Questions

Can Doug Chapin win Minnesota's 6th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 26,437 net votes; the gap is 35,566. The rest would take a 2.8-point national shift.

Where are the votes Doug Chapin needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Blaine, St. Cloud, Chanhassen, Andover, Chaska. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2024 and 2022 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Doug Chapin need to persuade?

About 12,526 voters who lean Tom Emmer today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 25,052 persuadable voters leaning Tom Emmer.

When does early voting start in Minnesota in 2026?

Absentee voting in person and by mail began September 18, 2026. From October 16, early voters put their ballots directly into the tabulator. Absentee ballots must be received by November 3; Minnesota also registers voters on election day.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Minnesota Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Minnesota Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.