A long shot on the math: it takes a 33.7-point national wave.

1. 01
   Moorhead

   Starting line Osberg +12. 5.8% split their ticket.
   +494
2. 02
   Alexandria

   Starting line Fischbach +29. 9.7% split their ticket.
   +305
3. 03
   Willmar

   Starting line Fischbach +15. 8.0% split their ticket.
   +281
4. 04
   Hutchinson

   Starting line Fischbach +26. 8.4% split their ticket.
   +277
5. 05
   Marshall

   Starting line Fischbach +22. 9.7% split their ticket.
   +237
6. 06
   Fergus Falls

   Starting line Fischbach +23. 6.1% split their ticket.
   +200

The top 12 cities and townships carry 17% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  14,606 voters who split their ticket in 2024 or 2022 and lean Fischbach today.
  +14,606
• M
  Mobilize

  At least 59 voters who skipped the 2022 midterm in the few places Osberg carries.
  +4
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the towns that lean his way.
  +840

Plus a national shift of 33.7 points of margin (104,325 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Osberg wins half of the ticket splitters leaning Fischbach, the ceiling.
2. Moorhead, where Clay County sits near even, is the natural anchor.
3. A national wave of about 33.7 points arrives on top of a flawless campaign.
4. Anything short of that is still a result worth building: every point gained here is a list of identified voters for the next race.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  1,313 precincts, R² 0.958, 234 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -140,346 to -67,582 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC report through July 22

  Osberg $114,432 cash on hand; Fischbach $919,823.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  21,852 households, 65,556 dials, about 3,435 live conversations: an estimated $7,578 at published rates.