Minnesota · U.S. House · District 7 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Erik Osberg.

On recent results Fischbach starts 39 points ahead. Campaign work can move about 15,450 net votes toward Osberg, a 5.0-point gain. Winning outright would take a 33.7-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Osberg the one standing when a wave comes.

119,774

net votes between Osberg and a win

days to election day. Absentee voting opened September 18.

38.7 pts

Fischbach lead, our starting line from recent results

In short

One-page brief ›All Minnesota races ranked ›

A long shot on the math: it takes a 33.7-point national wave.

Odds today0%

Odds with the plan0%

Net votes to find119,774

WhereMoorhead, Alexandria, Willmar

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Fischbach +38.7. Erik Osberg needs 119,774 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

The number

154,795 votes.

That is half of the 309,589 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Osberg stands today, and what is missing:

91,122 Erik Osberg baseline

210,896 Michelle Fischbach baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the 2024 and 2022 official results in this district (House, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

0% today. A wave changes that.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Osberg wins in

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%

The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Osberg short by 103,979.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

15K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 14,606

Who. 14,606 voters who split their ticket in 2024 or 2022 and lean Fischbach today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines in 2024 or 2022, plus the undecided. Osberg needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Fischbach.

Mobilize

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 59

Who. At least 59 voters who skipped the 2022 midterm in the few places Osberg carries.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

840

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 2,399

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the towns that lean his way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 15,450 net votes against a gap of 119,774. Still 104,324 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 33.7 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 cities and townships carry 17% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Moorheadpersuade
Starting line Osberg +12. 5.8% split their ticket.
+494
02
Alexandriapersuade
Starting line Fischbach +29. 9.7% split their ticket.
+305
03
Willmarpersuade
Starting line Fischbach +15. 8.0% split their ticket.
+281
04
Hutchinsonpersuade
Starting line Fischbach +26. 8.4% split their ticket.
+277
05
Marshallpersuade
Starting line Fischbach +22. 9.7% split their ticket.
+237
06
Fergus Fallspersuade
Starting line Fischbach +23. 6.1% split their ticket.
+200
07
Thief River Fallspersuade
Starting line Fischbach +24. 9.9% split their ticket.
+165
08
Little Fallspersuade
Starting line Fischbach +32. 8.6% split their ticket.
+158
09
Detroit Lakespersuade
Starting line Fischbach +21. 6.2% split their ticket.
+132
10
Litchfieldpersuade
Starting line Fischbach +26. 8.7% split their ticket.
+126
11
La Grand Townshippersuade
Starting line Fischbach +31. 9.3% split their ticket.
+121
12
Montevideopersuade
Starting line Fischbach +21. 12.4% split their ticket.
+119

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Moorhead and Clay County are close.

Clay County sits near even on the starting line and Moorhead leans his way. The rest of the district leans the incumbent by 20 to 50 points.

The regional centers split their tickets.

Alexandria, Willmar, Hutchinson, Marshall and Fergus Falls hold most of the persuadable voters in a district of small towns.

The honest math.

Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 15,450 net votes. The gap is 119,774. That is not a reason to stop. It is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 5.0 points of margin, and first position if the national mood breaks.

Money.

Osberg raised $335,000 through July, with $114,000 in cash. A focused program in ten regional centers fits that budget.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Osberg's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 1,313
Slope: 0.923
R²: 0.958
Residual SD: 4.1 pts
Crossover precincts: 234

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Osberg's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 38 days

Ballots are already coming in.

Now to October 4
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these cities. Every conversation tags the voter: with Osberg, with Fischbach, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 5 to 15
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 14,606 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 16 to 27
Bank the ballots
From October 16 early voters feed ballots straight into the counter. About 83,000 absentee ballots had already been requested in this district (our estimate from county counts) by September 24. Chase every supporter's request until it is returned.
October 28 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 59 of them live where Osberg is favored. Mail ballots must arrive by November 3; a postmark does not count.
November 3
Election day
Minnesota registers voters at the polls with proof of residence. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Fischbach won by 41 points in 2024 and 39.3 in 2022. No 2026 polls have been published.

Osberg wins half of the ticket splitters leaning Fischbach, the ceiling.
Moorhead, where Clay County sits near even, is the natural anchor.
A national wave of about 33.7 points arrives on top of a flawless campaign.
Anything short of that is still a result worth building: every point gained here is a list of identified voters for the next race.

The work

3,435 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 65,556 dials to 21,852 households, before the last ballot is cast.

22K

households on the target list

66K

dials across three attempts

3,435

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. Households at 0.69 per voter, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $7,578 at our published rates: 21,852 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Erik Osberg (DFL)

Otter Tail County Rural Rebound Initiative coordinator since 2017 who co-produced an Emmy-winning docuseries; Hamline graduate with a background in marketing, finance, and sports reporting.

Cash on hand $114,432, raised $334,945, FEC candidate totals through July 22, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Favorite · incumbent

Michelle Fischbach (R)

Former Minnesota Senate President and Lieutenant Governor who served in the state Senate from 1996 to 2018; now on House Ways and Means and Rules.

Cash on hand $919,823, raised $1,286,028, FEC candidate totals through July 22, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Fischbach +38.7. Erik Osberg needs 119,774 net votes. Odds 0% today, 0% with the plan.

Questions

Can Erik Osberg win Minnesota's 7th Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 15,450 net votes; the gap is 119,774. The rest would take a 33.7-point national shift.

Where are the votes Erik Osberg needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Moorhead, Alexandria, Willmar, Hutchinson, Marshall. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2024 and 2022 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Erik Osberg need to persuade?

About 7,303 voters who lean Michelle Fischbach today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 14,606 persuadable voters leaning Michelle Fischbach.

When does early voting start in Minnesota in 2026?

Absentee voting in person and by mail began September 18, 2026. From October 16, early voters put their ballots directly into the tabulator. Absentee ballots must be received by November 3; Minnesota also registers voters on election day.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Minnesota Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Minnesota Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.