A long shot on the math: it takes a 9.7-point national wave.

1. 01
   Duluth

   Starting line Swanson +39. 4.6% split their ticket. 12,372 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
   +2,650
2. 02
   Lower Red Lake

   Starting line Swanson +86. 2.7% split their ticket. 1,129 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
   +355
3. 03
   Forest Lake

   Starting line Stauber +20. 6.3% split their ticket.
   +309
4. 04
   Hibbing

   Starting line Stauber +4. 8.4% split their ticket.
   +287
5. 05
   Hugo

   Starting line Stauber +12. 6.1% split their ticket.
   +263
6. 06
   Hermantown

   Starting line Swanson +6. 6.8% split their ticket.
   +179

The top 12 cities and townships carry 36% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  11,008 ticket splitters leaning Stauber, most in Hibbing, Forest Lake, Hugo, Brainerd and Hermantown.
  +11,008
• M
  Mobilize

  At least 16,466 voters who skipped the 2022 midterm in places Swanson carries, 12,372 of them in Duluth.
  +2,202
• C
  Consolidate

  Third-party voters in the Duluth and Range towns that lean her way.
  +635

Plus a national shift of 9.7 points of margin (32,331 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Swanson wins half of the ticket splitters leaning Stauber, the ceiling.
2. In Duluth and Lower Red Lake, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
3. The national environment moves about 9.7 points toward her side, roughly the size of a wave year.
4. The cash gap narrows: Stauber had $1.2 million on hand in July to Swanson's $90,000.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  820 precincts, R² 0.986, 166 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -71,709 to 6,920 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC report through July 22

  Swanson $90,423 cash on hand; Stauber $1,200,836.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  27,804 households, 83,412 dials, about 4,371 live conversations: an estimated $9,298 at published rates.