Upset Brief · Minnesota U.S. Senate · Michele Tafoya (R) vs. Peggy Flanagan (DFL)

Tafoya can win. The math closes using 28 percent of what history allows.

29%
odds today
51%
odds with the plan
70,726
net votes to find
38
days left, ballots already coming in
Where
  1. 01
    Stearns County
    Starting line Tafoya +27. 6,719 persuadable voters leaning Flanagan; 21,527 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +4,297
  2. 02
    St. Louis County
    Starting line Flanagan +13. 8,638 persuadable voters leaning Flanagan; 26,230 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +3,598
  3. 03
    Wright County
    Starting line Tafoya +32. 6,191 persuadable voters leaning Flanagan; 23,888 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +2,536
  4. 04
    Douglas County
    Starting line Tafoya +35. 2,205 persuadable voters leaning Flanagan; 5,423 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +2,339
  5. 05
    Morrison County
    Starting line Tafoya +56. 1,595 persuadable voters leaning Flanagan; 4,901 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +2,061
  6. 06
    Mcleod County
    Starting line Tafoya +38. 1,812 persuadable voters leaning Flanagan; 4,782 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +2,019

The top 12 counties carry 36% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    Ticket splitters and the 7 to 12 percent still undecided in September polls. 227,017 of them lean Flanagan today. Densest in Todd, Douglas, Freeborn, McLeod and Lyon counties.
    +62,901
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 293,244 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in towns where Tafoya wins at least 55 percent.
    +8,911
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who backed a third party in 2024 or 2022 in towns that lean her way.
    +2,449
What has to be true
  1. Tafoya wins 14 percent of the splitters and undecided voters now leaning Flanagan. Not a landslide among them: a steady edge, town by town.
  2. In her strongest towns, 10 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The third-party vote holds near its polling level of 2 to 4 percent, and her share of it grows.
  4. No national wave is required. This plan closes the gap at 28 percent of what recent Minnesota results show is possible.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    4,061 precincts, R² 0.985, 1,036 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -204,872 to 214,577 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC report through July 22
    Tafoya $1,372,728 cash on hand; Flanagan $1,058,604.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    122,599 households, 367,798 dials, about 19,273 live conversations: an estimated $33,702 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $33,702 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Minnesota races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Minnesota Secretary of State precinct returns (2022, 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.