Minnesota · U.S. Senate · November 3, 2026

How Michele Tafoya wins.

Flanagan leads by about 2 points in the polling average. Tafoya needs 70,726 net votes, and most of them are not in the suburbs everyone watches. They are in the regional towns where Minnesotans voted for Trump and Klobuchar on the same ballot.

70,726

net votes between Tafoya and a win

days to election day. Absentee voting opened September 18.

2.8 pts

Flanagan lead, our starting line from 2026 polls

In short

One-page brief ›All Minnesota races ranked ›

Tafoya can win. The math closes using 28 percent of what history allows.

Odds today29%

Odds with the plan51%

Net votes to find70,726

WhereStearns County, St. Louis County, Wright County

Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Flanagan +2.8. Michele Tafoya needs 70,726 net votes. Odds 29% today, 51% with the plan.

The number

1,262,937 votes.

That is half of the 2,525,873 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Tafoya stands today, and what is missing:

1,200,613 Michele Tafoya baseline

1,271,339 Peggy Flanagan baseline

Starting line: Flanagan +2.8 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each city's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

29% today. 51% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Tafoya wins in

51%

of 20,000 simulated elections

With no plan

29%

How much of what history allows the campaign achieves28%

The plan on this page sits at 28%. Median outcome at this setting: Tafoya by 3,582.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade

63K

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 227,017

Who. Ticket splitters and the 7 to 12 percent still undecided in September polls. 227,017 of them lean Flanagan today. Densest in Todd, Douglas, Freeborn, McLeod and Lyon counties.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines in 2024 or 2022, plus the undecided. Tafoya needs to win 14 percent of the ones now leaning Flanagan.

Mobilize

8,911

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 293,244

Who. At least 293,244 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in towns where Tafoya wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate

2,449

net votes in the plan, from a pool of 25,257

Who. Voters who backed a third party in 2024 or 2022 in towns that lean her way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 74,261 net votes against a gap of 70,726. That is a win.

Where it is won

12 counties carry 36% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset

01
Stearns Countypersuade
Starting line Tafoya +27. 6,719 persuadable voters leaning Flanagan; 21,527 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+4,297
02
St. Louis Countypersuade
Starting line Flanagan +13. 8,638 persuadable voters leaning Flanagan; 26,230 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+3,598
03
Wright Countypersuade
Starting line Tafoya +32. 6,191 persuadable voters leaning Flanagan; 23,888 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+2,536
04
Douglas Countypersuade
Starting line Tafoya +35. 2,205 persuadable voters leaning Flanagan; 5,423 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+2,339
05
Morrison Countypersuade
Starting line Tafoya +56. 1,595 persuadable voters leaning Flanagan; 4,901 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+2,061
06
Mcleod Countypersuade
Starting line Tafoya +38. 1,812 persuadable voters leaning Flanagan; 4,782 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+2,019
07
Kandiyohi Countypersuade
Starting line Tafoya +31. 1,866 persuadable voters leaning Flanagan; 5,103 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+1,880
08
Otter Tail Countypersuade
Starting line Tafoya +36. 2,791 persuadable voters leaning Flanagan; 8,218 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+1,728
09
Sherburne Countypersuade
Starting line Tafoya +36. 3,905 persuadable voters leaning Flanagan; 16,401 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+1,693
10
Steele Countypersuade
Starting line Tafoya +24. 1,711 persuadable voters leaning Flanagan; 4,351 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+1,687
11
Rice Countypersuade
Starting line Tafoya +2. 2,658 persuadable voters leaning Flanagan; 8,030 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+1,621
12
Todd Countypersuade
Starting line Tafoya +52. 1,253 persuadable voters leaning Flanagan; 2,846 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
+1,580

What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

The last midterm was a near miss.

In 2022, with 2.5 million Minnesotans voting instead of 3.3 million, the Republican candidate for attorney general came within 20,815 votes of winning statewide. The midterm electorate is smaller and closer than the presidential one. That is the electorate voting now.

181,000 voters already split.

In 2024, Klobuchar's statewide margin was 362,782 votes larger than Harris's on the same ballots: the equivalent of about 181,000 voters choosing a Republican for president and a Democrat for Senate. With Klobuchar off the ballot, those voters are open. In this plan they show up most in the regional centers: Owatonna, Albert Lea, Faribault, Hibbing, New Ulm, Alexandria.

A blue county is her second-best ground.

St. Louis County leans Flanagan by about 13 points on our starting line, yet it carries 3,598 net votes in this plan, second only to Stearns, because so many of its voters split their tickets.

She is not outspent.

Through July, Tafoya had $1.37 million in cash on hand to Flanagan's $1.06 million. In an open seat with no incumbent, money this even means the ground game decides it.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Tafoya's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

Precincts: 4,061
Slope: 0.895
R²: 0.985
Residual SD: 4.2 pts
Crossover precincts: 1,036

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Tafoya's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 38 days

Ballots are already coming in.

Now to October 4
Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these counties. Every conversation tags the voter: with Tafoya, with Flanagan, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
October 5 to 15
Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 62,901 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
October 16 to 27
Bank the ballots
From October 16 early voters feed ballots straight into the counter. 384,678 absentee ballots had already been requested statewide by September 24. Chase every supporter's request until it is returned.
October 28 to November 2
Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 293,244 of them live where Tafoya is favored. Mail ballots must arrive by November 3; a postmark does not count.
November 3
Election day
Minnesota registers voters at the polls with proof of residence. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Minnesota has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since 2002. The KSTP/SurveyUSA poll moved from Flanagan +5 in August to a tie in September, and every September poll has the race within 4 points.

Tafoya wins 14 percent of the splitters and undecided voters now leaning Flanagan. Not a landslide among them: a steady edge, town by town.
In her strongest towns, 10 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The third-party vote holds near its polling level of 2 to 4 percent, and her share of it grows.
No national wave is required. This plan closes the gap at 28 percent of what recent Minnesota results show is possible.

The work

19,273 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 367,798 dials to 122,599 households, before the last ballot is cast.

123K

households on the target list

368K

dials across three attempts

19K

live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. Households at 0.69 per voter, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $33,702 at our published rates: 122,599 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

Run this plan How HyperPhonebank works ›Size your own program ›

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Michele Tafoya (R)

Edina resident and nearly 30-year national sports broadcaster (ABC, CBS, ESPN, NBC Sunday Night Football) with a USC MBA who now hosts a political podcast; would be Minnesota's first Hispanic U.S. senator.

Cash on hand $1,372,728, raised $5,337,942, FEC candidate totals through July 22, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Favorite

Peggy Flanagan (DFL)

Lieutenant Governor of Minnesota since 2019 and a citizen of the White Earth Nation who grew up in St. Louis Park; former Minneapolis school board member and state representative, and the first woman of color elected statewide in Minnesota.

Cash on hand $1,058,604, raised $6,517,348, FEC candidate totals through July 22, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›Wikipedia ›

Also on the ballot

Rebecca Whiting (L)

Bemidji farmer and owner of Dirty Goat Farm and Bakery, a U.S. Army Iraq War veteran, and chair of the Libertarian Party of Minnesota; 2024 Senate nominee.

Cash on hand $1,257, raised $1,257, FEC candidate totals through July 22, 2026.

Campaign site ›FEC filings ›

Also on the ballot

Marisa Simonetti (I)

Independent businesswoman running on government transparency and accountability.

Campaign site ›

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

September 26, 2026
Underdog plan published
Starting line: Flanagan +2.8. Michele Tafoya needs 70,726 net votes. Odds 29% today, 51% with the plan.

Questions

Can Michele Tafoya win the U.S. Senate race in Minnesota in 2026?

Yes, on the math. Michele Tafoya needs 70,726 net votes, and recent Minnesota results show about 268,023 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 28 percent of that.

Where are the votes Michele Tafoya needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Owatonna, Albert Lea, Faribault, Hibbing, New Ulm. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2024 and 2022 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Michele Tafoya need to persuade?

About 31,450 voters who lean Peggy Flanagan today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 14 percent of the 227,017 persuadable voters leaning Peggy Flanagan.

When does early voting start in Minnesota in 2026?

Absentee voting in person and by mail began September 18, 2026. From October 16, early voters put their ballots directly into the tabulator. Absentee ballots must be received by November 3; Minnesota also registers voters on election day.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Minnesota Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official Minnesota Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.