Montana · 2 federal races · election held November 3

Every Montana race. From the other side.

The election is over. 2 of 2 races are called so far, and 1 underdog won. Each plan below stays up as the record, with the result beside it.

The polls tell you who is ahead. These pages tell the candidate who is behind exactly how many votes they need, where those votes live, and what it takes to reach them before the last ballot is cast.

Montana's 2026 U.S. Senate race is a three-way contest between Republican Kurt Alme, independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead (with Libertarian Kyle Austin). The two-party precinct math behind these pages cannot honestly model an independent candidate's path, so the Senate race is not given a plan here.

See every race rankedOdds today → with the plan, and the call program each plan takes.

underdog plans, built from precinct returns

5,008

net votes: the closest upset in Montana (MT-01)

underdog wins out of 2 races called so far

Pick a race

2 plans. One question each.

MT-01 · open seat

How Sam Forstag wins

5,008 net votes to find, most of them in Silver Bow County and Missoula County.

Result: Sam Forstag won.

See the path and the result ›

MT-02 · vs. incumbent

What it would take for Brian Miller

54,482 net votes to find, most of them in Yellowstone County and Lewis and Clark County.

Result: Troy Downing won.

See the path and the result ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Montana Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and public polls. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Also see the Montana 2026 election guide.