Montana · 2 federal races · 37 days left
Every Montana race. From the other side.
The polls tell you who is ahead. These pages tell the candidate who is behind exactly how many votes they need, where those votes live, and what it takes to reach them before the last ballot is cast.
Montana's 2026 U.S. Senate race is a three-way contest between Republican Kurt Alme, independent Seth Bodnar and Democrat Alani Bankhead (with Libertarian Kyle Austin). The two-party precinct math behind these pages cannot honestly model an independent candidate's path, so the Senate race is not given a plan here.
See every race rankedOdds today → with the plan, and the call program each plan takes.
2
underdog plans, built from precinct returns
5,008
net votes: the closest upset in Montana (MT-01)
37
days until November 3. Absentee voting opens October 9.
Pick a race
2 plans. One question each.
MT-01 · open seat
How Sam Forstag wins
5,008 net votes to find, most of them in Silver Bow County and Missoula County.
See the path ›
MT-02 · vs. incumbent
What it would take for Brian Miller
54,482 net votes to find, most of them in Yellowstone County and Lewis and Clark County.
See the path ›
Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Montana Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and public polls. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Also see the Montana 2026 election guide.