What it would have taken for Brian Miller.
Before the election, as last updated September 26, 2026: Downing starts 25.0 points ahead on our starting line from 2026 polls. Campaign work can move about 22,358 net votes toward Miller, a 10.3-point gain. Winning outright would take a 14.7-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Miller the one standing if one comes.
Troy Downing won.
Brian Miller finished 1.0 points behind our starting line. The plan below stays up as the record of what it would have taken.
Projected winner; unofficial results until the state certifies, about 97.2% counted, so shares will shift. Source · Second source
A long shot on the math: it takes a 14.7-point national wave.
108,965 votes.
That is half of the 217,929 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Miller stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: Downing +25.0 among decided voters, from published 2026 polls, applied to each county's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
0% today. A wave changes that.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. 20,309 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Downing, plus the 12 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Miller needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Downing.
Who. Few counties give Miller's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 22,358 net votes against a gap of 54,482. Still 32,124 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 14.7 points that no campaign controls.
12 counties carry 80% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+5,953Yellowstone CountypersuadeStarting line Downing +22. 5.4% split their ticket.
- 02+3,615Lewis and Clark CountypersuadeStarting line Downing +3. 6.2% split their ticket.
- 03+3,207Cascade CountypersuadeStarting line Downing +19. 7.9% split their ticket.
- 04+913Park CountypersuadeStarting line Downing +3. 5.5% split their ticket.
- 05+653Jefferson CountypersuadeStarting line Downing +31. 6.2% split their ticket.
- 06+643Hill CountypersuadeStarting line Downing +12. 10.7% split their ticket.
- 07+549Carbon CountypersuadeStarting line Downing +28. 4.9% split their ticket.
- 08+485Fergus CountypersuadeStarting line Downing +47. 4.7% split their ticket.
- 09+475Big Horn CountypersuadeStarting line Miller +6. 14.6% split their ticket.
- 10+475Custer CountypersuadeStarting line Downing +42. 7.5% split their ticket.
- 11+401Richland CountypersuadeStarting line Downing +60. 8.7% split their ticket.
- 12+396Stillwater CountypersuadeStarting line Downing +55. 4.5% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
Yellowstone County carries the most.
Yellowstone County gives this plan more net votes than any other county: 5,953. It sits at Downing +22 on our starting line, and 5.4 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Big Horn County splits its ticket the most.
Of the counties in this plan, Big Horn County has the highest share of ticket splitters: 14.6 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.
Spend it where it counts.
As of June 30, 2026, Downing had $650K in cash on hand to Miller's $3,166. That is exactly why the plan ranks every place by net votes and spends in that order instead of across the whole map.
The honest math.
Every lever at its historical ceiling moves 22,358 net votes. The gap is 54,482. That is the measure of what a strong campaign adds: 10.3 points of margin, and a head start if the national mood breaks.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Miller's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 381
- Slope
- 0.994
- R²
- 0.989
- Residual SD
- 3.2 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 44
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Miller's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
The calendar it ran on.
- Now to October 8Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these counties. Every conversation tags the voter: with Miller, with Downing, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 9 to 18Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 20,309 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before. Every supporter it finds goes straight onto the ballot chase.
- October 19 to 27Bank the ballots
Montana mails absentee ballots starting October 9, and in-person absentee voting runs at county election offices until noon on November 2. Mail ballots must be received by 8 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Chase every supporter's mail ballot until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 28 to November 2Turn them out
The last push goes to every identified supporter who has not voted yet; few drop-off voters live where Miller is favored, so this is a chase, not a turnout drive. Mail ballots must be received by 8 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Montana registers voters at the county election office through 8 p.m. on Election Day. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: the Republican nominee carried the 2024 House race by 32.0 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 29.5 points; Sheehy carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 16.2 points.
- Miller wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Downing.
- It would take a national shift of about 14.7 points toward Miller's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
- The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
5,041 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan called for: about 96,198 dials to 32,066 households, before the last ballot was cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
Running next cycle? We run lists like this.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $10,322 at our published rates: 32,066 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Brian Miller (D)
Helena attorney in private practice who represents small businesses, consumers and individual clients in civil cases; a Florida native who has lived in Montana since the late 1990s.
Cash on hand $3,166 and $19,174 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Troy Downing (R)
U.S. representative for the 2nd District since 2025 and Montana state auditor from 2021 to 2025; Air Force veteran who deployed twice to Afghanistan as a combat search and rescue flight engineer; founded the web calendar company WebCal, later acquired by Yahoo.
Cash on hand $650,464 and $2,127,927 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Michael Eisenhauer (I)
Great Falls interventional cardiologist and retired Army colonel with 24 years of service and a Bronze Star; Georgetown medical graduate who trained in cardiology at Madigan Army Medical Center.
Cash on hand $140,122 and $296,253 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Patrick McCracken (L)
Fourth-generation Montanan and Billings West High graduate with more than 20 years in financial services, including about a decade as a financial advisor; now lives in Columbia Falls.
What changed, and when.
We re-ran this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrived, and logged the result against the plan. Every change is listed here.
- November 5, 2026Result: Brian Miller lost
Unofficial result: Brian Miller 32.2%, Troy Downing 58.2%, a margin of 26.0 points. Our starting line had Downing +25.0; Miller fell short of that line by 1.0 points. This page stays up as the record of the plan and how it compared with the outcome.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Downing +25.0. Brian Miller needs 54,482 net votes. Odds 0% today, 1% with the plan.
Questions
Who won MT-02 in 2026?
Troy Downing won on November 3, 2026. Unofficial result: Brian Miller 32.2%, Troy Downing 58.2%, a margin of 26.0 points. Our starting line had Downing +25.0; Miller fell short of that line by 1.0 points.
Can Brian Miller win Montana's 2nd Congressional District in 2026?
Not on current numbers. Campaign work can move about 22,358 net votes against a gap of 54,482; the rest would take a 14.7-point national shift, far larger than any recent midterm has produced.
Where are the votes Brian Miller needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Yellowstone County, Lewis and Clark County, Cascade County, Park County, Jefferson County. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Brian Miller need to persuade?
About 10,154 voters who lean Troy Downing today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 20,309 persuadable voters leaning Troy Downing.
When does early voting start in Montana in 2026?
Montana mails absentee ballots starting October 9, 2026, and in-person absentee voting runs at county election offices until noon on November 2. Mail ballots must be received by 8 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count. Regular registration closes October 5, and late registration at the county election office runs through 8 p.m. on Election Day.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Montana Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Montana Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Montana Secretary of State, election results
- Montana Secretary of State, 2026 absentee ballot counts
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
- Poll: Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling (2026-08-27 to 2026-09-07)
Race coverage
- Wikipedia: Montana's 2nd congressional district
- Montana Free Press: Troy Downing has substantial lead in Eastern U.S. House District
- Montana Public Radio: Q&A: Patrick McCracken, Libertarian eastern district U.S. House candidate