How Sam Forstag wins.
A true toss-up between Forstag and Flint: the 2 public 2026 polls average within one point. In a tied race, the plan aims for a 2-point cushion: 5,008 net votes, most of them in Silver Bow County, Missoula County and Lake County.
Forstag can win. The math closes using 19 percent of what history allows.
125,199 votes.
That is half of the 250,397 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Forstag stands today, and what is missing:
Starting line: a tie (the 2 public 2026 polls average within one point), applied to each county's pattern in the 2022 and 2024 official returns. In a tied race the plan aims for a 2-point cushion. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.
50% today. 66% with the plan.
We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.
Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 5 points of margin (the starting line comes from 2026 polls) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.
The gap closes three ways.
Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.
Who. Ticket splitters and the 12 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 22,688 leaning Flint today.
How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Forstag needs to win 10 percent of the ones now leaning Flint.
Who. At least 41,855 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in counties where Forstag's side wins at least 55 percent.
How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.
Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Forstag's way.
How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.
Together: 5,258 net votes against a gap of 5,008. That is a win.
10 counties carry 100% of it.
Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.
- 01+1,828Silver Bow CountypersuadeStarting line Forstag +23. 11.8% split their ticket.
- 02+670Missoula CountymobilizeStarting line Forstag +33. 6.1% split their ticket. 16,866 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
- 03+645Lake CountypersuadeStarting line Flint +9. 6.8% split their ticket.
- 04+506Deer Lodge CountypersuadeStarting line Forstag +18. 11.4% split their ticket.
- 05+445Beaverhead CountypersuadeStarting line Flint +33. 7.3% split their ticket.
- 06+396Glacier CountypersuadeStarting line Forstag +30. 11.8% split their ticket.
- 07+288Powell CountypersuadeStarting line Flint +41. 10.2% split their ticket.
- 08+227Mineral CountypersuadeStarting line Flint +36. 8.5% split their ticket.
- 09+183Granite CountypersuadeStarting line Flint +31. 8.3% split their ticket.
- 10+70Pondera CountypersuadeStarting line Flint +22. 7.8% split their ticket.
The hidden path.
The ratings are moving.
On September 25, the Cook Political Report moved Montana's 1st from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. The three public polls since June range from Flint by one to Forstag by two.
Silver Bow County carries the most.
Silver Bow County gives this plan more net votes than any other county: 1,828. It sits at Forstag +23 on our starting line, and 11.8 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.
Missoula County is a turnout race.
Forstag's side leads Missoula County by about 33 points on our starting line, and it cast 16,866 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022. Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 590 votes there.
Forstag has the cash edge.
As of June 30, 2026, the close of the latest FEC reporting period, Forstag had $550K in cash on hand to Flint's $502K. The underdog can fund the contact this plan takes.
Where voters cross over.
Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Forstag's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.
- Precincts
- 344
- Slope
- 1.008
- R²
- 0.994
- Residual SD
- 3.1 pts
- Crossover precincts
- 42
Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Forstag's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.
Voting starts October 9.
- Now to October 8Find them
Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these counties. Every conversation tags the voter: with Forstag, with Flint, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.
- October 9 to 18Persuade
Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 4,401 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.
- October 19 to 27Bank the ballots
Montana mails absentee ballots starting October 9, and in-person absentee voting runs at county election offices until noon on November 2. Mail ballots must be received by 8 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.
- October 28 to November 2Turn them out
The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 41,855 of them live where Forstag is favored. Mail ballots must be received by 8 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count.
- November 3Election day
Polls are open 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. Montana registers voters at the county election office through 8 p.m. on Election Day. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.
No wishful thinking.
Official results in this district: the Republican nominee carried the 2024 House race by 7.7 points; Trump carried the 2024 presidential race by 11.6 points; Tester carried the 2024 U.S. Senate race by 0.7 points.
- Forstag wins 10 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Flint.
- In Missoula County, 7 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- No national wave is required. The plan closes at 19 percent of what recent Montana results show is possible.
- The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
1,641 conversations.
That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 31,309 dials to 10,436 households, before the last ballot is cast.
Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.
We run this list.
Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $4,657 at our published rates: 10,436 households, three attempts each.
Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.
Who is on the ballot.
Sam Forstag (D)
Vice president of NFFE Local 60, representing about 800 U.S. Forest Service workers, after eight years as a wildland firefighter including four as a smokejumper; moved to Montana in 2012 and was student body president at the University of Montana.
Cash on hand $550,079 and $1,382,873 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Aaron Flint (R)
Fifth-generation Montanan raised in Glasgow and the Flathead; retired lieutenant colonel with more than 20 years in the Army National Guard and Reserve, two Bronze Stars and combat patrols in Iraq and Afghanistan; longtime statewide talk radio host (Montana Talks) and University of Montana graduate.
Cash on hand $502,201 and $1,296,232 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.
Nick Sheedy (L)
Libertarian nominee from Columbia Falls running on strengthening the War Powers Resolution, monetary reform and better multiple-use management of public lands.
What changed, and when.
We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.
- September 26, 2026Underdog plan published
Starting line: Flint +0.0. Sam Forstag needs 5,008 net votes. Odds 35% today, 51% with the plan.
Questions
Can Sam Forstag win Montana's 1st Congressional District in 2026?
Yes, on the math. Sam Forstag needs 5,008 net votes, and recent Montana results show about 27,108 are reachable through persuasion, turnout and third-party voters. The plan closes the gap using 19 percent of that.
Where are the votes Sam Forstag needs?
Ranked by net votes in the plan: Silver Bow County, Missoula County, Lake County, Deer Lodge County, Beaverhead County. Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.
How many voters does Sam Forstag need to persuade?
About 2,200 voters who lean Aaron Flint today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 10 percent of the 22,688 persuadable voters leaning Aaron Flint.
When does early voting start in Montana in 2026?
Montana mails absentee ballots starting October 9, 2026, and in-person absentee voting runs at county election offices until noon on November 2. Mail ballots must be received by 8 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count. Regular registration closes October 5, and late registration at the county election office runs through 8 p.m. on Election Day.
Who made this analysis?
The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official Montana Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.
Method and sources
Precinct math from official Montana Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.
Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (5 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.
- Montana Secretary of State, election results
- Montana Secretary of State, 2026 absentee ballot counts
- FEC candidate filings (OpenFEC)
- 2026 voter contact benchmarks (The Political Group)
- Poll: Public Policy Polling (2026-09-09 to 2026-09-10)
- Poll: Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling (2026-08-27 to 2026-09-07)
- Poll: Impact Research (2026-06-22 to 2026-06-25)
- Poll: Upswing Research (2026-04-30 to 2026-05-05)
Race coverage
- Wikipedia: Montana's 1st congressional district
- Montana Free Press: Flint, Forstag in dead heat for House seat