Where a dollar moves a Montana race.
The November 3, 2026 election is over; each race now shows its result beside the plan, which stays up as the record. 2 federal races, seen from the underdog's side. Ranked by how far a disciplined voter contact plan moves the underdog's odds, from 20,000 seeded simulations per race built on official precinct returns.
| Race | Odds: today → with the plan | Lift | Net votes | Call program | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MT-01 Sam Forstag vs. Aaron Flint | 50% → 66% | +16 pts | 5,008 | $4,657 10,436 households | Sam Forstag won | Brief › |
| MT-02 Brian Miller vs. Troy Downing | 0% → 1% | +1 pts | 54,482 | $10,322 32,066 households | Troy Downing won | Brief › |
Lift is the gain in win probability when the plan is executed. Call program: every household on the plan's target list, three attempts each, at published HyperPhonebank rates. Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of each plan: they find the persuadable voters and the supporters so every other dollar lands on the right door.
Forstag can win. The plan uses 19 percent of what history allows.
Where
- Silver Bow County +1,828Starting line Forstag +23. 11.8% split their ticket.
- Missoula County +670Starting line Forstag +33. 6.1% split their ticket. 16,866 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
- Lake County +645Starting line Flint +9. 6.8% split their ticket.
- Deer Lodge County +506Starting line Forstag +18. 11.4% split their ticket.
- Beaverhead County +445Starting line Flint +33. 7.3% split their ticket.
The top 10 counties carry 100% of the plan.
How
- Persuade +4,40122,688 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Flint, plus the 12 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
- Mobilize +590At least 41,855 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in counties where Forstag's side wins at least 55 percent.
- Consolidate +267Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Forstag's way.
What has to be true
- Forstag wins 10 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Flint.
- In Missoula County, 7 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
- No national wave is required. The plan uses 19 percent of what recent Montana results show is possible.
- The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
- Crossover regression344 precincts, slope 1.008, R² 0.994, 42 crossover precincts
- Monte Carlo20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -15,321 to 26,045
- Cash on hand, June 30Forstag $550,079 · Flint $502,201
- Call program10,436 households, 31,309 dials, about 1,641 live conversations and 560 voter IDs, at $0.4462 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
A long shot on the math: it takes a 14.7-point national wave.
Where
- Yellowstone County +5,953Starting line Downing +22. 5.4% split their ticket.
- Lewis and Clark County +3,615Starting line Downing +3. 6.2% split their ticket.
- Cascade County +3,207Starting line Downing +19. 7.9% split their ticket.
- Park County +913Starting line Downing +3. 5.5% split their ticket.
- Jefferson County +653Starting line Downing +31. 6.2% split their ticket.
The top 12 counties carry 80% of the plan.
How
- Persuade +20,30920,309 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Downing, plus the 12 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
- Mobilize +0Few counties give Miller's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
- Consolidate +2,049Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.
Plus a 14.7-point national shift (32,124 votes) that no campaign controls.
What has to be true
- Miller wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Downing.
- It would take a national shift of about 14.7 points toward Miller's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
- The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
- Crossover regression381 precincts, slope 0.994, R² 0.989, 44 crossover precincts
- Monte Carlo20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -52,610 to -10,554
- Cash on hand, June 30Miller $3,166 · Downing $650,464
- Call program32,066 households, 96,198 dials, about 5,041 live conversations and 1,719 voter IDs, at $0.3219 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Montana Secretary of State precinct returns, FEC filings and published polls. Baseline error and plan efficacy are stated assumptions shown on each race page. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Text or call Frank Carrasco, 469.639.1600.