The Political Group · Montana 2026 · as of September 26, 2026

Where a dollar moves a Montana race.

2 federal races, seen from the underdog's side. Ranked by how far a disciplined voter contact plan moves the underdog's odds, from 20,000 seeded simulations per race built on official precinct returns.

RaceOdds: today → with the planLiftNet votesCall program
MT-01
Sam Forstag vs. Aaron Flint
50% → 66%+16 pts5,008$4,657
10,436 households
Brief ›
MT-02
Brian Miller vs. Troy Downing
0% → 1%+1 pts54,482$10,322
32,066 households
Brief ›

Lift is the gain in win probability when the plan is executed. Call program: every household on the plan's target list, three attempts each, at published HyperPhonebank rates. Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of each plan: they find the persuadable voters and the supporters so every other dollar lands on the right door.

Upset Brief · MT-01 · Sam Forstag (D) vs. Aaron Flint (R)

Forstag can win. The math closes using 19 percent of what history allows.

Odds today50%
With the plan66%
Net votes to find5,008
Call program$4,657

Where

  1. Silver Bow County +1,828
    Starting line Forstag +23. 11.8% split their ticket.
  2. Missoula County +670
    Starting line Forstag +33. 6.1% split their ticket. 16,866 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
  3. Lake County +645
    Starting line Flint +9. 6.8% split their ticket.
  4. Deer Lodge County +506
    Starting line Forstag +18. 11.4% split their ticket.
  5. Beaverhead County +445
    Starting line Flint +33. 7.3% split their ticket.

The top 10 counties carry 100% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +4,401
    Ticket splitters and the 12 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 22,688 leaning Flint today.
  • Mobilize +590
    At least 41,855 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in counties where Forstag's side wins at least 55 percent.
  • Consolidate +267
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Forstag's way.

What has to be true

  1. Forstag wins 10 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Flint.
  2. In Missoula County, 7 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan closes at 19 percent of what recent Montana results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    344 precincts, slope 1.008, R² 0.994, 42 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -15,321 to 26,045
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Forstag $550,079 · Flint $502,201
  • Call program
    10,436 households, 31,309 dials, about 1,641 live conversations and 560 voter IDs, at $0.4462 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)
Upset Brief · MT-02 · Brian Miller (D) vs. Troy Downing (R) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 14.7-point national wave.

Odds today0%
With the plan1%
Net votes to find54,482
Call program$10,322

Where

  1. Yellowstone County +5,953
    Starting line Downing +22. 5.4% split their ticket.
  2. Lewis and Clark County +3,615
    Starting line Downing +3. 6.2% split their ticket.
  3. Cascade County +3,207
    Starting line Downing +19. 7.9% split their ticket.
  4. Park County +913
    Starting line Downing +3. 5.5% split their ticket.
  5. Jefferson County +653
    Starting line Downing +31. 6.2% split their ticket.

The top 12 counties carry 80% of the plan.

How

  • Persuade +20,309
    Ticket splitters and the 12 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 20,309 leaning Downing today.
  • Mobilize +0
    There are almost no counties Miller's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.
  • Consolidate +2,049
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Miller's way.

Plus a 14.7-point national shift (32,124 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

  1. Miller wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Downing.
  2. The national environment moves about 14.7 points toward Miller's side between now and November 3.
  3. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

  • Crossover regression
    381 precincts, slope 0.994, R² 0.989, 44 crossover precincts
  • Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -52,610 to -10,554
  • Cash on hand, June 30
    Miller $3,166 · Downing $650,464
  • Call program
    32,066 households, 96,198 dials, about 5,041 live conversations and 1,719 voter IDs, at $0.3219 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Montana Secretary of State precinct returns, FEC filings and published polls. Baseline error and plan efficacy are stated assumptions shown on each race page. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Text or call Frank Carrasco, 469.639.1600.