Upset Brief · MT-01 · Sam Forstag (D) vs. Aaron Flint (R)

Forstag can win. The plan uses 19 percent of what history allows.

50%
odds today
66%
odds with the plan
5,008
net votes to find
Sam Forstag won
result of the November 3, 2026 election
Where
  1. 01
    Silver Bow County
    Starting line Forstag +23. 11.8% split their ticket.
    +1,828
  2. 02
    Missoula County
    Starting line Forstag +33. 6.1% split their ticket. 16,866 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
    +670
  3. 03
    Lake County
    Starting line Flint +9. 6.8% split their ticket.
    +645
  4. 04
    Deer Lodge County
    Starting line Forstag +18. 11.4% split their ticket.
    +506
  5. 05
    Beaverhead County
    Starting line Flint +33. 7.3% split their ticket.
    +445
  6. 06
    Glacier County
    Starting line Forstag +30. 11.8% split their ticket.
    +396

The top 10 counties carry 100% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    22,688 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Flint, plus the 12 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
    +4,401
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 41,855 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in counties where Forstag's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +590
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Forstag's way.
    +267
What has to be true
  1. Forstag wins 10 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Flint.
  2. In Missoula County, 7 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. No national wave is required. The plan uses 19 percent of what recent Montana results show is possible.
  4. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    344 precincts, R² 0.994, 42 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -15,321 to 26,045 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Forstag $550,079 cash on hand; Flint $502,201.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    10,436 households, 31,309 dials, about 1,641 live conversations: an estimated $4,657 at published rates.
For the campaign

Run this list with HyperPhonebank.

Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $4,657 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

Fund the contact, see every call.

A program on this list with a dashboard you can watch daily: conversations, voter IDs and ballots chased, precinct by precinct.

The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All Montana races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official Montana Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.