A long shot on the math: it takes a 14.7-point national wave.

1. 01
   Yellowstone County

   Starting line Downing +22. 5.4% split their ticket.
   +5,953
2. 02
   Lewis and Clark County

   Starting line Downing +3. 6.2% split their ticket.
   +3,615
3. 03
   Cascade County

   Starting line Downing +19. 7.9% split their ticket.
   +3,207
4. 04
   Park County

   Starting line Downing +3. 5.5% split their ticket.
   +913
5. 05
   Jefferson County

   Starting line Downing +31. 6.2% split their ticket.
   +653
6. 06
   Hill County

   Starting line Downing +12. 10.7% split their ticket.
   +643

The top 12 counties carry 80% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  Ticket splitters and the 12 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 20,309 leaning Downing today.
  +20,309
• M
  Mobilize

  There are almost no counties Miller's side carries, so turnout alone cannot help here.
  +0
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Miller's way.
  +2,049

Plus a national shift of 14.7 points of margin (32,124 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Miller wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Downing.
2. The national environment moves about 14.7 points toward Miller's side between now and November 3.
3. The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  381 precincts, R² 0.989, 44 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -52,610 to -10,554 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Miller $3,166 cash on hand; Downing $650,464.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  32,066 households, 96,198 dials, about 5,041 live conversations: an estimated $10,322 at published rates.