A long shot on the math: it takes a 14.7-point national wave.

1. 01
   Yellowstone County

   Starting line Downing +22. 5.4% split their ticket.
   +5,953
2. 02
   Lewis and Clark County

   Starting line Downing +3. 6.2% split their ticket.
   +3,615
3. 03
   Cascade County

   Starting line Downing +19. 7.9% split their ticket.
   +3,207
4. 04
   Park County

   Starting line Downing +3. 5.5% split their ticket.
   +913
5. 05
   Jefferson County

   Starting line Downing +31. 6.2% split their ticket.
   +653
6. 06
   Hill County

   Starting line Downing +12. 10.7% split their ticket.
   +643

The top 12 counties carry 80% of the plan.

• P
  Persuade

  20,309 voters in play: ticket splitters now leaning Downing, plus the 12 percent still undecided in the latest poll.
  +20,309
• M
  Mobilize

  Few counties give Miller's side 55 percent or more, so turnout is a small lever here; the plan leans on persuasion instead.
  +0
• C
  Consolidate

  Voters who went third party in recent races, in the closest places on the map.
  +2,049

Plus a national shift of 14.7 points of margin (32,124 votes) that no campaign controls.

1. Miller wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Downing.
2. It would take a national shift of about 14.7 points toward Miller's side, larger than any midterm swing in recent memory.
3. The starting line comes from the published 2026 head-to-head polls between these two finalists, sponsored ones included; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

• 01
  Crossover regression

  381 precincts, R² 0.989, 44 crossover precincts identified
• 02
  Monte Carlo

  20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -52,610 to -10,554 votes.
• 03
  Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30

  Miller $3,166 cash on hand; Downing $650,464.
• 04
  Call program for this list

  32,066 households, 96,198 dials, about 5,041 live conversations: an estimated $10,322 at published rates.