Upset Brief · NM-01 · Didi Okpareke (R) vs. Melanie Stansbury (D), incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 9.5-point national wave.

5%
odds today
9%
odds with the plan
33,248
net votes to find
37
days left; voting starts October 6
Where
  1. 01
    Precinct 13 (Torrance County)
    Starting line Okpareke +40. 4.1% split their ticket. About 199 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +38
  2. 02
    Precinct 1 (Guadalupe County)
    Starting line Stansbury +15. 12.0% split their ticket.
    +37
  3. 03
    Precinct 157 (Santa Fe County)
    Starting line Okpareke +50. 3.4% split their ticket. About 165 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +36
  4. 04
    Precinct 7 (Torrance County)
    Starting line Okpareke +47. 3.3% split their ticket. About 169 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +36
  5. 05
    Precinct 10 (Chaves County)
    Starting line Okpareke +72. 2.6% split their ticket. About 106 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +35
  6. 06
    Precinct 138 (Sandoval County)
    Starting line Okpareke +22. 3.2% split their ticket. About 318 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +33

The top 12 precincts carry 6% of the plan.

How
  • P
    Persuade
    4,803 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Stansbury today.
    +4,803
  • M
    Mobilize
    At least 13,254 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Okpareke's side wins at least 55 percent.
    +1,172
  • C
    Consolidate
    Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Okpareke's way.
    +256

Plus a national shift of 9.5 points of margin (27,017 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true
  1. Okpareke wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Stansbury.
  2. In Precinct 157 (Santa Fe County) and Precinct 13 (Torrance County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 9.5 points toward Okpareke's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The numbers behind it
  • 01
    Crossover regression
    764 precincts, R² 0.981, 116 crossover precincts identified
  • 02
    Monte Carlo
    20,000 seeded simulated elections with a 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -59,600 to 6,020 votes.
  • 03
    Money, FEC candidate totals through June 30
    Okpareke $42,741 cash on hand; Stansbury $416,711.
  • 04
    Call program for this list
    16,278 households, 48,834 dials, about 2,559 live conversations: an estimated $6,454 at published rates.
For the campaign

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Professional live callers on exactly these voters: persuasion, voter ID and ballot chase, with a live dashboard of every conversation. An estimated $6,454 for the full list. Days to launch.

For donors, PACs and committees

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The full plan, the map and the live odds simulator ›All New Mexico races ranked ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official New Mexico Secretary of State precinct returns (2022 and 2024), FEC filings and published polls, as of September 26, 2026. Not affiliated with any candidate or party.