The Political Group · New Mexico 2026 · as of September 26, 2026

Where a dollar moves a New Mexico race.

4 federal races, seen from the underdog's side. Ranked by how far a disciplined voter contact plan moves the underdog's odds, from 20,000 seeded simulations per race built on official precinct returns.

Race	Odds: today → with the plan	Lift	Net votes	Call program
NM-02 Greg Cunningham vs. Gabe Vasquez	29% → 51%	+22 pts	5,655	$4,425 9,393 households	Brief ›
NM-03 Martin Zamora vs. Teresa Leger Fernández	3% → 13%	+10 pts	30,033	$9,677 30,062 households	Brief ›
New Mexico U.S. Senate Larry Marker vs. Ben Ray Luján	<1% → 5%	+5 pts	117,934	$27,007 98,242 households	Brief ›
NM-01 Didi Okpareke vs. Melanie Stansbury	5% → 9%	+4 pts	33,248	$6,454 16,278 households	Brief ›

Lift is the gain in win probability when the plan is executed. Call program: every household on the plan's target list, three attempts each, at published HyperPhonebank rates. Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of each plan: they find the persuadable voters and the supporters so every other dollar lands on the right door.

Upset Brief · NM-02 · Greg Cunningham (R) vs. Gabe Vasquez (D) · incumbent

Cunningham can win. The math closes using 34 percent of what history allows.

Odds today29%

With the plan51%

Net votes to find5,655

Call program$4,425

Where

Precinct 15 (Socorro County) +108
Starting line Vasquez +11. 28.5% split their ticket.
Precinct 52 (Eddy County) +95
Starting line Cunningham +60. 3.0% split their ticket. About 454 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
Precinct 34 (Eddy County) +84
Starting line Cunningham +59. 5.7% split their ticket. About 274 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
Precinct 36 (Eddy County) +77
Starting line Cunningham +72. 5.7% split their ticket. About 137 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
Precinct 50 (Eddy County) +75
Starting line Cunningham +59. 7.2% split their ticket. About 176 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 13% of the plan.

How

Persuade +5,155
Ticket splitters and the 11 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 15,296 leaning Vasquez today.
Mobilize +700
At least 17,542 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Cunningham's side wins at least 55 percent.
Consolidate +83
Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Cunningham's way.

What has to be true

Cunningham wins 17 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Vasquez.
In Precinct 52 (Eddy County) and Precinct 34 (Eddy County), 12 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
No national wave is required. The plan closes at 34 percent of what recent New Mexico results show is possible.
The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

Crossover regression
651 precincts, slope 0.964, R² 0.958, 120 crossover precincts
Monte Carlo
20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -16,058 to 16,887
Cash on hand, June 30
Cunningham $794,187 · Vasquez $2,378,703
Call program
9,393 households, 28,180 dials, about 1,477 live conversations and 504 voter IDs, at $0.4711 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Run this plan This brief on its own page ›Full plan, map and live simulator ›

Upset Brief · NM-03 · Martin Zamora (R) vs. Teresa Leger Fernández (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 8.0-point national wave.

Odds today3%

With the plan13%

Net votes to find30,033

Call program$9,677

Where

Precinct 37 (Lea County) +67
Starting line Zamora +73. 4.0% split their ticket. About 243 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
Precinct 18 (Curry County) +65
Starting line Zamora +52. 2.0% split their ticket. About 330 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
Precinct 10 (Lea County) +61
Starting line Zamora +72. 3.9% split their ticket. About 201 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
Precinct 69 (San Juan County) +55
Starting line Zamora +58. 5.1% split their ticket. About 198 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
Precinct 57 (San Juan County) +55
Starting line Zamora +65. 3.9% split their ticket. About 180 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 6% of the plan.

How

Persuade +6,312
6,312 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Leger Fernández today.
Mobilize +4,742
At least 30,166 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Zamora's side wins at least 55 percent.
Consolidate +273
Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Zamora's way.

Plus a 8-point national shift (18,707 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

Zamora wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Leger Fernández.
In Precinct 37 (Lea County) and Precinct 18 (Curry County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 8.0 points toward Zamora's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

Crossover regression
738 precincts, slope 0.976, R² 0.964, 144 crossover precincts
Monte Carlo
20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -46,510 to 8,744
Cash on hand, June 30
Zamora $242,569 · Fernández $666,975
Call program
30,062 households, 90,187 dials, about 4,726 live conversations and 1,612 voter IDs, at $0.3219 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Run this plan This brief on its own page ›Full plan, map and live simulator ›

Upset Brief · New Mexico U.S. Senate · Larry Marker (R) vs. Ben Ray Luján (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 9.2-point national wave.

Odds today<1%

With the plan5%

Net votes to find117,934

Call program$27,007

Where

Bernalillo County +15,314
Starting line Luján +29. 15,022 persuadable voters leaning Luján; 66,691 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
Santa Fe County +4,064
Starting line Luján +60. 3,937 persuadable voters leaning Luján; 14,317 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
San Juan County +3,899
Starting line Marker +22. 2,525 persuadable voters leaning Luján; 12,919 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
Sandoval County +3,774
Starting line Luján +14. 3,671 persuadable voters leaning Luján; 18,570 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.
Dona Ana County +3,415
Starting line Luján +21. 3,270 persuadable voters leaning Luján; 27,828 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022.

The top 12 counties carry 82% of the plan.

How

Persuade +45,000
Ticket splitters and the 9 percent still undecided in the latest poll: 45,000 leaning Luján today.
Mobilize +6,305
At least 49,521 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in counties where Marker's side wins at least 55 percent.
Consolidate +1,001
Voters who went third party in recent races, in the counties that lean Marker's way.

Plus a 9.2-point national shift (65,628 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

Marker wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters and undecided voters now leaning Luján.
In the precincts Marker's side carries in Lea County and San Juan County, 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 9.2 points toward Marker's side between now and November 3.
The starting line comes from published 2026 polls, including campaign or party sponsored polls where those are the only ones; if the true gap is different, so is the plan.

The numbers behind it

Crossover regression
2,156 precincts, slope 0.942, R² 0.976, 368 crossover precincts
Monte Carlo
20,000 seeded simulations, 5-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -129,096 to -986
Cash on hand, June 30
Marker $11,850 · Luján $4,396,754
Call program
98,242 households, 294,727 dials, about 15,444 live conversations and 5,266 voter IDs, at $0.2749 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Run this plan This brief on its own page ›Full plan, map and live simulator ›

Upset Brief · NM-01 · Didi Okpareke (R) vs. Melanie Stansbury (D) · incumbent

A long shot on the math: it takes a 9.5-point national wave.

Odds today5%

With the plan9%

Net votes to find33,248

Call program$6,454

Where

Precinct 13 (Torrance County) +38
Starting line Okpareke +40. 4.1% split their ticket. About 199 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
Precinct 1 (Guadalupe County) +37
Starting line Stansbury +15. 12.0% split their ticket.
Precinct 157 (Santa Fe County) +36
Starting line Okpareke +50. 3.4% split their ticket. About 165 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
Precinct 7 (Torrance County) +36
Starting line Okpareke +47. 3.3% split their ticket. About 169 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
Precinct 10 (Chaves County) +35
Starting line Okpareke +72. 2.6% split their ticket. About 106 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).

The top 12 precincts carry 6% of the plan.

How

Persuade +4,803
4,803 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Stansbury today.
Mobilize +1,172
At least 13,254 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Okpareke's side wins at least 55 percent.
Consolidate +256
Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Okpareke's way.

Plus a 9.5-point national shift (27,017 votes) that no campaign controls.

What has to be true

Okpareke wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Stansbury.
In Precinct 157 (Santa Fe County) and Precinct 13 (Torrance County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
The national environment moves about 9.5 points toward Okpareke's side between now and November 3.
No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.

The numbers behind it

Crossover regression
764 precincts, slope 0.969, R² 0.981, 116 crossover precincts
Monte Carlo
20,000 seeded simulations, 7-point baseline error. 90% range of the final margin with the plan: -59,600 to 6,020
Cash on hand, June 30
Okpareke $42,741 · Stansbury $416,711
Call program
16,278 households, 48,834 dials, about 2,559 live conversations and 873 voter IDs, at $0.3965 per household (published HyperPhonebank rate)

Run this plan This brief on its own page ›Full plan, map and live simulator ›

Independent analysis by The Political Group from official New Mexico Secretary of State precinct returns, FEC filings and published polls. Baseline error and plan efficacy are stated assumptions shown on each race page. Not affiliated with any candidate or party. Text or call Frank Carrasco, 469.639.1600.