New Mexico · U.S. House · District 1 · November 3, 2026

What it would take for Didi Okpareke.

Stansbury starts 11.7 points ahead on our starting line from recent official results. Campaign work can move about 6,231 net votes toward Okpareke, a 2.2-point gain. Winning outright would take a 9.5-point national wave on top of that. Here is the plan that makes Okpareke the one standing if one comes.

33,248
net votes between Okpareke and a win
37
days to election day. Early voting opens October 6.
11.7 pts
Stansbury lead, our starting line from recent results
In short

A long shot on the math: it takes a 9.5-point national wave.

Odds today5%
Odds with the plan9%
Net votes to find33,248
WherePrecinct 13 (Torrance County), Precinct 1 (Guadalupe County), Precinct 157 (Santa Fe County)
Underdog UpdateSeptember 26, 2026. Underdog plan published. Starting line: Stansbury +11.7. Didi Okpareke needs 33,248 net votes. Odds 5% today, 9% with the plan.
The number

142,396 votes.

That is half of the 284,791 ballots we expect in this race, plus one. Where Okpareke stands today, and what is missing:

124,941 Didi Okpareke baseline
158,188 Melanie Stansbury baseline

Starting line: a weighted blend of the official 2022 and 2024 results in this district (House, President, Governor). No 2026 polls have been published. 2026 turnout modeled on 2022, the last midterm.

The odds

5% today. 9% with the plan.

We ran this race 20,000 times with realistic error on every assumption. Drag the slider to see the odds move as the campaign captures more of what history says is available.

Okpareke wins in
9%
of 20,000 simulated elections
With no plan
5%
tieOkpareke loses by 78,425wins by 24,129
How much of what history allows the campaign achieves100%
The plan on this page sits at 100%. Median outcome at this setting: Okpareke short by 26,967.

Each simulation draws the starting line with an error of 7 points of margin (no 2026 polls, so the starting line comes from history and carries more error) and lets the plan over- or under-deliver by 30 percent. Seeded and reproducible; the method and data are at the bottom of the page.

Three moves

The gap closes three ways.

Change minds. Bring out voters who skip midterms. Win back the third-party vote. Every pool below is counted from official precinct returns and published polls.

Persuade
4,803
net votes in the plan, from a pool of 4,803

Who. 4,803 voters who split their ticket in recent elections and lean Stansbury today.

How. Live conversations on the call list that matters: voters who crossed party lines, plus the undecided. Okpareke needs to win 50 percent of the ones now leaning Stansbury.

Mobilize
1,172
net votes in the plan, from a pool of 13,254

Who. At least 13,254 people who voted in 2024 but not in 2022, in precincts where Okpareke's side wins at least 55 percent.

How. Voter ID calls to people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022, then a ballot chase until each one has voted.

Consolidate
256
net votes in the plan, from a pool of 731

Who. Voters who went third party in recent races, in the precincts that lean Okpareke's way.

How. A direct appeal to voters who went third party last time. They have already shown they will leave the two-party default.

Together: 6,231 net votes against a gap of 33,248. Still 27,017 short. The rest needs a national shift of about 9.5 points that no campaign controls.

Where it is won

12 precincts carry 6% of it.

Ranked by the net votes each one gives the plan. The darker the county, the more of the upset lives there.

Bernalillo County: 3,495 net votes in the planCatron CountyChaves County: 121 net votes in the planCibola CountyColfax CountyCurry CountyDe Baca County: 50 net votes in the planDoña Ana CountyEddy CountyGrant CountyGuadalupe County: 101 net votes in the planHarding CountyHidalgo CountyLea CountyLincoln County: 386 net votes in the planLos Alamos CountyLuna CountyMcKinley CountyMora CountyOtero County: 5 net votes in the planQuay CountyRio Arriba CountyRoosevelt CountySan Juan CountySan Miguel CountySandoval County: 1,038 net votes in the planSanta Fe County: 196 net votes in the planSierra CountySocorro CountyTaos CountyTorrance County: 368 net votes in the planUnion CountyValencia County: 473 net votes in the planBernalilloLincolnSandovalTorranceValencia
Fewer net votesMore net votes for the upset
  1. 01
    Precinct 13 (Torrance County)mobilize
    Starting line Okpareke +40. 4.1% split their ticket. About 199 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +38
  2. 02
    Precinct 1 (Guadalupe County)persuade
    Starting line Stansbury +15. 12.0% split their ticket.
    +37
  3. 03
    Precinct 157 (Santa Fe County)mobilize
    Starting line Okpareke +50. 3.4% split their ticket. About 165 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +36
  4. 04
    Precinct 7 (Torrance County)mobilize
    Starting line Okpareke +47. 3.3% split their ticket. About 169 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +36
  5. 05
    Precinct 10 (Chaves County)mobilize
    Starting line Okpareke +72. 2.6% split their ticket. About 106 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +35
  6. 06
    Precinct 138 (Sandoval County)mobilize
    Starting line Okpareke +22. 3.2% split their ticket. About 318 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +33
  7. 07
    Precinct 1 (Chaves County)mobilize
    Starting line Okpareke +72. 4.9% split their ticket. About 94 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +33
  8. 08
    Precinct 57 (Valencia County)persuade
    Starting line Okpareke +27. 5.8% split their ticket. About 146 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +32
  9. 09
    Precinct 85 (Santa Fe County)mobilize
    Starting line Okpareke +46. 1.5% split their ticket. About 165 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +31
  10. 10
    Precinct 5 (Valencia County)persuade
    Starting line Okpareke +26. 7.1% split their ticket. About 149 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +29
  11. 11
    Precinct 3 (Guadalupe County)persuade
    Starting line Okpareke +7. 13.1% split their ticket.
    +29
  12. 12
    Precinct 541 (Bernalillo County)persuade
    Starting line Okpareke +28. 6.2% split their ticket. About 94 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (estimate).
    +29
What the numbers say that the polls do not

The hidden path.

Precinct 13 (Torrance County) carries the most.

Precinct 13 (Torrance County) gives this plan more net votes than any other precinct: 38. It sits at Okpareke +40 on our starting line, and 4.1 percent of its voters split their ticket in recent elections.

Precinct 157 (Santa Fe County) is a turnout race.

Okpareke's side leads Precinct 157 (Santa Fe County) by about 50 points on our starting line, and it cast about 165 more ballots in 2024 than in 2022 (an estimate). Roughly that many of its 2024 voters sat out the last midterm; bringing enough of them back nets 28 votes there.

Precinct 3 (Guadalupe County) splits its ticket the most.

Of the precincts in this plan, Precinct 3 (Guadalupe County) has the highest share of ticket splitters: 13.1 percent. That is where a persuasion call is most likely to reach someone open to crossing over.

Spend it where it counts.

As of June 30, 2026, Stansbury had $417K in cash on hand to Okpareke's $43K. That is exactly why the plan puts every dollar on the few places listed here instead of the whole map.

The evidence

Where voters cross over.

Every dot is a precinct. If no one split a ticket, every dot would sit on the line. The orange ones are where Okpareke's side lost voters it won further up the ballot.

-100-100-80-80-60-60-40-40-20-2000+20+20+40+40+60+60+80+80+100+100Okpareke's side, President 2024 margin (points)U.S. House 2024 margin (points)
Precincts
764
Slope
0.969
R²
0.981
Residual SD
3.7 pts
Crossover precincts
116

Weighted least squares, one point per precinct, weighted by ballots cast. Orange precincts sit more than one residual standard deviation below the line: Okpareke's side did worse there in this race than the top of the ticket predicts. Hover any dot for the precinct.

The next 37 days

Voting starts October 6.

  1. Now to October 5
    Find them

    Voter ID calls across the persuasion list in these precincts. Every conversation tags the voter: with Okpareke, with Stansbury, or undecided. The undecided become the persuasion universe; the supporters become the ballot chase list.

  2. October 6 to 16
    Persuade

    Second conversations with every undecided and soft voter, built around the one issue they named on the first call. The goal is 4,803 net votes from people who have crossed party lines before.

  3. October 17 to 24
    Bank the ballots

    In-person early voting opens October 6 at county clerk offices, with more sites from October 17, and runs through October 31. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Chase every supporter's mail ballot request until it is returned, and move supporters to early voting while it is open.

  4. October 25 to November 2
    Turn them out

    The drop-off voters: people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022. At least 13,254 of them live where Okpareke is favored. Absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on November 3; a postmark does not count. Absentee ballot requests must be received by October 20.

  5. November 3
    Election day

    Polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. New Mexico offers same-day registration at polling places in the voter's county on Election Day, with photo ID and proof of address. The last calls go to identified supporters who have not voted, with their polling place in hand.

What has to be true

No wishful thinking.

Official results in this district: the Democratic nominee carried the 2024 House race by 12.7 points; Harris carried the 2024 presidential race by 12.7 points; Lujan Grisham carried the 2022 governor's race by 7.9 points.

  1. Okpareke wins 50 percent of the ticket splitters now leaning Stansbury.
  2. In Precinct 157 (Santa Fe County) and Precinct 13 (Torrance County), 35 percent of the people who voted in 2024 but skipped 2022 come back and vote.
  3. The national environment moves about 9.5 points toward Okpareke's side between now and November 3.
  4. No 2026 public poll exists for this race, so the starting line is a weighted blend of official recent results; the first real poll will move it.
The work

2,559 conversations.

That is how many live voter conversations this plan takes: about 48,834 dials to 16,278 households, before the last ballot is cast.

16K
households on the target list
49K
dials across three attempts
2,559
live conversations: persuasion, voter ID, ballot chase

Call list: every ticket splitter and undecided voter in the targeted places (you cannot tell which way they lean before the call), every targeted drop-off voter, and the reachable third-party voters. About 69 households for every 100 voters on the list, three attempts each, and a 5.24 percent live answer rate per attempt, the per-program average across 1.2 million real 2026 dials in our published benchmarks.

HyperPhonebank

We run this list.

Calls are the voter ID and ballot chase engine of this plan. They find the persuadable voters and the supporters, so every other dollar lands on the right door. The full call program for this list is an estimated $6,454 at our published rates: 16,278 households, three attempts each.

Professional live callers working exactly these precincts: persuasion on the ticket splitters, voter ID on the fence, ballot chase on every absentee request until it is returned. A live dashboard shows every conversation as it happens. Days to launch, not weeks.

The candidates

Who is on the ballot.

Underdog

Didi Okpareke (R)

Rio Rancho pharmacist and University of New Mexico College of Pharmacy graduate who founded her own compounding pharmacy, Olive Tree Compounding Pharmacy. The daughter of Nigerian immigrants, she won 86% of the delegate vote at the state GOP pre-primary convention and campaigns on health care access, federal spending and economic growth.

Cash on hand $42,741 and $100,340 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Favorite · incumbent

Melanie Stansbury (D)

U.S. representative for the 1st District since 2021 and a former state representative (2019 to 2021). Born in Farmington and raised in Albuquerque, she worked as a science educator, an Office of Management and Budget program examiner and a U.S. Senate committee staffer, and holds a master's degree from Cornell.

Cash on hand $416,711 and $1,353,564 raised since January 1, 2025, per FEC reports through June 30, 2026.

Underdog Updates

What changed, and when.

We re-run this race as new polls, fundraising reports and early vote counts arrive. Every change to the numbers is logged here.

  1. September 26, 2026
    Underdog plan published

    Starting line: Stansbury +11.7. Didi Okpareke needs 33,248 net votes. Odds 5% today, 9% with the plan.

Share this plan. Running this campaign, or backing it? This page is yours to share with your team and supporters.
Share

Questions

Can Didi Okpareke win New Mexico's 1st Congressional District in 2026?

Only with help from the national environment. Campaign work can move about 6,231 net votes; the gap is 33,248. The rest would take a 9.5-point national shift.

Where are the votes Didi Okpareke needs?

Ranked by net votes in the plan: Precinct 13 (Torrance County), Precinct 1 (Guadalupe County), Precinct 157 (Santa Fe County), Precinct 7 (Torrance County), Precinct 10 (Chaves County). Persuadable voters are counted from ticket splitting in 2022 and 2024 official returns; turnout targets are people who voted in 2024 and skipped 2022.

How many voters does Didi Okpareke need to persuade?

About 2,402 voters who lean Melanie Stansbury today, each worth two votes of margin when they switch. That is 50 percent of the 4,803 persuadable voters leaning Melanie Stansbury.

When does early voting start in New Mexico in 2026?

In-person early voting in New Mexico opens October 6, 2026 at county clerk offices, expands to more sites on October 17, and ends October 31. Online and mail registration closes October 6, and same-day registration is available in person during early voting and on Election Day. Absentee ballot requests must be received by October 20, and absentee ballots must be received by 7 p.m. on Election Day; postmarks do not count.

Who made this analysis?

The Political Group, an independent campaign services firm, from official New Mexico Secretary of State precinct returns, Census data, FEC filings and published polls. It is not affiliated with any candidate or party.

Method and sources

Precinct math from official New Mexico Secretary of State returns for 2022 and 2024, projected onto current district lines. Polls, ratings and fundraising as published on the dates shown. This is independent analysis by The Political Group, as of September 26, 2026. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by any candidate or party, and it is written for every campaign that starts behind.

Statistics: a weighted least squares crossover regression on every precinct, and 20,000 seeded Monte Carlo simulations. The baseline error (7 points of margin) and plan efficacy spread (30 percent) are our stated assumptions. Download the precinct data (CSV, ready for JASP). Free to cite under CC BY 4.0 with a link to this page.

Race coverage

More New Mexico underdogs

New Mexico U.S. Senate
What it would take for Larry Marker
117,934 net votes to find
NM-02
How Greg Cunningham wins
5,655 net votes to find
NM-03
What it would take for Martin Zamora
30,033 net votes to find